These are misleading at best and intentional disinformation at worst. Why do right leaning accounts constantly post voter registration numbers? 2 reasons.
1) It’s some of the only election data that actually shows their side winning, so they latch onto it and spread it everywhere.
2) They never include the unaffiliated/independent informat…
These are misleading at best and intentional disinformation at worst. Why do right leaning accounts constantly post voter registration numbers? 2 reasons.
1) It’s some of the only election data that actually shows their side winning, so they latch onto it and spread it everywhere.
2) They never include the unaffiliated/independent information.
Firstly, here’s what the data said in August 2022 in PA.
Democrats were down 230k voters from 2020 and 19k voters in 2022. Republicans were down 84k voters from 2020 and up 36k in 2022.
Sounds terrible for Democrats, right? That is, until you notice 2 things. 1) Independents are growing in 2022 and down the least of any voter registration type. 2) Republican vote share is higher than Republican voter registration.
Registration is always a lagging indicator, not leading, meaning most of these registrations are changing from people who already voted Republican OR they still vote Democratic, but prefer to not be registered as one. Very few suddenly converted from being a Democrat to a Republican and definitely by not enough to sway any election.
So they don’t actually help the GOP and it’s why, despite their loyal base spreading “PA VOTER REGISTRATION SHOWS GOP GAINS” headlines everywhere, it means very little in terms of actual election victories. It’s only used to make their base voters feel like they’re winning despite their very unpopular political agenda.
Lastly, this is what Michael Pruser had to say after being called out on his spin of the VA predictions. I wonder why he was the only one predicting a Youngkin trifecta in 2023, hmmmm.
Pruser: 2023 Virginia Municipal Election Prediction
Winsome, lose some.
🔴Senate Republicans - 20
🔴House Republicans - 51
I don't see what most of my predictive friends on here see when it comes to Virginia. In fact, of those that I follow and the feed Twitter has sent my way, I've not seen anyone (who has followed the election closely) predict a Youngkin trifecta. What am I missing?
Nothing terribly surprising (favorites did win out), but there is absolutely no question that tonight was an excellent night for the Democratic party.
Even though I hit 3/4 projections and missed VA by a single seat (oh, Juan Pablo), I was 3-4 points right of where each result landed. Suburbs continue to disappear for Republicans and the overarching takeaway is that Pennsylvania seems well out of reach for now.
Other: Maybe I’m missing something here, but how exactly did you get your predictions right in 3/4 races and were only off by 1 seat when you predicted Virginia Republicans to win both the State Senate and State House, which they lost both of?
Pruser: Well, I did say Reeves, McCaffery & Beshear would win.
I also said Republicans would win a trifecta in VA and they did not. Traded a Senate seat for a House seat (bad trade).
Other: Not how math works. Your prediction was 20-20 tied Senate + 51-49 R House. Right now it’s 51-49 D House and 21-19 D Senate, so no, you weren’t off by 1 seat, you were off by 3 and you missed both chambers, which if you count as 1 miss while every other race is 1 correct that’s spin.
These are misleading at best and intentional disinformation at worst. Why do right leaning accounts constantly post voter registration numbers? 2 reasons.
1) It’s some of the only election data that actually shows their side winning, so they latch onto it and spread it everywhere.
2) They never include the unaffiliated/independent information.
Firstly, here’s what the data said in August 2022 in PA.
https://x.com/WinWithJMC/status/1554144595365208067/photo/1
Democrats were down 230k voters from 2020 and 19k voters in 2022. Republicans were down 84k voters from 2020 and up 36k in 2022.
Sounds terrible for Democrats, right? That is, until you notice 2 things. 1) Independents are growing in 2022 and down the least of any voter registration type. 2) Republican vote share is higher than Republican voter registration.
Registration is always a lagging indicator, not leading, meaning most of these registrations are changing from people who already voted Republican OR they still vote Democratic, but prefer to not be registered as one. Very few suddenly converted from being a Democrat to a Republican and definitely by not enough to sway any election.
So they don’t actually help the GOP and it’s why, despite their loyal base spreading “PA VOTER REGISTRATION SHOWS GOP GAINS” headlines everywhere, it means very little in terms of actual election victories. It’s only used to make their base voters feel like they’re winning despite their very unpopular political agenda.
Lastly, this is what Michael Pruser had to say after being called out on his spin of the VA predictions. I wonder why he was the only one predicting a Youngkin trifecta in 2023, hmmmm.
https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1721940842372284543
Pruser: 2023 Virginia Municipal Election Prediction
Winsome, lose some.
🔴Senate Republicans - 20
🔴House Republicans - 51
I don't see what most of my predictive friends on here see when it comes to Virginia. In fact, of those that I follow and the feed Twitter has sent my way, I've not seen anyone (who has followed the election closely) predict a Youngkin trifecta. What am I missing?
https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1722129448978296888
Pruser: 2023 Election Night is a wrap.
Nothing terribly surprising (favorites did win out), but there is absolutely no question that tonight was an excellent night for the Democratic party.
Even though I hit 3/4 projections and missed VA by a single seat (oh, Juan Pablo), I was 3-4 points right of where each result landed. Suburbs continue to disappear for Republicans and the overarching takeaway is that Pennsylvania seems well out of reach for now.
Other: Maybe I’m missing something here, but how exactly did you get your predictions right in 3/4 races and were only off by 1 seat when you predicted Virginia Republicans to win both the State Senate and State House, which they lost both of?
Pruser: Well, I did say Reeves, McCaffery & Beshear would win.
I also said Republicans would win a trifecta in VA and they did not. Traded a Senate seat for a House seat (bad trade).
Other: Not how math works. Your prediction was 20-20 tied Senate + 51-49 R House. Right now it’s 51-49 D House and 21-19 D Senate, so no, you weren’t off by 1 seat, you were off by 3 and you missed both chambers, which if you count as 1 miss while every other race is 1 correct that’s spin.