Which is a hell of a lot closer than I think anyone on here would have predicted at the beginning of the cycle. So why is it (potentially) that close? Is it as simple as he’s running as an Independent instead of a Dem? I’m sure that factors in but there’s got to be something else as well. Fischer is pretty non-controversial as an incumbent isn’t she?
Just trying to figure out if there is anything to be learned here for future races in NE or KS.
I think that's definitely part of it. Osborn has a REALLY compelling story and that's certainly part of it. Deb Fischer is pretty uncontroversial and seems like a decent fit for the state, but she's also super milquetoast and she's been in elected office since 1990 and so it makes for a good contrast for Osborn.
I definitely see some similarities between this and the 2016 MO-SEN race. Its not a perfect comparison because Kander ran as a Democrat but also ran as a much more conventional candidate. But there's that macro comparison generationally but also in terms of their life experiences.
An big unknown factor is turnout in Nebraska’s "Blue Dot" (NE-02), given the considerable investment here, e.g. from the Hopium community. That leads me to believe we’ll see elevated Democratic turnout in NE-02, which may well lift Osborn considerably!
Two more Nebraska Senate internal polls. Fischer says she’s up by 6. Osborne says he’s up by 3.
The Osborn one has Trump up 20, he won it in 2020 by 19, so they're definitely not getting an overly Harris-friendly sample.
It is 46-43 which fits where I think this race will probably end up which is Fischer and 52-53 and Osborn at 47-48.
Which is a hell of a lot closer than I think anyone on here would have predicted at the beginning of the cycle. So why is it (potentially) that close? Is it as simple as he’s running as an Independent instead of a Dem? I’m sure that factors in but there’s got to be something else as well. Fischer is pretty non-controversial as an incumbent isn’t she?
Just trying to figure out if there is anything to be learned here for future races in NE or KS.
I think that's definitely part of it. Osborn has a REALLY compelling story and that's certainly part of it. Deb Fischer is pretty uncontroversial and seems like a decent fit for the state, but she's also super milquetoast and she's been in elected office since 1990 and so it makes for a good contrast for Osborn.
I definitely see some similarities between this and the 2016 MO-SEN race. Its not a perfect comparison because Kander ran as a Democrat but also ran as a much more conventional candidate. But there's that macro comparison generationally but also in terms of their life experiences.
Let's remember that kander smoked Blunt(keeping him under 50%); if that happens here, Osborn wins
An big unknown factor is turnout in Nebraska’s "Blue Dot" (NE-02), given the considerable investment here, e.g. from the Hopium community. That leads me to believe we’ll see elevated Democratic turnout in NE-02, which may well lift Osborn considerably!
And Trump pulled out of NE-2
For Fischer, that's kinda weak actually