Elections Canada has validated the results in Nunavut and confirmed NDP incumbent Lori Idlout has prevailed over Liberal challenger Kilikvak Kabloona by 41 votes.
On Friday, a judicial recount in the southern Ontario riding of Milton East-Halton Hills South confirmed that Liberal Kristina Tesser Derksen won the seat by a margin of 21 votes over Conservative Parm Gill.
The Liberals need to hold onto the seat they have in the Newfoundland and Labrador riding of Terra Nova-The Peninsulas. A judicial recount there is still in progress. Before the recount, Liberal Anthony Germain led Conservative Jonathan Rowe by 12 votes.
A recount in the Ontario riding Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore is scheduled to begin on May 20. The current result shows Conservative Kathy Borrelli beating incumbent Liberal Irek Kusmierczyk by 77 votes.
The Bloc Québécois is calling on the Superior Court of Quebec to order a byelection in the riding of Terrebonne, where the party lost by one vote, as Elections Canada revealed issues with five more mail-in ballots.
DEPARTURE FROM CBS – McMAHON REFUSES TO BEND THE KNEE
CBS News faced another shock wave on Monday after its president, Wendy McMahon, abruptly said that she would exit her post, the latest development in an ongoing showdown between the news division and President Trump.
McMahon: “It’s become clear the company and I do not agree on the path forward.”
Yes, more specifically Shari Redstone, who needs a key federal approval from the Trump Regime... And who asked CBS to "postpone" sensitive (controversial?) reporting on Trump.
Because that will end up well for a business. You know, I predicted this. Do you remember my description of the military roadblock in Bali in 1976 that extorted money every month from moped taxi drivers?
The New York Times has an op ed about the law firms who kowtowed to Trump and how is going for them. (Not well.) The strategy seems to be start with demands institutions think they can live with them gradually add more and more demands post capitulation. (Think Vader "I have altered the deal, pray I do not alter it further") The only mistake they made with Harvard was sending the second round of demands too early.
Looks like every high-profile Dem in Maine intends to run for Governor, with no one willing to run against Collins. Bellows and King III are already in. Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson are setting themselves up to run. A Gov campaign by Hannah makes a Senate campaign by her mother Chellie far less likely. And rounding it out, Jared Golden has been looking at the Gov race and is likely not going to run against Collins (his former boss) either. So that's *checks notes* everyone running for Governor and *checks notes again* no one running against Collins.
Obviously the open Gov seat in a light blue state is a much easier reach than running against Collins, but they can't all win. At a certain point, the ones polling 3rd or 4th in the Gov race might start liking their odds better as the most high-profile Dem in the race against Collins. Hopefully that happens sooner than later. Collins won her last race with only 51% and is going to be up against the most unfavorable political climate of her career.
Yeah, I like his background, but I think he's punching up a bit too far. Also, his history with Porter (a well-known progressive from a faraway state) may not be a plus for certain voters in Maine.
I’m sure there will be another another Democratic Senate candidate besides Wood who announces a run at some point. Wood only announced a few weeks ago so he’s early in his Senate campaign.
I take comfort in knowing that Wood is not going to face the same face as Sara Gideon in light of the fact that he wants to have a PAC-free campaign and that the DSCC isn’t going to endorse his campaign early on. That alone isn’t enough for him to unseat Susan Collins but it’s a start.
It’s great that he wants to end Citizens United. Until that happens, I mostly roll my eyes at candidates who only will fundraise through the “pass the hat and put in 10 or 20” method and denounce other means as corrupt.
And abstract, idealistic arguments about campaign finance are not election winners, at least when a campaign makes them its main issue.
Chellie Pingree and Shenna Bellows already got creamed by Collins in 2002 and 2014. In between, Tom Allen couldn't even carry his own congressional district in 2008 while Obama was crushing it. Her initial opponent for the open seat was also a sitting Congressman and her last opponent was the Speaker of the State House, it's not like she has had a lack of strength from her opponents. All the while the state has been blue and she's won three times in presidential years.
