Perhaps the repulsiveness of the picture explains why only you and I have commented 2.5 hours after the post. Everyone else hit emergency close on their browsers or is still in the bathroom...
Could the Downballot team lay out the special election process and possible timelines for Sherrill's NJ-11 seat? (Caveated "in the event of winning as governor" but I can't imagine she'll lose the general election.) Would also be good to know the early candidate rumors jockeying for her seat (and how to position someone better on policy to succeed her in the House).
Given our very limited resources, we generally wait until we know there's going to be an election before writing about one. We'd have wasted a lot of time over the years if we focused on merely hypothetical elections, because many don't wind up coming about! If Sherrill wins, we will dive right in.
I’m skeptical that Sherrill picks a primary opponent as her LG, especially with how much Fluop went after her (and for that reason, not his faith as somebody was suggesting yesterday…). But who from the legislature would make sense as a good balance for her? Geographical balance seems less important these days than in the past
High up on the list of possible running mates are two state senators, Troy Singleton (D-Delran) and Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), and Passaic Mayor Hector Lora. Singleton, who has strong relationships in state government, could help Sherrill in South Jersey, and Wimberly, a celebrated football coach, is hugely popular among his Trenton colleagues.
Ideological balance might be less of a factor for Sherrill than had someone other than her won the primary, as Sherill defeated candidates who ran to the left (Baraka, Fulop) and right (Gottheimer, Sweeney) of her in the primary.
All these political outlets thinking that the GOP candidate (who narrowly lost in 2021) has a shot this year, with FDJT in the Oval Office, are deluding themselves.
Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger are the odds-on favorites to win their respective state governor's races this year.
Ciattarelli is not a bad candidate. He came within 3 points not only because of a backlash to shutdowns, etc. If a Democrat were in the white house, I'd give him at least a 50-50 shot. As noted, it's been over 60 years, 1961 actually, since a party has won a third term in a row.
not to quibble (because you are correct) but it's also only been 56 since the dems won 4 in a row--1965. Jack has been running for Governor since Obama was president. His former base-Somerset is fully lost for republicans, and Sherill puts Morris in play. Plus mikie is better than phil
I wasn't a big fan of him trying to use his connections to get his wife elected to the Senate. I realize Tammy has her own connections and accomplishments, and people use their current platforms to get themselves or their friends elected to their next gig all the time, but she never would have been running for Senate if she were not the Governor's spouse. Just more insiders using their privilege to remain insiders.
Yeah, but Andy Kim deserves the credit for actually being the one who got rid of the county lines. Tammy was undoubtedly counting on the county lines to give her the inside track (her entire campaign strategy), and Andy sued for that reason. Tammy was a reason reform was needed, not an instigator of reform.
True, it's highly unlikely that Ciattarelli will be able to replicate Trump's record margins among NJ Latinos and Asians, especially Indian Americans. It will be a good indicator of how bad Democrats demographic woes are for the midterms and 2028.
Trump's demand for a mid-decade Congressional gerrymander in Texas to give Republicans an even greater advantage highlights how distorted the district maps already are. Trump carried Texas with 56.14% of the vote, but Republicans hold 25 of Texas's 38 Congressional seats - 65.79%. The discrepancy is not quite as egregious as in North Carolina, but if the Texas districts had been determined fairly, in a nonpartisan fashion, Hakeem Jeffries would now be speaker of the House.
Would be great if they nominate another MAGA wacko just like they did in 2022 Gov., GOP never disappoints. I wonder large Trump's majority in the House and Senate would be if his party didn't nominate wackos and extremists like Walker, Mastriano, Lake, Ganahl.
We need to put an end to this gerrymandering circus. Our house is almost clean now except for Fetterman, who met with Bannon and the CEO of Breitbart. He’ll almost certainly be primaried by Conor Lamb (once a Blue Dog, then moderate Democrat, now a resistance lib). Republicans can afford a Rand Paul, we can't. What we need next is a trifecta by winning the 2026 and 2028 Senate elections. The next Democratic president must pledge to end the filibuster or at least push for meaningful carveouts like for voting rights and redistricting. We should expect some defections, so any path forward will require winning the Senate with a margin of at least a couple of seats.
