Call it schadenfreude, but it’s been a genuine pleasure watching Elise Stefanik’s political career – as well as the brief promise of her diplomatic career – go up in flames.
Nothing would please me more than now seeing a Democrat defeat her heir in this once-bright-Red Congressional district. Fingers crossed!
she'll probably get aconsolation prize post-midterms and try to leverage that into something in a future GOP admin. She's still quite young and has demonstrated a willingness to be a sock puppet as needed.
I suspect Janet Mill got in late because no one any better was willing to run in this race because they all wanted to be governor. Troy Jackson would be ahead by high single digits right now.
Quote from the digest: "'election integrity'—a rallying cry for conservatives who baselessly believe that American elections are plagued with fraud."
Why would we assume they believe this? Some crazy people believe this, but a great majority of Republican politicians know this is false and are habitually lying to justify efforts at election-stealing.
It's basically a nice word for election denying. Or as I like to call it, "election integrity is Republican code for not wanting Black people and college students voting."
MN-Sen - Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey endorsed Angie Craig.
This means that Craig has the endorsements of both the Minneapolis and St. Paul (Kaohly Her) mayors, but Peggy Flanagan has the endorsements of the U.S. House members representing Minneapolis (Ilhan Omar) and St. Paul (Betty McCollum). Interesting.
SCOTUS ruled against FDJT on late-arriving mail ballots, on a 5-4 decision. Amy Coney Barrett wrote the opinion, who was joined by Roberts, Sotomayor, Jackson, and Kagan.
The U.S. Supreme Court agreed Monday to hear Republican arguments in defense of Arizona laws that risk disenfranchising eligible voters and make it harder to register.
We've got to finally win the legislature in Arizona. We can't continue to run the state by governor veto which has been what Katie Hobbs has been up against.
Ah, that is good news on late arriving ballots. The argument against on constitutional grounds was absurd. On policy merits some states should tighten the window but doing it this way was insane
It was puzzling when the RNC challenged an absentee mail law from a state with a GOP trifecta. But then I realized they were pulling the same playbook they did with Dobbs, which also started in MS.
But then they ruled for Trump in Rebecca Slaughter's firing. I swear to God, the next Democratic president needs to do some clean up and take advantage of SCOTUS's partisan rulings against them.
The independence of those agencies was via laws passed by Congress and SIGNED BY THE PRESIDENT. That the Congress and POTUS together can't restrict their own authority is the definition of absurd.
Yeah unitary executive theory seems to wholly ignore that the President is part of the lawmaking process by choosing to sign or veto enrolled bills. You could squint reallllllyyyyyy hard and say maybe that overturned vetos that constrain exec powers could get struck down (I don't actually think that--veto overrides are an explicit part of the Constitution lol), but they just pretend that presidential assent is not an official act as part of executing a law passed by Congress.
The serious Republican (e.g. FedSoc and basically no one else) movement is very much envisioning a system of government that constrains rulemaking and the power of the executive to engage in regulatory actions while being unconstrained in the nat sec and immigration spaces. The fix here is just to abolish the filibuster and reform the laws that give unfettered discretion to the President on a lot of this stuff and pass regulatory laws as we want them to be implement. Absent the filibuster, their vision of government is going to collapse very quickly and they'll pivot to something else we can respond to in time.
The declined giving it cert to review. I'd say more that they're letting the lower court judgement stand rather than upholding it themselves--that implies they heard the case itself and decided it on the merits. This was a clean denial via order than even a shadow docket opinion.
"HOLD UP @kai_newkirk has emailed/posted 2 polls today with 2 different results. No links to data.
"Also: His recent complaint to @AZAGMayes re "foreign government interference" cites wrong state statutes (tho it's a federal matter) & appears to be AI generated. #AZ04"
Newkirk defeating Stanton would be a massive upset. AZ-4 is, on paper, not as friendly to progressives as AZ-3 or AZ-7. Newkirk would need a massive margin and massive turnout out of the area around Arizona State University (the closest thing AZ-4 has to a progressive stronghold) and not let Stanton run up a big margin elsewhere in the district. Think of Mamdani winning NY-8 in the NYC mayoral primary last year relying predominantly on a big margin in Bed-Stuy.
Call it schadenfreude, but it’s been a genuine pleasure watching Elise Stefanik’s political career – as well as the brief promise of her diplomatic career – go up in flames.
Nothing would please me more than now seeing a Democrat defeat her heir in this once-bright-Red Congressional district. Fingers crossed!
she'll probably get aconsolation prize post-midterms and try to leverage that into something in a future GOP admin. She's still quite young and has demonstrated a willingness to be a sock puppet as needed.
Platner +2 in Maine according to NYT/Siena poll.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/us/politics/collins-platner-maine-senate-poll.html?unlocked_article_code=1.t1A.qa4T.vcbObLrt45_B&smid=url-share
Nice to both see Siena doing fieldwork again as well as Platner close to 50.
+2 is way too close for comfort against Collins, though.
It was never going to be a blowout.
might've been if everyone hadn't fucked up the recruiting. I think a random state rep would be up by 8-10 right now.
Maybe. Jordan Wood didn’t seem to be catching much traction even though he was first one in
I suspect Janet Mill got in late because no one any better was willing to run in this race because they all wanted to be governor. Troy Jackson would be ahead by high single digits right now.
