"With 25 days to go before EDay the strategic advantage of progressive coalition embracing early vote continues to play out in 2024. As of yesterday's [note: Wednesday’s] data update, nearly 34% of a projected high turnout environment is in absentee ballot requests (over 2m).
"Reminder, MI is a non-party registration state; any analysis is based upon modeling. Likely Democratic supporters outnumber likely Republicans by over 462k ballot requests; almost 40% of this advantage comes from voters with infrequent vote histories!
"Frequent likely Democratic voters outnumber likely Frequent Republicans by ~285k requests... 45% of all requests are from likely Democratic voters; only 22% from likely Republicans.
"55% of registered, likely Frequent Democratic voters have requested a ballot vs. just 30% for likely Frequent Republicans. Nearly 18% of registered, likely Democrats with sporadic or infrequent vote histories have requested v. just 8% of likely Republicans
"There are another ~650k voters who have requested an absentee ballot we know less about. They account for ~32% of requests; these types of voters broke heavily for Biden & Whitmer in early vote in 2020 & 2022. 45% of these voters w/ frequent vote histories have requested a ballot.
"Doing napkin math from requests, Dems could enter Election Day with more than 1.2-–1.4m votes banked. What this currently means is the progressive/democratic coalition still has a ton of work to do; yet, the lift for Republicans feels much larger to mobilize a set of infrequent voters.
"We'll also know more as additional returns come in and early, in-person voting comes online across the state. Just under 400k voters had cast a ballot based upon yesterday's data update."
[Note: Based on numbers per 9 October. "Yesterday" is referring to wednesday.]
McDonald’s Early Vote for the state shows that women account for a massive 55.7% of those who have voted in Michigan so far. As of this morning, a total of 543,650 votes have been cast in the state – second only to Virginia in the Early Vote.
Also encouraging is Tom Bonier’s "Modeled Party" breakdown, which indicates that Democrats have returned 8% of their Mail Ballots, Republicans only 4.2%.
EARLY VOTE MICHIGAN – analysis by Patrick Schuh
"With 25 days to go before EDay the strategic advantage of progressive coalition embracing early vote continues to play out in 2024. As of yesterday's [note: Wednesday’s] data update, nearly 34% of a projected high turnout environment is in absentee ballot requests (over 2m).
"Reminder, MI is a non-party registration state; any analysis is based upon modeling. Likely Democratic supporters outnumber likely Republicans by over 462k ballot requests; almost 40% of this advantage comes from voters with infrequent vote histories!
"Frequent likely Democratic voters outnumber likely Frequent Republicans by ~285k requests... 45% of all requests are from likely Democratic voters; only 22% from likely Republicans.
"55% of registered, likely Frequent Democratic voters have requested a ballot vs. just 30% for likely Frequent Republicans. Nearly 18% of registered, likely Democrats with sporadic or infrequent vote histories have requested v. just 8% of likely Republicans
"There are another ~650k voters who have requested an absentee ballot we know less about. They account for ~32% of requests; these types of voters broke heavily for Biden & Whitmer in early vote in 2020 & 2022. 45% of these voters w/ frequent vote histories have requested a ballot.
"Doing napkin math from requests, Dems could enter Election Day with more than 1.2-–1.4m votes banked. What this currently means is the progressive/democratic coalition still has a ton of work to do; yet, the lift for Republicans feels much larger to mobilize a set of infrequent voters.
"We'll also know more as additional returns come in and early, in-person voting comes online across the state. Just under 400k voters had cast a ballot based upon yesterday's data update."
[Note: Based on numbers per 9 October. "Yesterday" is referring to wednesday.]
https://nitter.poast.org/PatrickSchuh
https://nitter.poast.org/PatrickSchuh/status/1844407841152696469#m
(Nitter is a way of accessing Tweets on X / Xitter.)
McDonald’s Early Vote for the state shows that women account for a massive 55.7% of those who have voted in Michigan so far. As of this morning, a total of 543,650 votes have been cast in the state – second only to Virginia in the Early Vote.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-michigan/
Also encouraging is Tom Bonier’s "Modeled Party" breakdown, which indicates that Democrats have returned 8% of their Mail Ballots, Republicans only 4.2%.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?calc_type=turnoutPercent&count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=MI&view_type=state
Is it mean to wish for a beautiful snowstorm in MI, especially the (rural) UP, on Nov 4-5?
Nope, imo it's a great idea