Morning Digest: Why Democrats could pull an upset in Elise Stefanik's district

A bitter feud among Republicans could soon grow much worse

Blake Gendebien, Democratic nominee for New York’s 21st Congressional District. (Credit: Blake Gendebien Facebook)

Leading Off

NY-21

Democrat Blake Gendebien has released a poll showing him in a competitive race for New York’s conservative 21st District—a race that could grow more competitive still if a defeated Republican candidate decides to pursue a third-party bid.

Gendebien’s survey, conducted by Impact Research late last month, finds him trailing wealthy businessman Anthony Constantino by just a 45-44 margin. Just two years ago, though, this sprawling rural district in New York’s North Country voted for Donald Trump 60-39 and for Rep. Elise Stefanik by an even wider 62-38 spread.

A memo from Impact attributes the tight result to Constantino’s deep unpopularity, saying his net favorability stands at -20 while Gendebien, a dairy farmer, enjoys a positive +13 rating. (The pollster did not release raw favorability numbers.)

Constantino, a sticker company CEO known for his violent rhetoric, has sunk to these depths thanks in part to a nasty feud with local Republican leaders, who strongly preferred his primary opponent, Assemblyman Robert Smullen.

Among other things, Constantino claimed last year that the leader of the state Conservative Party “called me to say, ‘We intend to kill you.’” In response, the party’s leader, Gerard Kassar, filed a defamation suit against Constantino for suggesting he did not use a figure of speech but rather intended to murder the candidate.

Constantino, who benefited from Donald Trump’s endorsement, defeated Smullen 59-40, but he may not have seen the last of his former opponent. The Conservative Party, which has its own line on the general election ballot, endorsed Smullen before the primary, and he could still run under its banner in November.

On primary night, as he conceded to Constantino, Smullen didn’t rule out continuing his campaign.

“I am on the Conservative line in November, and we’re going to assess in the coming days what the path forward is,” said in a speech.

The Conservatives reportedly want Smullen to forge ahead, and in comments to Politico on Thursday, Kassar didn’t seek to dissuade him.

“The party itself has no role whatsoever, until an action is taken by the candidate,” Kassar said. “Bob has not indicated to me anything other than what has been public, which is that he’s interested in staying on but is thinking it through and will make a final decision soon.”

Smullen, though, could still hit the eject button. In the past, New York made it especially difficult for candidates in his situation to remove their names from the ballot, but a little-noticed law passed in 2021 now makes it easy.

Under that statute, a candidate who is nominated for the same office by two or more different parties but loses the nomination for one of them can withdraw from any or all remaining ballot lines within 10 days of the primary. For Smullen, that deadline is Friday.

If he chooses to continue his campaign, though, that could split the right-leaning vote and open the door even wider for Gendebien. It would also give the GOP unwanted flashbacks to 2009, when Republicans and Conservatives fielded rival candidates in a special election for a previous version of the 21st District, allowing Democrats to pull off a historic upset.

It would be a fitting fate for Constantino, though. Last year, when it appeared there would be a special election to replace Stefanik, he warned Republican leaders that if they did not tap him as their nominee, he might run as an independent.

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SCOTUS' war on voting rights

Election Recaps

LA-Sen

Rep. Julia Letlow defeated state Treasurer John Fleming by a 57-43 margin to win Saturday’s GOP primary runoff in Louisiana. She’s now the heavy favorite to succeed Sen. Bill Cassidy, whose political career came to an end last month when he finished third in the first round of voting.

Late polling suggested that Letlow might be in trouble, but Donald Trump’s backing proved to be enough. In November, she’ll face farmer Jamie Davis, who won the Democratic runoff in a landslide.

SD-SoS

South Dakota Secretary of State Monae Johnson, who ousted an incumbent four years ago for his insufficient fealty to right-wing causes, was herself defeated by a more extremist candidate at Saturday’s GOP convention.

State Rep. Heather Baxter, running on a platform to count all votes by hand, won the support of 59% of the approximately 730 delegates in attendance, while just 40% backed Johnson. (In South Dakota, parties select nominees for downballot statewide offices at conventions rather than through traditional primaries.)