Flipping Maine and North Carolina is essential, those are obvious targets. Soros' group in Texas is planning a major investment for 2026, and if there’s a historical opportunity there, we can’t afford to miss it. Iowa could also become competitive with a strong Senate candidate, especially since Rob Sand is running for governor and Trump’s numbers are slipping there. Alaska is another state worth watching. It has a small population, a libertarian-leaning culture, less polarization, and a legislature where Republicans and Democrats actually work together. Voters there have also shown a preference for moderates at the national level. Ohio is likely off the table if Sherrod Brown runs for governor, and Florida is essentially gone.
The Senate is fundamentally tilted against us, and it’s deeply frustrating. Four million American citizens can’t vote in federal elections unless they move to the mainland. Our districts are heavily gerrymandered even in blue states, though not nearly as aggressively as on the other side. Our Supreme Court no longer reflects the will of the majority, as most of its justices were appointed by presidents who lost the popular vote. What's worse, they openly operate more like partisan operatives than impartial arbiters of the Constitution. Democrats have been unable to raise taxes on the ultra-wealthy and prevent looming fiscal crises simply because we lack consistent control of the Senate and the House even when we win more votes nationally while Republicans starve the beast with their zombielike obsession with tax cuts and explode our deficits. We "elected" George W. Bush under a broken system, and yet we still call ourselves an advanced democracy. In reality, we haven’t had a true governing trifecta since 2010. Every time Democrats have held nominal control of the Senate, figures like Manchin and Sinema have blocked core parts of the agenda (it doesn't matter for what reasons) making it impossible to govern decisively, even with a majority on paper. Trump will be off the political stage by 2028, and after that, Republicans are likely to stop nominating extremist candidates in swing state Senate races. The window for change is very narrow.
For the record, Fetterman's meeting with Steve Bannon was not planned, at least if we're going by what Fetterman said about his appearance at the restaurant. That said, agreed about cleaning house when it comes to him being primaried.
The restaurant, Butterworth's, is a French-themed restraurant in DC that happens to attract MAGA supporters. I think Fetterman intended to go there to check out the scene knowing this fact.
Possibly although Fetterman may have intended to go there thinking he’d run into Bannon or others there.
I have no idea what makes Butterworth’s attract MAGA but if I were in DC, I wouldn’t mind making a visit and see if there’s any particular kind of discussion going on with MAGA that we aren’t already hearing.
"Trump will be off the political stage by 2028, and after that, Republicans are likely to stop nominating extremist candidates in swing state Senate races."
The first part is uncertain; the second, highly doubtful. Good post, otherwise.
Extremist nominations by the GOP ever since the rise of the Tea Party back in 2009 are pretty much in the same boat. Trump or no Trump, they’re still extremists, especially since they have no interest in ending the Citizens United decision and want to continue to depress Democratic Party base turnout.
The actual question wording was this: "Republican Jack Ciattarelli, an entrepreneur, small business owner and former Assemblyman? Or Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, federal prosecutor and current member of Congress?" Those are fair characterizations, but 'Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor' sounds a lot cooler than 'entrepreneur and small business owner'. They should have just said their names.
Edited: I'm skeptical that Sherrill is actually up 13, but leaving that aside the poll finds her up 66-18 among Latinos who were 19% of the adjusted sample. More evidence that the big red shift in 2024 was largely a one-off?
No, both descriptions are fair and appeal to the average Joe imo.
I also think the red shift among minorities in 2024 was an aberration, otherwise, Trump’s approval wouldn’t be down in Texas, and the early Senate polling there wouldn’t be this competitive. Nationally, his approval has shifted the most among nonwhite voters, Independents and younger people. His coalition is as fragile as ours was and will surely break if we stop taking minority votes for granted.
e.g repeatedly making promises of fixing the broken immigration system with a points based immigration reform and amnesty but not actually doing that (for whatever reasons), not focusing on border enough and shutting it down too late.
And which of these things can be remedied by 2028? Also, sure, punish the Democrats for Sinema, Manchin, et al. in order to bring in people who campaigned on hating immigrants, instead of increasing their pro-immigrant members. Really, my attitude to a large degree is fuck American voters. People running campaigns can't say that; I can! At this rate, we're lucky if there are genuinely contested elections next year in which the winners are allowed to take office, let alone what may happen in 2028.
