It was posted at the end of the day yesterday but why does everyone think these generally horrific GOP internals were leaked this weekend?
The only bright spot is in Wisconsin where Hovde is surging. Every other race was looking bad for the GOP. In my opinion the only reason you leak something like this is either 1) to sound the alarm or …
It was posted at the end of the day yesterday but why does everyone think these generally horrific GOP internals were leaked this weekend?
The only bright spot is in Wisconsin where Hovde is surging. Every other race was looking bad for the GOP. In my opinion the only reason you leak something like this is either 1) to sound the alarm or 2) to throw off the other side. Maybe they want us to rush into Texas and get complacent in Ohio?
It's just very strange to me that something like this was put out there. As for Florida not being in the mix, I bet they didn't even test it. McConnell is on his way out and will not even spend money on polling his enemy's territory.
We need to help Baldwin! Momentum is against her!!
We are less than 3 weeks out. Money at this point is probably not going to make a huge difference in saturated races. Nebraska perhaps. But not Ohio. For example.
It seemed to have been written for a top level super pac donor. It has levels of detail not seen in internals released to the media and says "proprietary and confidential." Maybe some major donor saw this and blew his top.
The goal of McConnell’s pac is to elect Republicans in the Senate. i think they see the spread between Trump and the Republican candidate as a continued problem that they
want to close. This was not an inadvertent or leaked set of poll as the title of the memo included for media. Harris and the Democrat candidate for the most part have close spread on the elect numbers. They want to Republican voters of Trump to vote downballot.
I don't know if I would say the numbers were generally horrific. I think the margins in AZ, MD, MT and NV are generally in line with numbers we've seen by other pollsters recently even if the high undecideds are producing numbers that seem a little unbelievable. PA is among the best polls for McCormick, but I wouldn't say its an outlier. The 4 that have diverged most are MI, WI, TX and OH. In the case of Ohio and Michigan, I think it could be a function of this pollster not pushing leaners and with leaners it could be something like 48-47, in Ohio and 49-46 in Michigan. Wisconsin and Texas are the two that look the most like outliers
I disagree, I think they got the most they could out of Barnes; personally, I thought he was kind of a weak candidate that was propped up as much as humanly possible
Agreed. Considering the riots after George Floyd next door in MN, running a black man for Senate two years later was going to elicit political attacks that would be more potent. We lost bc of exactly why many of us thought we could lose. Also didn’t help that he was a young up and comer vs a long-time politician voters knew.
Smart that WI Dems have positioned Sarah Godlewski to run in 2028 if she can win SoS in 2026. Which, that’s a long time and some ifs when it comes to politics. Who knows, maybe someone better will come along. But, laying the groundwork immediately after the loss is what makes WI Dems a party to watch. The state has strong Dem, progressive roots.
Lastly, bc shoulda woulda couldas, Ron Kind was either tired of politics or is a turd. He read the room and wanted to leave WI-3 after barely winning in 2020, which was fair. But, I wonder if he assumed crappy midterm during a Dem POTUS, why bother for Senate in 2022? Bc then the GOP did mostly terrible and he could’ve been a Senator. I don’t think it’s much of a question that he would’ve won. It’s more of would it have still been a squeaker, or a solid 5%? Johnson really is a lucky SOB. WI Dems know it and hate it.
"There was a question here about the source of Godlewski’s wealth.
In briefly looking into that, I realized that her husband Max Duckworth appears to have been the highest ranking of 4 individuals named in the $0.25 billion 2012 FERC settlement with Constellation Energy over their 2007-08 illegal market manipulation of several of the country’s wholesale power markets. The 4 individuals were named in the settlement and prohibited from engaging in physical or financial energy trading.
Duckworth’s LinkedIn Bio indicates to me that he was also significantly involved in trading at the company during an earlier period when they engaged in market manipulation back in the 2000-2001 CA power crisis. "
Flashback to 2016, I was SUPREMELY confident that Hillary Clinton & Russ Feingold had Wisconsin in the bag.
Imagine my horror when the winners were Donald Trump & Ron Johnson. Ever since then, I've avoided complacency and see no race on the map as safe. Hopefully Democrats in Wisconsin are feeling the same way!! 💙🇺🇲
It was posted at the end of the day yesterday but why does everyone think these generally horrific GOP internals were leaked this weekend?
The only bright spot is in Wisconsin where Hovde is surging. Every other race was looking bad for the GOP. In my opinion the only reason you leak something like this is either 1) to sound the alarm or 2) to throw off the other side. Maybe they want us to rush into Texas and get complacent in Ohio?
