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Paleo's avatar

Canadian election. Recount updates:

Elections Canada has validated the results in Nunavut and confirmed NDP incumbent Lori Idlout has prevailed over Liberal challenger Kilikvak Kabloona by 41 votes.

On Friday, a judicial recount in the southern Ontario riding of Milton East-Halton Hills South confirmed that Liberal Kristina Tesser Derksen won the seat by a margin of 21 votes over Conservative Parm Gill.

The Liberals need to hold onto the seat they have in the Newfoundland and Labrador riding of Terra Nova-The Peninsulas. A judicial recount there is still in progress. Before the recount, Liberal Anthony Germain led Conservative Jonathan Rowe by 12 votes.

A recount in the Ontario riding Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore is scheduled to begin on May 20. The current result shows Conservative Kathy Borrelli beating incumbent Liberal Irek Kusmierczyk by 77 votes.

The Bloc Québécois is calling on the Superior Court of Quebec to order a byelection in the riding of Terrebonne, where the party lost by one vote, as Elections Canada revealed issues with five more mail-in ballots.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nunavut-election-results-ndp-win-validated-1.7538038

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Wolfpack Dem's avatar

This is all just so mathematically fascinating. Keep the updates coming!

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ArcticStones's avatar

DEPARTURE FROM CBS – McMAHON REFUSES TO BEND THE KNEE

CBS News faced another shock wave on Monday after its president, Wendy McMahon, abruptly said that she would exit her post, the latest development in an ongoing showdown between the news division and President Trump.

McMahon: “It’s become clear the company and I do not agree on the path forward.”

https://politicalwire.com/2025/05/19/cbs-news-chief-departs-amid-tensions-with-trump/

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Paleo's avatar

The showdown is actually between the news division and Redstone/Paramount.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Yes, more specifically Shari Redstone, who needs a key federal approval from the Trump Regime... And who asked CBS to "postpone" sensitive (controversial?) reporting on Trump.

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Paleo's avatar

And who wants to pay extortion money to Trump.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Because that will end up well for a business. You know, I predicted this. Do you remember my description of the military roadblock in Bali in 1976 that extorted money every month from moped taxi drivers?

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Paleo's avatar

No, but I remember seeing Network that year.

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Marcus Graly's avatar

The New York Times has an op ed about the law firms who kowtowed to Trump and how is going for them. (Not well.) The strategy seems to be start with demands institutions think they can live with them gradually add more and more demands post capitulation. (Think Vader "I have altered the deal, pray I do not alter it further") The only mistake they made with Harvard was sending the second round of demands too early.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Harvard is also prestigious enough that being seen as too blatantly capitulating would have real long-term costs to them. They don't want to be seen as the school that ambitious conservatives go to but ambitious progressives avoid.

I think an equal sized mistake was picking on Harvard before the precedent have been firmly set for a year with all the other schools that have less need to protect their reputation.

Our biggest silver lining in all of this is that these people are often starkly incompetent.

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Marcus Graly's avatar

You would think the same thing could be said of Capitulitious Columbia, but they folded faster than an origami crane. I suspect this is because they had interim leadership and pressure from their donor base over the response to the protests. So the request to do more to "fight antisemitism" seemed reasonable and in line with their own objectives. However, they got absolutely nothing in exchange for their capitulation. Funding is still suspended and there's a new more extreme list of demands.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

I think there's a huge difference between Columbia's prestige and Harvard's prestige. Harvard is arguably the most prestigious university on the planet. It's certainly the most prestigious in the US. Columbia is also an Ivy League school, also very prestigious, but the gap in tier of prestige is huge. Even before Columbia fucked up.

Harvard's reputation and prestige is far more valuable to them than is the case for any other school in the US. Columbia's capitulation will likely be a footnote by the time Trump is gone. If Harvard capitulated in the exact same way, I think that their reputational change would be around forever.

A big part of it too is going to come down to how well known the schools are. Harvard is a household name. If they do something dumb, that mistake is going to be known to more people.