I'm not suggesting that a Pingree or Bellows rematch would necessarily turn out the same way, just that I get why prominent Maine Democrats might be hesitant to take on Collins.
That's the sort of logic that leads to things like the Charge of the Light Brigade 😂
Which is why Mills is the obvious candidate to me, she has nothing to lose. And she's basically a reverse Rick Scott, a termed-out governor taking on an entrenched out party incumbent Senator is about the strongest profile you can ask for.
If she was 10-20 years younger she would be perfect. I think we're kidding ourselves if we think her age won't be a major issue. R's will say she will be 85 at the end of the term.
Should probably mention that Gov. Janet Mills hasn't officially decided on the Senate race yet and has thoroughly demonstrated that she is still ready to fight. She's 77, but even if she only served one term, that's enough to rid us of Collins, which will make the seat far more likely result to remain blue in subsequent elections. The GOP is no longer producing moderates or even pretenders like Collins who can get elected in places like Maine.
I was talking to a friend about this last night, and he convinced me that Janet Mills would be the best person because she could probably serve just one or two terms and she’s definitely the person who can be Collins.
Especially after her rather weak showing in 2020. If 2020 had the political environment of 2018 then Collins would have lost. We don't want to count our chickens yet but a 2018-esque environment for 2026 is not an unreasonable prediction.
And if anything I'd argue Collins has gotten weaker since 2020, not stronger.
I mean, we can never be 100% certain but I'm reasonably confident.
Easy consistent point to compare is the house popular vote in each cycle. There's about a six point shift from 2018 to 2020, with 2018 being the better cycle. I'll admit this isn't the perfect comparison, as house elections are not 1:1 between cycles.
In the 2020 senate election in Maine, there's a nine point gap separating Gideon from Collins, but that doesn't take into account the RCV in Maine. Since Collins got over 50% on the first round the second and third choices of the two independent candidates was not tabulated. Those two candidates combine for about 6.5 points. The more popular one (five points) was very left leaning.
Now, Gideon wouldn't have gotten all of their votes, and some wouldn't have ranked an alternate at all. But I feel confident that she would have netted ~3 points in the top two in the end if the tabulations would have gone through. Probably losing overall by something like 52-48 or 53-47 or so. Hovering somewhere around a five point loss.
I'd also argue further that the comparison of house popular vote understates the potential shift we would see here. The types of people that normally vote for Collins because she's "moderate" were the kind we were doing atypically better with in 2018, relative to other cycles.
I'm still not convinced ANY Dem can win there (yet), but if there is ever a time and place to locate and nominate "Democratic Jesus" it is TX-SEN (2026).
For the record, Paxton himself is to the left of the average GOP Primary voter in most states-basically Adolf Hitler-Genocidal intentions and all is the average GOP primary voter these days.
Which millions of people do they demand to be murdered, rather than deported abroad, do they want their tax dollars to pay for train lines for cattle cars, and where do they want the gas chambers built? Nazis are part of Trump's coalition, but what you're saying may still be a slight exaggeration.
Australia: Teal Independent Nicolette Boele has pulled into the lead in the Bradfield electoral division and now is ahead by 39 votes with 93.6% counted. Should the result hold, it would mean a net zero for the Teal Independents, as they narrowly lost the division of Goldstein.
The Teal (i.e. Blue-Green) Independents first emerged in the 2022 election, when 7 Tory seats fell to otherwise conservative independents who supported action on climate change. The Teal Independents are also socially moderate (i.e. on issues like abortion / gay rights). Their brand has definitely held, at least through another election cycle.
Another Tory seat (Calare) was also lost to an Independent (Andrew Gee). But from what I can tell, Gee is not a Teal, but resigned his own seat to run as an Independent and breaks from his former party, The Nationals, over an eclectic set of issues.