It's just very strange to me that something like this was put out there. As for Florida not being in the mix, I bet they didn't even test it. McConnell is on his way out and will not even spend money on polling his enemy's territory.
We need to help Baldwin! Momentum is against her!!
Perhaps to motivate donors?
We are less than 3 weeks out. Money at this point is probably not going to make a huge difference in saturated races. Nebraska perhaps. But not Ohio. For example.
Good point.
There is a strong possibility that they are NOT strategic masters. Just saying.
It's McConnells PAC. They are pretty strategic love him or hate him.
It seemed to have been written for a top level super pac donor. It has levels of detail not seen in internals released to the media and says "proprietary and confidential." Maybe some major donor saw this and blew his top.
The goal of McConnell’s pac is to elect Republicans in the Senate. i think they see the spread between Trump and the Republican candidate as a continued problem that they
want to close. This was not an inadvertent or leaked set of poll as the title of the memo included for media. Harris and the Democrat candidate for the most part have close spread on the elect numbers. They want to Republican voters of Trump to vote downballot.
I don't know if I would say the numbers were generally horrific. I think the margins in AZ, MD, MT and NV are generally in line with numbers we've seen by other pollsters recently even if the high undecideds are producing numbers that seem a little unbelievable. PA is among the best polls for McCormick, but I wouldn't say its an outlier. The 4 that have diverged most are MI, WI, TX and OH. In the case of Ohio and Michigan, I think it could be a function of this pollster not pushing leaners and with leaners it could be something like 48-47, in Ohio and 49-46 in Michigan. Wisconsin and Texas are the two that look the most like outliers
Wisconsin Democrats need to be firing on all cylinders for Kamala & Tammy, can't get caught napping like 2016!! 💙🇺🇲
I'm a fan of the Wisconsin Democratic party; they know how to win close races
They got caught napping in 2022 too. Mandela Barnes had a very winnable race and everyone ignored him until it was too late.
I disagree, I think they got the most they could out of Barnes; personally, I thought he was kind of a weak candidate that was propped up as much as humanly possible
Agreed. Considering the riots after George Floyd next door in MN, running a black man for Senate two years later was going to elicit political attacks that would be more potent. We lost bc of exactly why many of us thought we could lose. Also didn’t help that he was a young up and comer vs a long-time politician voters knew.
Smart that WI Dems have positioned Sarah Godlewski to run in 2028 if she can win SoS in 2026. Which, that’s a long time and some ifs when it comes to politics. Who knows, maybe someone better will come along. But, laying the groundwork immediately after the loss is what makes WI Dems a party to watch. The state has strong Dem, progressive roots.
Lastly, bc shoulda woulda couldas, Ron Kind was either tired of politics or is a turd. He read the room and wanted to leave WI-3 after barely winning in 2020, which was fair. But, I wonder if he assumed crappy midterm during a Dem POTUS, why bother for Senate in 2022? Bc then the GOP did mostly terrible and he could’ve been a Senator. I don’t think it’s much of a question that he would’ve won. It’s more of would it have still been a squeaker, or a solid 5%? Johnson really is a lucky SOB. WI Dems know it and hate it.
Godlewski is married to a serial white collar crook. She's not who we need representing our party.
I would argue that she'd be better than the alternative
I find nowhere about anything of her husband other than he's a rich investor; do you care to elaborate?
From my comment on DKE 8/25/2021:
"There was a question here about the source of Godlewski’s wealth.
In briefly looking into that, I realized that her husband Max Duckworth appears to have been the highest ranking of 4 individuals named in the $0.25 billion 2012 FERC settlement with Constellation Energy over their 2007-08 illegal market manipulation of several of the country’s wholesale power markets. The 4 individuals were named in the settlement and prohibited from engaging in physical or financial energy trading.
Duckworth’s LinkedIn Bio indicates to me that he was also significantly involved in trading at the company during an earlier period when they engaged in market manipulation back in the 2000-2001 CA power crisis. "
I would think Kind wins that race
As I remember, he declined to run.
The problem in 2022 WI-Sen was that we didn't clear the field for Barnes nearly soon enough, so that his early fundraising suffered.
That and everyone wrote him off due to crappy October polling + Red Wave hype that didn't materialize.
Flashback to 2016, I was SUPREMELY confident that Hillary Clinton & Russ Feingold had Wisconsin in the bag.
Imagine my horror when the winners were Donald Trump & Ron Johnson. Ever since then, I've avoided complacency and see no race on the map as safe. Hopefully Democrats in Wisconsin are feeling the same way!! 💙🇺🇲