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slothlax's avatar

I once kidded a Cornell alum that he went to a "lesser Ivy". He took offense and I felt kind of bad, but it's true. After Harvard and Yale, maybe Princeton, the rest are just the Other Ivies to most people.

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

This was all so predictable. If you capitulate you're just showing you'll bend to whatever terms they set . .at any point.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Needs what federal approval? Relicensing? That surely doesn't require bribery.

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Paleo's avatar

His "lawsuit."

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michaelflutist's avatar

So, nothing.

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bpfish's avatar

Looks like every high-profile Dem in Maine intends to run for Governor, with no one willing to run against Collins. Bellows and King III are already in. Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson are setting themselves up to run. A Gov campaign by Hannah makes a Senate campaign by her mother Chellie far less likely. And rounding it out, Jared Golden has been looking at the Gov race and is likely not going to run against Collins (his former boss) either. So that's *checks notes* everyone running for Governor and *checks notes again* no one running against Collins.

Obviously the open Gov seat in a light blue state is a much easier reach than running against Collins, but they can't all win. At a certain point, the ones polling 3rd or 4th in the Gov race might start liking their odds better as the most high-profile Dem in the race against Collins. Hopefully that happens sooner than later. Collins won her last race with only 51% and is going to be up against the most unfavorable political climate of her career.

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Zero Cool's avatar

There is one Democratic Senate candidate currently in the race, Jordan Wood, who is VP of End Citizens United.

https://electjordan.com/

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/me/maine/politics/2025/04/24/democrat-announces-bid-to-unseat-maine-sen--susan-collins

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bpfish's avatar

Yeah, I like his background, but I think he's punching up a bit too far. Also, his history with Porter (a well-known progressive from a faraway state) may not be a plus for certain voters in Maine.

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Zero Cool's avatar

I’m sure there will be another another Democratic Senate candidate besides Wood who announces a run at some point. Wood only announced a few weeks ago so he’s early in his Senate campaign.

I take comfort in knowing that Wood is not going to face the same face as Sara Gideon in light of the fact that he wants to have a PAC-free campaign and that the DSCC isn’t going to endorse his campaign early on. That alone isn’t enough for him to unseat Susan Collins but it’s a start.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Those things sound like -disadvantages-. Funding is good and needed!

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bpfish's avatar

Yes, and I don't think anyone gives the tiniest fuck about PACs, national committees, or other campaign resources that may seem "impure," now that we're living in Qatar-a-Lago. The Republic has fallen. Anything that provides an advantage is a good thing.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I agree. All hands on deck!

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Zero Cool's avatar

Sure but do you want the support early on in the Senate campaign for a candidate to backfire?

Remember, we are talking about Maine and Susan Collins, not about the other Senate races.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Yes but does the funding have corrupting influence on the campaign? It depends on where the funding sources are coming from and how influential they are in a state like Maine.

DSCC’s decision to endorse Sara Gideon’s Senate campaign early on in the primary cycle effectively destroyed her chances at unseating Susan Collins back in 2020, even though Collins won re-election by the smallest margin of victory since her first Senate campaign back in 1996.

FYI, I am not against PACs or other committees in principle getting involved in a Senate campaign. However, since we’re talking about Maine, it would be preferable if all Democratic Senate candidates this early in the cycle walk the walk first, then get more PAC support as it gets to a few months before the actual primary.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Please provide clear evidence that the DSCC's decision to endorse that campaign caused her to lose. I don't believe that at all.

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Zero Cool's avatar

CBS News interviewed Nathan Bernard, reporter for the Mainer, on the DSCC’s impact on Sara Gideon’s Senate campaign.

He argues that on June 25th, 2019, Gideon’s campaign was doomed. The DSCC’s involvement nationalized the race and made it harder for Gideon to run a real credible campaign that resonated with Mainers. This meant that her campaign was influenced too much by DC insiders and consultants and that Gideon’s campaign was clouded by this.