Just looking at Wikipedia, Gee broke with the nativist Nationals over the Indigenous Voices referendum that got over 70% No vote in his district in 2023, yet he still won reelection. That's impressive.
I saw that too, though I kind of get the impression that he simply didn't like being told what to do, rather than being a strident supporter of indigenous rights.
I largely agree with you here but I'm not sure it's a case not being prepared. Except in the sense of intentionally not being prepared. That Durbin could retire has been obvious for months. Arguably years. I cannot imagine that she was caught off guard by this and wanted to run but was surprised by the way the primary started.
I think she didn't want to risk giving up her house seat but wasn't 100% committed to staying out until it was obviously too late to change her mind.
Canadian election. Recount updates:
Elections Canada has validated the results in Nunavut and confirmed NDP incumbent Lori Idlout has prevailed over Liberal challenger Kilikvak Kabloona by 41 votes.
On Friday, a judicial recount in the southern Ontario riding of Milton East-Halton Hills South confirmed that Liberal Kristina Tesser Derksen won the seat by a margin of 21 votes over Conservative Parm Gill.
The Liberals need to hold onto the seat they have in the Newfoundland and Labrador riding of Terra Nova-The Peninsulas. A judicial recount there is still in progress. Before the recount, Liberal Anthony Germain led Conservative Jonathan Rowe by 12 votes.
A recount in the Ontario riding Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore is scheduled to begin on May 20. The current result shows Conservative Kathy Borrelli beating incumbent Liberal Irek Kusmierczyk by 77 votes.
The Bloc Québécois is calling on the Superior Court of Quebec to order a byelection in the riding of Terrebonne, where the party lost by one vote, as Elections Canada revealed issues with five more mail-in ballots.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nunavut-election-results-ndp-win-validated-1.7538038
This is all just so mathematically fascinating. Keep the updates coming!
DEPARTURE FROM CBS – McMAHON REFUSES TO BEND THE KNEE
CBS News faced another shock wave on Monday after its president, Wendy McMahon, abruptly said that she would exit her post, the latest development in an ongoing showdown between the news division and President Trump.
McMahon: “It’s become clear the company and I do not agree on the path forward.”
https://politicalwire.com/2025/05/19/cbs-news-chief-departs-amid-tensions-with-trump/
The showdown is actually between the news division and Redstone/Paramount.
Yes, more specifically Shari Redstone, who needs a key federal approval from the Trump Regime... And who asked CBS to "postpone" sensitive (controversial?) reporting on Trump.
And who wants to pay extortion money to Trump.
Because that will end up well for a business. You know, I predicted this. Do you remember my description of the military roadblock in Bali in 1976 that extorted money every month from moped taxi drivers?
The New York Times has an op ed about the law firms who kowtowed to Trump and how is going for them. (Not well.) The strategy seems to be start with demands institutions think they can live with them gradually add more and more demands post capitulation. (Think Vader "I have altered the deal, pray I do not alter it further") The only mistake they made with Harvard was sending the second round of demands too early.
Needs what federal approval? Relicensing? That surely doesn't require bribery.
His "lawsuit."
Looks like every high-profile Dem in Maine intends to run for Governor, with no one willing to run against Collins. Bellows and King III are already in. Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson are setting themselves up to run. A Gov campaign by Hannah makes a Senate campaign by her mother Chellie far less likely. And rounding it out, Jared Golden has been looking at the Gov race and is likely not going to run against Collins (his former boss) either. So that's *checks notes* everyone running for Governor and *checks notes again* no one running against Collins.
Obviously the open Gov seat in a light blue state is a much easier reach than running against Collins, but they can't all win. At a certain point, the ones polling 3rd or 4th in the Gov race might start liking their odds better as the most high-profile Dem in the race against Collins. Hopefully that happens sooner than later. Collins won her last race with only 51% and is going to be up against the most unfavorable political climate of her career.
