You could easily make the opposite argument - Trump has been around for 3 goes now - if people were going to support him they already would. The undecided voter could just be a Trump hater who is skeptical of Democrats/liberals/women/non-white people/Kamala Harris in particular who they still likely dont know much about.
There's no proof either way (the consistently shifting partisan divide in early voting has made judging anything off of it completely useless and polls arent proof).
To put it another way - Trump in two attempts hasnst topped 47% nationally, and theres no reason to expect him to this time.
One should expect this result - Trump will get between 47 and 50 percent in the swing states (PA, WI, MI, NV, AZ, NC, GA) and Harris will get between 48.5 and 50.5% in those same states. The actual outcome - who knows - each candidate could win all of those states or none or anything in between in almost any combination. Harris is more likely to win, but its by far not a given.
Moreover, consider the fact that Trump underperformed polls, often significantly, in just about every Republican primary this year. This alone indicates massive Republican discontent with their MAGA candidate.
It also indicates that something is seriously wrong with polling. Pollsters have adjusted for their perceived misses in 2016 and 2020 – but have, IMHO, failed to adjust to the post-Dobbs reality where it is Democrats who have overperformed in the Midterms Elections and almost every special election since Dobbs.
Case in point: Women account for approx. 55% of the Early Vote!
You could easily make the opposite argument - Trump has been around for 3 goes now - if people were going to support him they already would. The undecided voter could just be a Trump hater who is skeptical of Democrats/liberals/women/non-white people/Kamala Harris in particular who they still likely dont know much about.
There's no proof either way (the consistently shifting partisan divide in early voting has made judging anything off of it completely useless and polls arent proof).
To put it another way - Trump in two attempts hasnst topped 47% nationally, and theres no reason to expect him to this time.
One should expect this result - Trump will get between 47 and 50 percent in the swing states (PA, WI, MI, NV, AZ, NC, GA) and Harris will get between 48.5 and 50.5% in those same states. The actual outcome - who knows - each candidate could win all of those states or none or anything in between in almost any combination. Harris is more likely to win, but its by far not a given.
Moreover, consider the fact that Trump underperformed polls, often significantly, in just about every Republican primary this year. This alone indicates massive Republican discontent with their MAGA candidate.
It also indicates that something is seriously wrong with polling. Pollsters have adjusted for their perceived misses in 2016 and 2020 – but have, IMHO, failed to adjust to the post-Dobbs reality where it is Democrats who have overperformed in the Midterms Elections and almost every special election since Dobbs.
Case in point: Women account for approx. 55% of the Early Vote!