We can communicate better and project strength and a fundamental change in position on the border in 2028 and also simultaneously promise immigration reform by carving out the filibuster. The next President can say "I camapaigned on this, I have a historic mandate, I won by a landslide" and threaten primaries during backdoor negotiations like Trump. Strong arm Congress basically and be strong on the border and crime but also strong on immigration reform and compassion.
The rise of Trump has told us that unfortunately there are a lot more stupid people and assholes among the American voting public than most of us thought.
The point is that any description of the candidates, even a "fair" one, is going to sway voters in a way that may not accurately represent how they would actually split as they learn more about the candidates. It's better to just do names and party id.
Ciattarelli may be in for a rude awakening if he thinks he will be able to ride on the same kind of success this fall that he got in getting the 2021 race in making it closer.
As weird as NJ is for Democrats at the state level, the NJ primary race was one of the best ones Democrats have had in a long time. Turnout seems to have confirmed this as multiple candidates including Sherrill, Baraka and Fulop got double digit margins in the number of votes.
That's not a good reason to mention or include Democratic presidential primary numbers. At most, you can say they also polled hypothetical presidential primary candidates and leave it at that.
Not worse but not exactly helping him either even if he avoids a prison term post-presidency.
During his first term, Trump Organization started to lose business in its hotels. Then post-presidency Trump moves to FL and stays in Mar-A-Lago only to find there’s an FBI investigation into classified files over there and doesn’t even have the strongest security. He doesn’t even move back to Trump Tower.
If he survives past 2028, he will spend the rest of his days in court (I would love to see him get prison time but it won't happen). And if a future Democratic President appoints an AG with teeth, they need to go after FDJT and his lackeys and throw the book at them.
Not going to play nice when the tables are turned.
Tyler Macallister, former selectman from Mattapoisett, MA, bluefin harpoon fisher, and the host of "Harpoon Hunters" on the Discovery Channel, is considering a bid for MA-09 as a Republican. Incumbent is Democrat Bill Keating.
Harris +11, Warren +2 as noted by Jacob Rubashkin.
MA-09 is the least blue district in the state. All else held equal if we were going to lose a seat it'd be that one. I'm not worried about it for 2026 but it'd be preferable if Keating opted to retire in a year favoring us and not in a future potential republican wave year.
Democrats outperformed the registered partisanship of votes cast in Florida which means that a slice of Republican voters also voted for the Democratic candidates.
The Trump-Musk feud was actually driven by immigration. Traditional Republicans are happy with increased deficits as long as the BBB massively increases funding for the border and deportation. Right Libertarians like Elon, tech right, Rand Paul, Ron Johnson wanted more cuts. MAGA populist Hawley, Bannon and "moderates" Susan Collins and Murkowski wanted less cuts. MAGA populists led by Vance even wanted tax raise on the 1 percent which Trump rebuffed. In order to bring all these factions together, Trump emphasized the funding for ICE and DHS not giving Elon what he wanted which sparked the feud.
Hawley has become a yes since the LA protests which Trump has exploited to pressure holdouts, along with Collins and Murkowski. Musk has expressed regret over the episode.
Guys, PLEASE don't use a Trump photo for any more articles. He makes me sick.
Perhaps the repulsiveness of the picture explains why only you and I have commented 2.5 hours after the post. Everyone else hit emergency close on their browsers or is still in the bathroom...
Ehh you see him all the time, I was thinking big mistake by Mr Cittarelli...big...HUGE.
Why'd you say that really?
I appreciate Dems making gains on margins in R-held districts. But I'd appreciate more gains that turn into flips.
Could the Downballot team lay out the special election process and possible timelines for Sherrill's NJ-11 seat? (Caveated "in the event of winning as governor" but I can't imagine she'll lose the general election.) Would also be good to know the early candidate rumors jockeying for her seat (and how to position someone better on policy to succeed her in the House).
Given our very limited resources, we generally wait until we know there's going to be an election before writing about one. We'd have wasted a lot of time over the years if we focused on merely hypothetical elections, because many don't wind up coming about! If Sherrill wins, we will dive right in.
That's fair, this one just feels almost fait accompli lol. Ty all the same.