There is one Democratic Senate candidate currently in the race, Jordan Wood, who is VP of End Citizens United.
https://electjordan.com/
https://spectrumlocalnews.com/me/maine/politics/2025/04/24/democrat-announces-bid-to-unseat-maine-sen--susan-collins
Yeah, I like his background, but I think he's punching up a bit too far. Also, his history with Porter (a well-known progressive from a faraway state) may not be a plus for certain voters in Maine.
I’m sure there will be another another Democratic Senate candidate besides Wood who announces a run at some point. Wood only announced a few weeks ago so he’s early in his Senate campaign.
I take comfort in knowing that Wood is not going to face the same face as Sara Gideon in light of the fact that he wants to have a PAC-free campaign and that the DSCC isn’t going to endorse his campaign early on. That alone isn’t enough for him to unseat Susan Collins but it’s a start.
Those things sound like -disadvantages-. Funding is good and needed!
It’s great that he wants to end Citizens United. Until that happens, I mostly roll my eyes at candidates who only will fundraise through the “pass the hat and put in 10 or 20” method and denounce other means as corrupt.
And abstract, idealistic arguments about campaign finance are not election winners, at least when a campaign makes them its main issue.
Chellie Pingree and Shenna Bellows already got creamed by Collins in 2002 and 2014. In between, Tom Allen couldn't even carry his own congressional district in 2008 while Obama was crushing it. Her initial opponent for the open seat was also a sitting Congressman and her last opponent was the Speaker of the State House, it's not like she has had a lack of strength from her opponents. All the while the state has been blue and she's won three times in presidential years.
I'm not suggesting that a Pingree or Bellows rematch would necessarily turn out the same way, just that I get why prominent Maine Democrats might be hesitant to take on Collins.
No guts, no glory. One of them is going to have an L on their run for governor and they'll deserve it.
That's the sort of logic that leads to things like the Charge of the Light Brigade 😂
Which is why Mills is the obvious candidate to me, she has nothing to lose. And she's basically a reverse Rick Scott, a termed-out governor taking on an entrenched out party incumbent Senator is about the strongest profile you can ask for.
If she was 10-20 years younger she would be perfect. I think we're kidding ourselves if we think her age won't be a major issue. R's will say she will be 85 at the end of the term.
It's also the sort of logic that led to D-Day.
It's a good thing that it isn't a presidential year and Trump's non college educated MAGA voters won't turn out.
It’s ridiculous if none of them take her on.
Should probably mention that Gov. Janet Mills hasn't officially decided on the Senate race yet and has thoroughly demonstrated that she is still ready to fight. She's 77, but even if she only served one term, that's enough to rid us of Collins, which will make the seat far more likely result to remain blue in subsequent elections. The GOP is no longer producing moderates or even pretenders like Collins who can get elected in places like Maine.
My thinking exactly. Janet Mills is my top choice, and I really hope she jumps into the race.
I was talking to a friend about this last night, and he convinced me that Janet Mills would be the best person because she could probably serve just one or two terms and she’s definitely the person who can be Collins.
I wrote an article about this! https://sammatey.substack.com/p/governor-janet-mills-of-maine-should
This is pathetic. There's no reason to believe Susan Collins will be 20 points stronger than her party in a defensive midterm.
Especially after her rather weak showing in 2020. If 2020 had the political environment of 2018 then Collins would have lost. We don't want to count our chickens yet but a 2018-esque environment for 2026 is not an unreasonable prediction.
And if anything I'd argue Collins has gotten weaker since 2020, not stronger.
Are you sure the 2018 environment would have resulted in Collins losing?
I mean, we can never be 100% certain but I'm reasonably confident.
Easy consistent point to compare is the house popular vote in each cycle. There's about a six point shift from 2018 to 2020, with 2018 being the better cycle. I'll admit this isn't the perfect comparison, as house elections are not 1:1 between cycles.