To be clear, it was not like Gideon immediately lost the Senate race when the DSCC endorsed her candidacy. This was early in the primary race. However, the DSCC was more of an albatross than a real game changer for Gideon.

https://youtu.be/chUCk-1NVaM?feature=shared

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michaelflutist's avatar

Is that evidence? It's someone's opinion, though granted, he's a political reporter in the state. Do you know more about Bernard's track record?

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PollJunkie's avatar

Mainers in the reddit sub seemed to have the same opinion so who knows, It may be correct.

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michaelflutist's avatar

My opinion is that Collins would have won regardless of who did or didn't endorse her opponent.

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Zero Cool's avatar

What Bernard had observed was that the DSCC’s endorsement lead to bigger problems with the Gideon campaign where it became too DC insider driven instead of being a Maine-centric campaign. This clouded Gideon’s ability to connect with voters, even in spite of the fact that she was a State House Leader.

The narrative Bernard is raising has merit as others like the Maine Public and a columnist at Slate were pointing out the following facts:

-Both Sara Gideon and Susan Collins got plenty of considerable donations outside of Maine.

-Collins thought by contrast ran a campaign more focused on Maine centric issues. Gideon did not as much.

-Gideon’s campaign focused too much on ads and didn’t invest as much at the local level in campaigning. These ads followed by negative campaign pieces in the mail, which ended up turning off Mainers.

https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2020-11-04/why-joe-bidens-maine-victory-didnt-translate-down-the-ballot-to-sara-gideon

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/why-susan-collins-won.html

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michaelflutist's avatar

It sounds like at least most of the problem wasn't down to endorsements or funding but mistakes in campaign strategy and implementation.

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Mike in MD's avatar

It’s great that he wants to end Citizens United. Until that happens, I mostly roll my eyes at candidates who only will fundraise through the “pass the hat and put in 10 or 20” method and denounce other means as corrupt.

And abstract, idealistic arguments about campaign finance are not election winners, at least when a campaign makes them its main issue.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Your argument makes sense. I’d prefer Jason Wood be a real Senate candidate and offer more than just the ending Citizens United initiative to sell his candidacy.

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slothlax's avatar

Chellie Pingree and Shenna Bellows already got creamed by Collins in 2002 and 2014. In between, Tom Allen couldn't even carry his own congressional district in 2008 while Obama was crushing it. Her initial opponent for the open seat was also a sitting Congressman and her last opponent was the Speaker of the State House, it's not like she has had a lack of strength from her opponents. All the while the state has been blue and she's won three times in presidential years.

I'm not suggesting that a Pingree or Bellows rematch would necessarily turn out the same way, just that I get why prominent Maine Democrats might be hesitant to take on Collins.

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Kevin H.'s avatar

No guts, no glory. One of them is going to have an L on their run for governor and they'll deserve it.

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slothlax's avatar

That's the sort of logic that leads to things like the Charge of the Light Brigade 😂

Which is why Mills is the obvious candidate to me, she has nothing to lose. And she's basically a reverse Rick Scott, a termed-out governor taking on an entrenched out party incumbent Senator is about the strongest profile you can ask for.

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

If she was 10-20 years younger she would be perfect. I think we're kidding ourselves if we think her age won't be a major issue. R's will say she will be 85 at the end of the term.

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slothlax's avatar

Eh, in a race against a thirty-year incumbent who is only five years younger, I don't see age being a strong line of attack.

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

If Mills was five years younger than Collins I would agree. If they were both ten years younger I would agree. We ignore the electorates concerns over age at our own peril.

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Paleo's avatar

It's also the sort of logic that led to D-Day.

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PollJunkie's avatar

It's a good thing that it isn't a presidential year and Trump's non college educated MAGA voters won't turn out.

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Paleo's avatar

It’s ridiculous if none of them take her on.

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bpfish's avatar

Should probably mention that Gov. Janet Mills hasn't officially decided on the Senate race yet and has thoroughly demonstrated that she is still ready to fight. She's 77, but even if she only served one term, that's enough to rid us of Collins, which will make the seat far more likely result to remain blue in subsequent elections. The GOP is no longer producing moderates or even pretenders like Collins who can get elected in places like Maine.

