Could you provide some background here on the registration numbers? Is that nationally or just in certain states? Like are the voter registration numbers happening in NC and GA? Could use some more context here.
I'm curious about your condescending attitude on this forum lately and also why you feel the need to speak for the group since you barely contribute anything at all except snarky comments on things you dislike. I did not 'conveniently' leave out anything, I post things as they come in. When more info becomes available I then edit or post that too. I do not honestly care what you specifically care about knowing or not as someone else may find the info interesting.
Where are your facts backing up your anecdotal assertion that "most young people register independent these days"?
The fact that most young people register as independent these days is something that has been discussed numerous times on Daily Kos Elections, the predecessor to this site. I see no reason to repeat what has already been said a dozen times.
And, unlike you, I have a long history of commenting on DKE - almost 13 years now. In that time, I contributed 68 diaries and made roughly 16,300 comments. I mentioned this in the open thread here where we introduced ourselves. Next time, reread that before trying to claim that someone else "barely contributes".
These are misleading at best and intentional disinformation at worst. Why do right leaning accounts constantly post voter registration numbers? 2 reasons.
1) It’s some of the only election data that actually shows their side winning, so they latch onto it and spread it everywhere.
2) They never include the unaffiliated/independent information.
Firstly, here’s what the data said in August 2022 in PA.
Democrats were down 230k voters from 2020 and 19k voters in 2022. Republicans were down 84k voters from 2020 and up 36k in 2022.
Sounds terrible for Democrats, right? That is, until you notice 2 things. 1) Independents are growing in 2022 and down the least of any voter registration type. 2) Republican vote share is higher than Republican voter registration.
Registration is always a lagging indicator, not leading, meaning most of these registrations are changing from people who already voted Republican OR they still vote Democratic, but prefer to not be registered as one. Very few suddenly converted from being a Democrat to a Republican and definitely by not enough to sway any election.
So they don’t actually help the GOP and it’s why, despite their loyal base spreading “PA VOTER REGISTRATION SHOWS GOP GAINS” headlines everywhere, it means very little in terms of actual election victories. It’s only used to make their base voters feel like they’re winning despite their very unpopular political agenda.
Lastly, this is what Michael Pruser had to say after being called out on his spin of the VA predictions. I wonder why he was the only one predicting a Youngkin trifecta in 2023, hmmmm.
Pruser: 2023 Virginia Municipal Election Prediction
Winsome, lose some.
🔴Senate Republicans - 20
🔴House Republicans - 51
I don't see what most of my predictive friends on here see when it comes to Virginia. In fact, of those that I follow and the feed Twitter has sent my way, I've not seen anyone (who has followed the election closely) predict a Youngkin trifecta. What am I missing?
Nothing terribly surprising (favorites did win out), but there is absolutely no question that tonight was an excellent night for the Democratic party.
Even though I hit 3/4 projections and missed VA by a single seat (oh, Juan Pablo), I was 3-4 points right of where each result landed. Suburbs continue to disappear for Republicans and the overarching takeaway is that Pennsylvania seems well out of reach for now.
Other: Maybe I’m missing something here, but how exactly did you get your predictions right in 3/4 races and were only off by 1 seat when you predicted Virginia Republicans to win both the State Senate and State House, which they lost both of?
Pruser: Well, I did say Reeves, McCaffery & Beshear would win.
I also said Republicans would win a trifecta in VA and they did not. Traded a Senate seat for a House seat (bad trade).
Other: Not how math works. Your prediction was 20-20 tied Senate + 51-49 R House. Right now it’s 51-49 D House and 21-19 D Senate, so no, you weren’t off by 1 seat, you were off by 3 and you missed both chambers, which if you count as 1 miss while every other race is 1 correct that’s spin.
August voter registration tallies:
+141,796 Republicans
+61,042 Democrats
Ouch.
https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1834260730394112112?t=FLnv7Kkj3ZBw0RBW1GgbSA&s=19
If anyone cares about Fox, they have moved North Carolina and Georgia Presidential into toss-up status like the rest of the world.
Could you provide some background here on the registration numbers? Is that nationally or just in certain states? Like are the voter registration numbers happening in NC and GA? Could use some more context here.
You conveniently left out the newly registered independents. Most progressive young people register as independents these days.
And we don't need to know every time any person/organization moves a state to a different category in their predictions.