Tom Malinowski is apparently seriously considering it in the event of an open special election!! 💙🇺🇲
This NJ Globe piece lays out the deadlines. It was written before the primary so it covers additional candidates, but TL;DR if she wins the Gov and vacates her seat on Jan 20 the primary would be no earlier than late March and general early June. HTH. https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/house-members-state-senators-and-mayors-are-vying-to-be-n-j-governor-what-happens-to-their-seats-if-they-win/
I’m skeptical that Sherrill picks a primary opponent as her LG, especially with how much Fluop went after her (and for that reason, not his faith as somebody was suggesting yesterday…). But who from the legislature would make sense as a good balance for her? Geographical balance seems less important these days than in the past
High up on the list of possible running mates are two state senators, Troy Singleton (D-Delran) and Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), and Passaic Mayor Hector Lora. Singleton, who has strong relationships in state government, could help Sherrill in South Jersey, and Wimberly, a celebrated football coach, is hugely popular among his Trenton colleagues.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/next-up-choosing-a-lt-governor/
Those sound like excellent choices. I had expected incidentally Singleton to be Kim’s eventual successor in NJ-3
Ideological balance might be less of a factor for Sherrill than had someone other than her won the primary, as Sherill defeated candidates who ran to the left (Baraka, Fulop) and right (Gottheimer, Sweeney) of her in the primary.
A fair point
Agreed. There might be something to be said for geographic balance though (i.e. picking a South Jersey running mate).
Barring something unforeseen, I expect Sherrill to win. If for no other reason than Trump.
All these political outlets thinking that the GOP candidate (who narrowly lost in 2021) has a shot this year, with FDJT in the Oval Office, are deluding themselves.
Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger are the odds-on favorites to win their respective state governor's races this year.
Ciattarelli is not a bad candidate. He came within 3 points not only because of a backlash to shutdowns, etc. If a Democrat were in the white house, I'd give him at least a 50-50 shot. As noted, it's been over 60 years, 1961 actually, since a party has won a third term in a row.
not to quibble (because you are correct) but it's also only been 56 since the dems won 4 in a row--1965. Jack has been running for Governor since Obama was president. His former base-Somerset is fully lost for republicans, and Sherill puts Morris in play. Plus mikie is better than phil
She's probably more personable, but I have no real complaints about Murphy.
I wasn't a big fan of him trying to use his connections to get his wife elected to the Senate. I realize Tammy has her own connections and accomplishments, and people use their current platforms to get themselves or their friends elected to their next gig all the time, but she never would have been running for Senate if she were not the Governor's spouse. Just more insiders using their privilege to remain insiders.
Yeah, that was no good. But it worked out in the end. I think he was a good governor.
and ironically if not for Tammy Murphy's run the line may still exist today
Yeah, but Andy Kim deserves the credit for actually being the one who got rid of the county lines. Tammy was undoubtedly counting on the county lines to give her the inside track (her entire campaign strategy), and Andy sued for that reason. Tammy was a reason reform was needed, not an instigator of reform.
Agreed, and I don't think either one will be particularly close...
True, it's highly unlikely that Ciattarelli will be able to replicate Trump's record margins among NJ Latinos and Asians, especially Indian Americans. It will be a good indicator of how bad Democrats demographic woes are for the midterms and 2028.
Being "broadly acceptable" should suffice in a Trump midterm. Suspect she gets to around 53%, at least.
More, probably.
That's fair, I just don't allow myself to be optimistic anymore.
I fully understand. But this is New Jersey.
Also because New Jersey is generally a Likely-D state as a starting rating for any statewide race in a neutral environment.
Trump's demand for a mid-decade Congressional gerrymander in Texas to give Republicans an even greater advantage highlights how distorted the district maps already are. Trump carried Texas with 56.14% of the vote, but Republicans hold 25 of Texas's 38 Congressional seats - 65.79%. The discrepancy is not quite as egregious as in North Carolina, but if the Texas districts had been determined fairly, in a nonpartisan fashion, Hakeem Jeffries would now be speaker of the House.
Did Jared Polis carry CO-03 is his landslide victory? I think flipping the district is possible in a blue wave as Colorado has been becoming bluer.
Edit: Jared Polis: 3rd 50% 47% : Rep: Lauren Boebert
He did win it.
