Agree to disagree; imo those outcomes are way beyond likely as to the point of statistically impossible(I'm a poker player and I would bet my mortgage that if Harris wins Pennsylvania, she wins the election)
From a pure math standpoint: If Harris wins PA, Trump would need to win four of the five remaining swing states not named Nevada or GA+NC+MI+NV. The only three-state combination involving PA & those five remaining swing states not named Nevada that DOESN'T get Harris to 270 is PA+AZ+WI (266 EVs). All four-state combinations that include PA are winners for Harris.
Tied EC is certainly not 0%. You can construct a couple different plausible scenarios.
Trump 2020 + GA, NV, AZ, NE-2
https://www.270towin.com/maps/07NVn
Trump 2020 + PA, MI (I also swapped NC and GA, but that makes no difference)
https://www.270towin.com/maps/JepZz
Probably others. That was just playing around for a minute or two with the map.
I am curious why you think these are exceedingly unlikely?
Agree to disagree; imo those outcomes are way beyond likely as to the point of statistically impossible(I'm a poker player and I would bet my mortgage that if Harris wins Pennsylvania, she wins the election)
From a pure math standpoint: If Harris wins PA, Trump would need to win four of the five remaining swing states not named Nevada or GA+NC+MI+NV. The only three-state combination involving PA & those five remaining swing states not named Nevada that DOESN'T get Harris to 270 is PA+AZ+WI (266 EVs). All four-state combinations that include PA are winners for Harris.
You have expertly made my point; thank you
Yeah.
But ig MI and NV would be harder than other states for Trump. So the scenarios of him winning NV before rust belt, or MI before GA, is less likely.
However, this tie is quite possible:
Trump 2020 + PA + GA, Harris winning all four votes from ME.
The key state being Pennsylvania