In 2022, though, it was Johnson who defeated Secretary of State Steve Barnett by embracing the cause of “election integrity”—a rallying cry for conservatives who baselessly believe that American elections are plagued with fraud.

As South Dakota Searchlight’s Joshua Haiar explained in a recent preview of this year’s contest, Johnson won that race with the support of activists who’ve demanded the state hand-count ballots—a method that studies have shown is slower, more expensive, and above all, less accurate than machine-counting.

But, as Haiar noted, those activists felt betrayed after Johnson failed to implement hand counting and instead turned to Baxter, a member of the state’s Freedom Caucus.

Earlier this month, though, Baxter lost her own primary for the state House (she was both running for reelection and challenging Johnson) in the midst of an ongoing GOP civil war that has seen huge numbers of incumbent lawmakers fall to intra-party opponents in recent years.

Baxter will now face Democrat Terrence Davis, a former state trooper, in the November general election. The last Democrat to win this post was Lorna Herseth, the grandmother of former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, who secured her second and final term in 1974.

Senate

AK-Sen

An Alaska judge restored retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan to the ballot on Friday, reversing a recent decision by election officials to disqualify him on the grounds that he wasn’t a “good-faith” candidate.

However, those officials immediately appealed to the state Supreme Court, which scheduled a hearing for Monday. Republicans have argued that Sullivan’s candidacy is intended to confuse voters who might otherwise support GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, who is seeking reelection this year.

MI-Sen

The NRSC is trying to boost former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed ahead of the Aug. 4 Democratic primary for Michigan’s open Senate seat with a new ad calling him “[t]oo radical for Michigan.”

The spot features a clip of El-Sayed, the most outspoken progressive in the race, saying he’s the only candidate with “the courage to say that we oughta abolish ICE.” It adds that he “campaigned with anti-Israel radical Hasan Piker,” “called to abolish private health insurance,” and is “championing socialist tax hikes with Sen. Bernie Sanders.”

It’s not clear how much the NRSC is spending on the ad.

Recent polls have shown El-Sayed leading his two Democratic opponents, Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow. Republicans, meanwhile, have united around former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost the race for Michigan’s other Senate seat in 2024.

Governors

AK-Gov

State Sen. Matt Claman dropped his bid for Alaska’s open governorship just ahead of Saturday’s deadline for candidates to remove their names from the Aug. 18 primary ballot, leaving former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and state Sen. Tom Begich as the two remaining Democrats in the race.

The contest remains very crowded, though. In addition to Kreiss-Tomkins and Begich, a dozen Republicans and three independents are all vying to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy. The top four vote-getters, regardless of party, will advance out of the primary to compete in a general election that will be decided, if necessary, through ranked-choice voting.

Mayors & County Leaders

Chicago, IL Mayor

Rep. Mike Quigley on Saturday became the latest candidate to announce a campaign against Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson in next year’s officially nonpartisan contest.

Quigley, who has represented the 5th Congressional District since 2009, flirted with running for mayor in both 2019 and 2023 only to stay put, but he said earlier this year that he planned to run against Johnson, a fellow Democrat who’s been plagued by low approval ratings for much of his term.

Some of Quigley’s current constituents, though, weren’t thrilled to see him eye a promotion at the same time he was seeking reelection to his current job.

Matthew Conroy, one of three little-known challengers who ran against Quigley in the March primary, suggested at a candidate forum that the congressman was already concentrating on his next race instead of focusing on the 5th District.

Quigley countered that he remained attentive to his duties in the House and his constituents but otherwise, as Block Club Chicago put it, “did not offer a direct rebuttal to Conroy’s critique.”

Quigley ended up turning back Conroy 65-25, a result that, while not close, was unimpressive for a longtime incumbent.

The congressman, though, argues that he’s the best person to lead America’s third-largest city.

“Chicago is in crisis,” he told CBS Chicago in January as he previewed his pitch. “I’ve given most [of] my adult life to public service in Chicago. But I see it in a situation where someone has to lead at a time when there’s a lack of leadership.”

Poll Pile

• PA-08: Impact Research for Paige Cognetti:

  • Cognetti (D): 46, Rob Bresnahan (R-inc): 45.

• PA-08: Lake Research Partners for House Majority PAC:

  • Cognetti (D): 47, Bresnahan (R-inc): 45.