In the 2020 senate election in Maine, there's a nine point gap separating Gideon from Collins, but that doesn't take into account the RCV in Maine. Since Collins got over 50% on the first round the second and third choices of the two independent candidates was not tabulated. Those two candidates combine for about 6.5 points. The more popular one (five points) was very left leaning.
Now, Gideon wouldn't have gotten all of their votes, and some wouldn't have ranked an alternate at all. But I feel confident that she would have netted ~3 points in the top two in the end if the tabulations would have gone through. Probably losing overall by something like 52-48 or 53-47 or so. Hovering somewhere around a five point loss.
I'd also argue further that the comparison of house popular vote understates the potential shift we would see here. The types of people that normally vote for Collins because she's "moderate" were the kind we were doing atypically better with in 2018, relative to other cycles.
TX-Sen, Cornyn and Paxton are actually fighting each other on X over the results of the Senate Leadership PAC’s poll showing Cornyn trailing Paxton by double digits: https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/texas/news/tensions-grow-new-poll-shows-senator-cornyn-trailing-attorney-general-paxton-republican-primary-u-s-senate/
I'm still not convinced ANY Dem can win there (yet), but if there is ever a time and place to locate and nominate "Democratic Jesus" it is TX-SEN (2026).
if paxton is nominee Allred can win..will he? who knows but he sure as hell can.
Agreed. Except, forget Democratic Jesús – that Guatemalan doesn’t stand a chance.
You have a Democratic Jesus in Texas. His name is James Talarico, he loves Jesus and he's going to run against Abbott if it's a favorable environment.
Usually a bad omen when campaigns and candidates start denying and challenging polls and numbers....
Good! I hope they continue.
For the record, Paxton himself is to the left of the average GOP Primary voter in most states-basically Adolf Hitler-Genocidal intentions and all is the average GOP primary voter these days.
Which millions of people do they demand to be murdered, rather than deported abroad, do they want their tax dollars to pay for train lines for cattle cars, and where do they want the gas chambers built? Nazis are part of Trump's coalition, but what you're saying may still be a slight exaggeration.
Australia: Teal Independent Nicolette Boele has pulled into the lead in the Bradfield electoral division and now is ahead by 39 votes with 93.6% counted. Should the result hold, it would mean a net zero for the Teal Independents, as they narrowly lost the division of Goldstein.
The Teal (i.e. Blue-Green) Independents first emerged in the 2022 election, when 7 Tory seats fell to otherwise conservative independents who supported action on climate change. The Teal Independents are also socially moderate (i.e. on issues like abortion / gay rights). Their brand has definitely held, at least through another election cycle.
Another Tory seat (Calare) was also lost to an Independent (Andrew Gee). But from what I can tell, Gee is not a Teal, but resigned his own seat to run as an Independent and breaks from his former party, The Nationals, over an eclectic set of issues.
Just looking at Wikipedia, Gee broke with the nativist Nationals over the Indigenous Voices referendum that got over 70% No vote in his district in 2023, yet he still won reelection. That's impressive.
I saw that too, though I kind of get the impression that he simply didn't like being told what to do, rather than being a strident supporter of indigenous rights.
IL-Sen: Underwood NOT running for Senate. I wonder what changed her mind and who the favorite is now?
https://x.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1924571564470583342
I largely agree with you here but I'm not sure it's a case not being prepared. Except in the sense of intentionally not being prepared. That Durbin could retire has been obvious for months. Arguably years. I cannot imagine that she was caught off guard by this and wanted to run but was surprised by the way the primary started.
I think she didn't want to risk giving up her house seat but wasn't 100% committed to staying out until it was obviously too late to change her mind.
I wonder if she is being groomed for leadership in the House.
Team Raj it is
Surprised me.
Juliana Stratton, no-brainer now!!
JB Pritkzer was reported to be very against her candidacy and has thrown his entire political machine behind Stratton as reported by the press.