He carried in 50-47 in 2022.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado's_3rd_congressional_district#Recent_election_results_from_statewide_races
Would be great if they nominate another MAGA wacko just like they did in 2022 Gov., GOP never disappoints. I wonder large Trump's majority in the House and Senate would be if his party didn't nominate wackos and extremists like Walker, Mastriano, Lake, Ganahl.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Colorado_gubernatorial_election
It wouldn't be -Trump's- majority if the Republicans weren't nominating completely authoritarian, unapologetically racist candidates.
Good column from Kyle Kondik on the New Jersey results and possible Texas redistricting
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-new-jersey-gubernatorial-race-set-texas-redistricting/
We need to put an end to this gerrymandering circus. Our house is almost clean now except for Fetterman, who met with Bannon and the CEO of Breitbart. He’ll almost certainly be primaried by Conor Lamb (once a Blue Dog, then moderate Democrat, now a resistance lib). Republicans can afford a Rand Paul, we can't. What we need next is a trifecta by winning the 2026 and 2028 Senate elections. The next Democratic president must pledge to end the filibuster or at least push for meaningful carveouts like for voting rights and redistricting. We should expect some defections, so any path forward will require winning the Senate with a margin of at least a couple of seats.
Flipping Maine and North Carolina is essential, those are obvious targets. Soros' group in Texas is planning a major investment for 2026, and if there’s a historical opportunity there, we can’t afford to miss it. Iowa could also become competitive with a strong Senate candidate, especially since Rob Sand is running for governor and Trump’s numbers are slipping there. Alaska is another state worth watching. It has a small population, a libertarian-leaning culture, less polarization, and a legislature where Republicans and Democrats actually work together. Voters there have also shown a preference for moderates at the national level. Ohio is likely off the table if Sherrod Brown runs for governor, and Florida is essentially gone.
The Senate is fundamentally tilted against us, and it’s deeply frustrating. Four million American citizens can’t vote in federal elections unless they move to the mainland. Our districts are heavily gerrymandered even in blue states, though not nearly as aggressively as on the other side. Our Supreme Court no longer reflects the will of the majority, as most of its justices were appointed by presidents who lost the popular vote. What's worse, they openly operate more like partisan operatives than impartial arbiters of the Constitution. Democrats have been unable to raise taxes on the ultra-wealthy and prevent looming fiscal crises simply because we lack consistent control of the Senate and the House even when we win more votes nationally while Republicans starve the beast with their zombielike obsession with tax cuts and explode our deficits. We "elected" George W. Bush under a broken system, and yet we still call ourselves an advanced democracy. In reality, we haven’t had a true governing trifecta since 2010. Every time Democrats have held nominal control of the Senate, figures like Manchin and Sinema have blocked core parts of the agenda (it doesn't matter for what reasons) making it impossible to govern decisively, even with a majority on paper. Trump will be off the political stage by 2028, and after that, Republicans are likely to stop nominating extremist candidates in swing state Senate races. The window for change is very narrow.
For the record, Fetterman's meeting with Steve Bannon was not planned, at least if we're going by what Fetterman said about his appearance at the restaurant. That said, agreed about cleaning house when it comes to him being primaried.
The restaurant, Butterworth's, is a French-themed restraurant in DC that happens to attract MAGA supporters. I think Fetterman intended to go there to check out the scene knowing this fact.
Ohh, I didn't know that. This must be new reporting.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/02/magazine/butterworths-restaurant-washington-trump-maga.html
Maybe, this article spurred him to visit that place.
Possibly although Fetterman may have intended to go there thinking he’d run into Bannon or others there.
I have no idea what makes Butterworth’s attract MAGA but if I were in DC, I wouldn’t mind making a visit and see if there’s any particular kind of discussion going on with MAGA that we aren’t already hearing.
"Trump will be off the political stage by 2028, and after that, Republicans are likely to stop nominating extremist candidates in swing state Senate races."
The first part is uncertain; the second, highly doubtful. Good post, otherwise.
Agreed.
Extremist nominations by the GOP ever since the rise of the Tea Party back in 2009 are pretty much in the same boat. Trump or no Trump, they’re still extremists, especially since they have no interest in ending the Citizens United decision and want to continue to depress Democratic Party base turnout.