Appreciate your work, but I can’t spare the change right now.
Just signed up as “paid”, thank you for all you do!
Thank you so kindly, Tyler! This means a ton to me.
Quote from the digest: "'election integrity'—a rallying cry for conservatives who baselessly believe that American elections are plagued with fraud."
Why would we assume they believe this? Some crazy people believe this, but a great majority of Republican politicians know this is false and are habitually lying to justify efforts at election-stealing.
It's basically a nice word for election denying. Or as I like to call it, "election integrity is Republican code for not wanting Black people and college students voting."
It's going to be tough. The red hats are still there hiding in the shadows. But the Dem is a centrist, so he may do well.
MN-Sen - Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey endorsed Angie Craig.
This means that Craig has the endorsements of both the Minneapolis and St. Paul (Kaohly Her) mayors, but Peggy Flanagan has the endorsements of the U.S. House members representing Minneapolis (Ilhan Omar) and St. Paul (Betty McCollum). Interesting.
SCOTUS ruled against FDJT on late-arriving mail ballots, on a 5-4 decision. Amy Coney Barrett wrote the opinion, who was joined by Roberts, Sotomayor, Jackson, and Kagan.
https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/2026-06-29-Opinion.pdf
And on a related note, they agreed to take on a GOP bid to disenfranchise Pennsylvania voters who have missing dates on their mail ballots.
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/supreme-court-signals-it-will-hear-high-stakes-case-on-pennsylvania-mail-ballots/
The U.S. Supreme Court agreed Monday to hear Republican arguments in defense of Arizona laws that risk disenfranchising eligible voters and make it harder to register.
www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...
Yeah I saw that too.
We've got to finally win the legislature in Arizona. We can't continue to run the state by governor veto which has been what Katie Hobbs has been up against.
And winning the legislature stops the GOP from sending vetoed legislation to the ballots as constitutional amendments.
Ah, that is good news on late arriving ballots. The argument against on constitutional grounds was absurd. On policy merits some states should tighten the window but doing it this way was insane
It was puzzling when the RNC challenged an absentee mail law from a state with a GOP trifecta. But then I realized they were pulling the same playbook they did with Dobbs, which also started in MS.
SCOTUS also ruled against Trump on Lisa Cook's firing.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/06/29/supreme-court-wont-let-trump-fire-lisa-cook/88532213007/
Wow. This one is pretty major.
But then they ruled for Trump in Rebecca Slaughter's firing. I swear to God, the next Democratic president needs to do some clean up and take advantage of SCOTUS's partisan rulings against them.
The independence of those agencies was via laws passed by Congress and SIGNED BY THE PRESIDENT. That the Congress and POTUS together can't restrict their own authority is the definition of absurd.
Yeah unitary executive theory seems to wholly ignore that the President is part of the lawmaking process by choosing to sign or veto enrolled bills. You could squint reallllllyyyyyy hard and say maybe that overturned vetos that constrain exec powers could get struck down (I don't actually think that--veto overrides are an explicit part of the Constitution lol), but they just pretend that presidential assent is not an official act as part of executing a law passed by Congress.
The serious Republican (e.g. FedSoc and basically no one else) movement is very much envisioning a system of government that constrains rulemaking and the power of the executive to engage in regulatory actions while being unconstrained in the nat sec and immigration spaces. The fix here is just to abolish the filibuster and reform the laws that give unfettered discretion to the President on a lot of this stuff and pass regulatory laws as we want them to be implement. Absent the filibuster, their vision of government is going to collapse very quickly and they'll pivot to something else we can respond to in time.
The SCOTUS GOP majority probably thought, "if we allow this, then that allows a Democratic president to do the same thing."
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/us/politics/supreme-court-trump-sexual-assault.html
The Supreme Court also upheld the result of a lawsuit that found Trump raped E. Jean Carroll.
The declined giving it cert to review. I'd say more that they're letting the lower court judgement stand rather than upholding it themselves--that implies they heard the case itself and decided it on the merits. This was a clean denial via order than even a shadow docket opinion.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2071408858518442010
AZ-4: Democratic primary (Kai Newkirk internal)
Greg Stanton (incumbent) 34%
Newkirk 33%
Undecided 33%
two decimal places!
That poll is ... interesting ... 12News' Brahm Resnik: https://x.com/brahmresnik/status/2071449425432777117
"HOLD UP @kai_newkirk has emailed/posted 2 polls today with 2 different results. No links to data.
"Also: His recent complaint to @AZAGMayes re "foreign government interference" cites wrong state statutes (tho it's a federal matter) & appears to be AI generated. #AZ04"
Newkirk defeating Stanton would be a massive upset. AZ-4 is, on paper, not as friendly to progressives as AZ-3 or AZ-7. Newkirk would need a massive margin and massive turnout out of the area around Arizona State University (the closest thing AZ-4 has to a progressive stronghold) and not let Stanton run up a big margin elsewhere in the district. Think of Mamdani winning NY-8 in the NYC mayoral primary last year relying predominantly on a big margin in Bed-Stuy.
I think the 33% in the poll I posted is more likely than being a point behind Stanton.