All these political outlets thinking that the GOP candidate (who narrowly lost in 2021) has a shot this year, with FDJT in the Oval Office, are deluding themselves.
Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger are the odds-on favorites to win their respective state governor's races this year.
Ciattarelli is not a bad candidate. He came within 3 points not only because of a backlash to shutdowns, etc. If a Democrat were in the white house, I'd give him at least a 50-50 shot. As noted, it's been over 60 years, 1961 actually, since a party has won a third term in a row.
not to quibble (because you are correct) but it's also only been 56 since the dems won 4 in a row--1965. Jack has been running for Governor since Obama was president. His former base-Somerset is fully lost for republicans, and Sherill puts Morris in play. Plus mikie is better than phil
I wasn't a big fan of him trying to use his connections to get his wife elected to the Senate. I realize Tammy has her own connections and accomplishments, and people use their current platforms to get themselves or their friends elected to their next gig all the time, but she never would have been running for Senate if she were not the Governor's spouse. Just more insiders using their privilege to remain insiders.
Yeah, but Andy Kim deserves the credit for actually being the one who got rid of the county lines. Tammy was undoubtedly counting on the county lines to give her the inside track (her entire campaign strategy), and Andy sued for that reason. Tammy was a reason reform was needed, not an instigator of reform.
True, it's highly unlikely that Ciattarelli will be able to replicate Trump's record margins among NJ Latinos and Asians, especially Indian Americans. It will be a good indicator of how bad Democrats demographic woes are for the midterms and 2028.
Barring something unforeseen, I expect Sherrill to win. If for no other reason than Trump.
All these political outlets thinking that the GOP candidate (who narrowly lost in 2021) has a shot this year, with FDJT in the Oval Office, are deluding themselves.
Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger are the odds-on favorites to win their respective state governor's races this year.
Ciattarelli is not a bad candidate. He came within 3 points not only because of a backlash to shutdowns, etc. If a Democrat were in the white house, I'd give him at least a 50-50 shot. As noted, it's been over 60 years, 1961 actually, since a party has won a third term in a row.
not to quibble (because you are correct) but it's also only been 56 since the dems won 4 in a row--1965. Jack has been running for Governor since Obama was president. His former base-Somerset is fully lost for republicans, and Sherill puts Morris in play. Plus mikie is better than phil
She's probably more personable, but I have no real complaints about Murphy.
I wasn't a big fan of him trying to use his connections to get his wife elected to the Senate. I realize Tammy has her own connections and accomplishments, and people use their current platforms to get themselves or their friends elected to their next gig all the time, but she never would have been running for Senate if she were not the Governor's spouse. Just more insiders using their privilege to remain insiders.
Yeah, that was no good. But it worked out in the end. I think he was a good governor.
and ironically if not for Tammy Murphy's run the line may still exist today
Yeah, but Andy Kim deserves the credit for actually being the one who got rid of the county lines. Tammy was undoubtedly counting on the county lines to give her the inside track (her entire campaign strategy), and Andy sued for that reason. Tammy was a reason reform was needed, not an instigator of reform.
Agreed, and I don't think either one will be particularly close...
True, it's highly unlikely that Ciattarelli will be able to replicate Trump's record margins among NJ Latinos and Asians, especially Indian Americans. It will be a good indicator of how bad Democrats demographic woes are for the midterms and 2028.
Being "broadly acceptable" should suffice in a Trump midterm. Suspect she gets to around 53%, at least.
More, probably.
That's fair, I just don't allow myself to be optimistic anymore.
I fully understand. But this is New Jersey.
Also because New Jersey is generally a Likely-D state as a starting rating for any statewide race in a neutral environment.