The first part is certain. He's term-limited and will not be allowed onto any ballots. Also he'll be 82 so I doubt he'll want to run for a third term.
The first part is certain if the constitution still applies, which is not certain.
The constitution still applies. Just because Trump doesn’t respect it doesn’t mean everyone’s going to sit back and let him do whatever he wants.
The only "everyone" who definitely count are forces that carry weapons.
Not everyone in the military or police is loyal to Trump.
We may unfortunately have the chance to see whether there are significant results from that.
NJ Gov poll Mikie by 13 https://x.com/tencor_7144/status/1932845385292095489
The actual question wording was this: "Republican Jack Ciattarelli, an entrepreneur, small business owner and former Assemblyman? Or Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, federal prosecutor and current member of Congress?" Those are fair characterizations, but 'Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor' sounds a lot cooler than 'entrepreneur and small business owner'. They should have just said their names.
Edited: I'm skeptical that Sherrill is actually up 13, but leaving that aside the poll finds her up 66-18 among Latinos who were 19% of the adjusted sample. More evidence that the big red shift in 2024 was largely a one-off?
No, both descriptions are fair and appeal to the average Joe imo.
I also think the red shift among minorities in 2024 was an aberration, otherwise, Trump’s approval wouldn’t be down in Texas, and the early Senate polling there wouldn’t be this competitive. Nationally, his approval has shifted the most among nonwhite voters, Independents and younger people. His coalition is as fragile as ours was and will surely break if we stop taking minority votes for granted.
Stop taking them for granted by doing what different things?
e.g repeatedly making promises of fixing the broken immigration system with a points based immigration reform and amnesty but not actually doing that (for whatever reasons), not focusing on border enough and shutting it down too late.
And which of these things can be remedied by 2028? Also, sure, punish the Democrats for Sinema, Manchin, et al. in order to bring in people who campaigned on hating immigrants, instead of increasing their pro-immigrant members. Really, my attitude to a large degree is fuck American voters. People running campaigns can't say that; I can! At this rate, we're lucky if there are genuinely contested elections next year in which the winners are allowed to take office, let alone what may happen in 2028.
We can communicate better and project strength and a fundamental change in position on the border in 2028 and also simultaneously promise immigration reform by carving out the filibuster. The next President can say "I camapaigned on this, I have a historic mandate, I won by a landslide" and threaten primaries during backdoor negotiations like Trump. Strong arm Congress basically and be strong on the border and crime but also strong on immigration reform and compassion.
The rise of Trump has told us that unfortunately there are a lot more stupid people and assholes among the American voting public than most of us thought.
The point is that any description of the candidates, even a "fair" one, is going to sway voters in a way that may not accurately represent how they would actually split as they learn more about the candidates. It's better to just do names and party id.
I think a 13-point victory is very plausible.
I would be surprised if it were that high.
Considering how other elections have been going, it could be higher.
Ciattarelli may be in for a rude awakening if he thinks he will be able to ride on the same kind of success this fall that he got in getting the 2021 race in making it closer.
As weird as NJ is for Democrats at the state level, the NJ primary race was one of the best ones Democrats have had in a long time. Turnout seems to have confirmed this as multiple candidates including Sherrill, Baraka and Fulop got double digit margins in the number of votes.
Upper single to lower double digits is what I’m expecting.
FL - [Victory Polling]
2026 Gov. - Jolly v. Donalds Donalds +5.3% D-31.4% R-36.7%,
the rest are undecided and name recognition of both candidates are low, 40-50 percent. It's functioning more like generic D and generic R.
They also polled presidential primaries.
Democratic presidential primary poll results should probably be edited out of our postings, even when it's so early as to be meaningless.
Ugh Trump wasn't even on mainstream social media when he ran rough-shod over the 2024 GOP primary.
He was on Twitter in 2016 when the conservative media led by Murdoch was attacking him left and right.
That's not a good reason to mention or include Democratic presidential primary numbers. At most, you can say they also polled hypothetical presidential primary candidates and leave it at that.
Ok, done.
Q poll Trump at 38-54 and underwater on everything https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3924
Has a President ever burned through the honeymoon phase this fast?
Trump was thinking being POTUS was going to save him from his legal liabilities.
He wasn’t prepared for how worse he’s being treated since he was inaugurated as POTUS. His problem.