As a follow-up, I'd like to see the NPA numbers; imo those would be overwhelmingly young democratic voters
I'm curious about your condescending attitude on this forum lately and also why you feel the need to speak for the group since you barely contribute anything at all except snarky comments on things you dislike. I did not 'conveniently' leave out anything, I post things as they come in. When more info becomes available I then edit or post that too. I do not honestly care what you specifically care about knowing or not as someone else may find the info interesting.
Where are your facts backing up your anecdotal assertion that "most young people register independent these days"?
The fact that most young people register as independent these days is something that has been discussed numerous times on Daily Kos Elections, the predecessor to this site. I see no reason to repeat what has already been said a dozen times.
And, unlike you, I have a long history of commenting on DKE - almost 13 years now. In that time, I contributed 68 diaries and made roughly 16,300 comments. I mentioned this in the open thread here where we introduced ourselves. Next time, reread that before trying to claim that someone else "barely contributes".
Many of us are interested in changes in the predicted status of races in different states.
When have partisan voter registration numbers ever been meaningful?
If it were reversed we would be cheering.
Update:
Link edited into op above. California and New Hampshire post in a few weeks.
Also, here is the last four month trends:
Republicans: +544,030
Democrats: -13,805
Other: +530,921
Total National Registration as of Aug. 31.
https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1834263705866903763?t=kcMW-g7ru1k1wYwvfows2w&s=19
I appreciate your posting this;but, to be fair it's an incomplete listing
Different states report at different times.
These are misleading at best and intentional disinformation at worst. Why do right leaning accounts constantly post voter registration numbers? 2 reasons.
1) It’s some of the only election data that actually shows their side winning, so they latch onto it and spread it everywhere.
2) They never include the unaffiliated/independent information.
Firstly, here’s what the data said in August 2022 in PA.
https://x.com/WinWithJMC/status/1554144595365208067/photo/1
Democrats were down 230k voters from 2020 and 19k voters in 2022. Republicans were down 84k voters from 2020 and up 36k in 2022.
Sounds terrible for Democrats, right? That is, until you notice 2 things. 1) Independents are growing in 2022 and down the least of any voter registration type. 2) Republican vote share is higher than Republican voter registration.
Registration is always a lagging indicator, not leading, meaning most of these registrations are changing from people who already voted Republican OR they still vote Democratic, but prefer to not be registered as one. Very few suddenly converted from being a Democrat to a Republican and definitely by not enough to sway any election.
So they don’t actually help the GOP and it’s why, despite their loyal base spreading “PA VOTER REGISTRATION SHOWS GOP GAINS” headlines everywhere, it means very little in terms of actual election victories. It’s only used to make their base voters feel like they’re winning despite their very unpopular political agenda.
Lastly, this is what Michael Pruser had to say after being called out on his spin of the VA predictions. I wonder why he was the only one predicting a Youngkin trifecta in 2023, hmmmm.
https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1721940842372284543
Pruser: 2023 Virginia Municipal Election Prediction
Winsome, lose some.
🔴Senate Republicans - 20
🔴House Republicans - 51
I don't see what most of my predictive friends on here see when it comes to Virginia. In fact, of those that I follow and the feed Twitter has sent my way, I've not seen anyone (who has followed the election closely) predict a Youngkin trifecta. What am I missing?
https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1722129448978296888
Pruser: 2023 Election Night is a wrap.
Nothing terribly surprising (favorites did win out), but there is absolutely no question that tonight was an excellent night for the Democratic party.
Even though I hit 3/4 projections and missed VA by a single seat (oh, Juan Pablo), I was 3-4 points right of where each result landed. Suburbs continue to disappear for Republicans and the overarching takeaway is that Pennsylvania seems well out of reach for now.
Other: Maybe I’m missing something here, but how exactly did you get your predictions right in 3/4 races and were only off by 1 seat when you predicted Virginia Republicans to win both the State Senate and State House, which they lost both of?
Pruser: Well, I did say Reeves, McCaffery & Beshear would win.
I also said Republicans would win a trifecta in VA and they did not. Traded a Senate seat for a House seat (bad trade).
Other: Not how math works. Your prediction was 20-20 tied Senate + 51-49 R House. Right now it’s 51-49 D House and 21-19 D Senate, so no, you weren’t off by 1 seat, you were off by 3 and you missed both chambers, which if you count as 1 miss while every other race is 1 correct that’s spin.