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Jonathan's avatar

As a Florida resident, I'm very skeptical of achieving the 60%threshold for both the marijuana(#3) and abortion(#4) amendments; the state and county Republican REC's are now including defeat of both in their GOTV lit along with DeSantis using tax payer dollars for their defeat as well(hoping I'm wrong, but I don't think that I am); I should add that I have personal friends who are strong democratic party voters that strongly oppose the marijuana amendment

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michaelflutist's avatar

What are REC's? Anyway, it's interesting to get your views, because looking at the polling, I was expecting both referenda to win. With abortion rights leading 58-35, whoever is undecided, there's plenty of room to go over 60.

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Jonathan's avatar

Republican Executive Committee; they are the storm troopers if you will

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Jonathan's avatar

If I had a forced handicap; I'd say #3(marijuana) fails and #4(abortion) is 50\50(but millions of voters will use the REC recs from top to bottom of their ballot); basically meaning that I think the undecided are heavily R voters that will end up voting against(like I said, I really am hoping I'm wrong but those slate cards might be a killer for both); I should add that I am personally strongly in favor of both amendments

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michaelflutist's avatar

What I've noticed is that voters don't hesitate to vote for Republicans while voting against them on issues, so it shouldn't surprise us if people vote straight Republican tickets but disregard their referendum voting advice. The 60% requirement in Florida is a considerable wrinkle, but Florida is also a whole lot less Republican than states like Arkansas that have voted as I described. Is marijuana legalization very unpopular with retirees?

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Jonathan's avatar

Honestly, I would think not but I am amazed at the number of my Democratic party friends that will vote no on #3 and yes on #4; I think your points are very valid but the 60% threshold kinda reminds me of the Democratic ceiling in Mississippi; that last 3-4% points is extremely difficult to navigate

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michaelflutist's avatar

I take your point on the last few points. Your friends are anecdotal, though.

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Jonathan's avatar

Absolutely, but, in theory they 'should' be voting for; but for their own reasons will be against

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Andrew's avatar

Totally agree. We all could use some advice on which candidates to vote for, especially for the more obscure races. But, a ballot question? Nah nah nah, let me get my readers out. Even if not all people are smart enough to understand certain ballot initiatives, I bet a heavy, heavy majority of voters think they are.

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ClimateHawk's avatar

In OH weed outran abortion, but by less than a point.

Abortion was +13.2%, 56.6% to 43.4%. Weed was +14.0, 57.0% to 43.0%.

https://www.npr.org/2023/11/07/1209092670/2023-results-key-ohio-elections

Now, I think it is true that lots of folks voted for one and not the other. But in aggregate, weed did run ahead.

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Jonathan's avatar

I don't see that happening here; and as you note, neither surpassed 60%

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ClimateHawk's avatar

That was not the point. 60% or not. Weed outran abortion. I bet that happens again.

I would not have thought it would in OH, but it did.

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Jonathan's avatar

I think you are wrong; we shall see

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

I can see a decent case for weed running behind slightly in FL just because of a large senior Dem population that could have some No on 3 yes on 4 votes. Anecdotally my 60-year-old moderate Dem father is excited to vote yes on 3 hah.

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