Worse than a possible prison term?
Not worse but not exactly helping him either even if he avoids a prison term post-presidency.
During his first term, Trump Organization started to lose business in its hotels. Then post-presidency Trump moves to FL and stays in Mar-A-Lago only to find there’s an FBI investigation into classified files over there and doesn’t even have the strongest security. He doesn’t even move back to Trump Tower.
If he survives past 2028, he will spend the rest of his days in court (I would love to see him get prison time but it won't happen). And if a future Democratic President appoints an AG with teeth, they need to go after FDJT and his lackeys and throw the book at them.
Not going to play nice when the tables are turned.
Yeah, in a nutshell, the presidency is all Trump has left.
More polls like this and 2026 may be a tsunami as opposed to 2018's wave!!
🙏💙🇺🇲😃
Remember, there's still over a year to go before the midterms, so things will likely only further worsen before then.
https://nitter.poast.org/JacobRubashkin/status/1930988506886594808#m
Tyler Macallister, former selectman from Mattapoisett, MA, bluefin harpoon fisher, and the host of "Harpoon Hunters" on the Discovery Channel, is considering a bid for MA-09 as a Republican. Incumbent is Democrat Bill Keating.
Harris +11, Warren +2 as noted by Jacob Rubashkin.
Make of this news what you will.
MA-09 is the least blue district in the state. All else held equal if we were going to lose a seat it'd be that one. I'm not worried about it for 2026 but it'd be preferable if Keating opted to retire in a year favoring us and not in a future potential republican wave year.
I’m pretty sure MA-09 (MA-10 at the time) was the reddist open seat that Democrats were able to hold in 2010. It was around D+5 in 2010.
https://x.com/Wilson__Valdez/status/1932884132436086985
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/06/silence-generals/683106/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
What Trump did at Fort Bragg with our troops on duty was horrifying and a sign of what is coming next.
It’s his personal army. John Roberts.
https://x.com/MappingFL/status/1932610495158125001 : Analysis by Florida Democratic data guru Matthew Isbell
Democrats outperformed the registered partisanship of votes cast in Florida which means that a slice of Republican voters also voted for the Democratic candidates.
Zach Wahls enters Iowa senate race.
https://heartlandsignal.com/2025/06/11/former-iowa-senate-minority-leader-zach-wahls-joins-senate-race-against-joni-ernst/
Too many in a Democratic primary will benefit Phoni Joni, no?! 😲
Only if they try to annihilate each other with a lot of negative attack ads, otherwise, no. It will result in a strong candidate emerging.
Yes, I was texted, as usual. I don't think campaigns are sharing the fact that I always text back "stop."
Because ActBlue is sharing my information is my guess.
I have my doubts of his ability to appeal outside of the five counties that voted for Harris.
The Trump-Musk feud was actually driven by immigration. Traditional Republicans are happy with increased deficits as long as the BBB massively increases funding for the border and deportation. Right Libertarians like Elon, tech right, Rand Paul, Ron Johnson wanted more cuts. MAGA populist Hawley, Bannon and "moderates" Susan Collins and Murkowski wanted less cuts. MAGA populists led by Vance even wanted tax raise on the 1 percent which Trump rebuffed. In order to bring all these factions together, Trump emphasized the funding for ICE and DHS not giving Elon what he wanted which sparked the feud.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/06/07/donald-trump-elon-musk-immigration-00392285
Hawley has become a yes since the LA protests which Trump has exploited to pressure holdouts, along with Collins and Murkowski. Musk has expressed regret over the episode.
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/10/trump-protests-big-bill-los-angeles-dc
https://apnews.com/article/big-beautiful-bill-los-angeles-protest-deportations-cd4894cf9541b15468c39749d9c3b8e
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/11/politics/musk-vance-wiles-phone-call
The worst of "mass deportations" will come after the BBB.
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/11/trump-illegal-immigration-deportations-los-angeles
Miller's quota order for noncriminal deportations and order to raid Home Depot set off the series of events.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2025/06/09/stephen-millers-order-likely-sparked-immigration-arrests-and-protests/
Musk expressing regret isn’t going to help him. He reaped what he sowed from the beginning and seems to forget everything.
He reaped what he sowed, you mean.
Yes. Re-edited what I originally said.