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ArcticStones's avatar

My thinking exactly. Janet Mills is my top choice, and I really hope she jumps into the race.

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Morgan Whitacre's avatar

I was talking to a friend about this last night, and he convinced me that Janet Mills would be the best person because she could probably serve just one or two terms and she’s definitely the person who can be Collins.

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dragonfire5004's avatar

If she jumps in, I think it’ll also be a rather strong sign Democrats believe the wind is blowing at their backs. Going from leader to 1 of 100 is a tall ask, even more so with the likelihood of being in the minority.

It’s also quite possible behind the scenes Mills has said she’s going for it, but not ready to announce yet. If Democrats see a 2018 forming, even a tough opponent like Collins, should be drawing a ton of challengers. That there isn’t screams to me the party or the Democratic elected leaders are leaving the pathway wide open for her in the Senate race.

Or maybe I’m reading too much into things that have nothing to do with what actually happens. I guess we’ll have to wait and see!

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Stargate77's avatar

I don’t think it’s a big ask for a governor to run for Senate. The Senate has a lot of former governors.

I’m not surprised that Collins doesn’t have a lot of challengers yet. An open seat race for Governor is more appealing to prospective candidates than a run against Collins.

With that being said, someone else mentioned in this thread that some of these candidates will feel compelled to switch to the Senate race at some point once they realize that their chances of winning the Democratic primary for Governor are slim. Some of them may be waiting to see how the elections in VA and NJ play out this year before switching to the Senate race.

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Zero Cool's avatar

It will be an easier sell for the gubernatorial race simply because running the State of Maine is far more of an immediate concern considering what Trump has thrown at the state and what Governor Mills has had to deal with in this sense.

However, Mills has nothing to lose by running for the Senate. She may not be there forever but getting Collins out of office will make things easier for Democrats to keep the Senate seat if they win it moving forward.

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Mark's avatar

This is pathetic. There's no reason to believe Susan Collins will be 20 points stronger than her party in a defensive midterm.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Especially after her rather weak showing in 2020. If 2020 had the political environment of 2018 then Collins would have lost. We don't want to count our chickens yet but a 2018-esque environment for 2026 is not an unreasonable prediction.

And if anything I'd argue Collins has gotten weaker since 2020, not stronger.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Are you sure the 2018 environment would have resulted in Collins losing?

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JanusIanitos's avatar

I mean, we can never be 100% certain but I'm reasonably confident.

Easy consistent point to compare is the house popular vote in each cycle. There's about a six point shift from 2018 to 2020, with 2018 being the better cycle. I'll admit this isn't the perfect comparison, as house elections are not 1:1 between cycles.

In the 2020 senate election in Maine, there's a nine point gap separating Gideon from Collins, but that doesn't take into account the RCV in Maine. Since Collins got over 50% on the first round the second and third choices of the two independent candidates was not tabulated. Those two candidates combine for about 6.5 points. The more popular one (five points) was very left leaning.

Now, Gideon wouldn't have gotten all of their votes, and some wouldn't have ranked an alternate at all. But I feel confident that she would have netted ~3 points in the top two in the end if the tabulations would have gone through. Probably losing overall by something like 52-48 or 53-47 or so. Hovering somewhere around a five point loss.

I'd also argue further that the comparison of house popular vote understates the potential shift we would see here. The types of people that normally vote for Collins because she's "moderate" were the kind we were doing atypically better with in 2018, relative to other cycles.

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slothlax's avatar

It's possible that the 2018 environment was strong enough to knock off Collins, but if she were running for reelection that year she absolutely wouldn't have voted to confirm Kavanagh and impeachment hadn't happened yet, those were her two biggest liabilities in 2020.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

True, that's why it's hard to 100% know. All the permutations change other things. I still think it would have been enough but it will remain a mystery for the ages.

Kavanaugh was a damned if she did or didn't situation I suspect: if she was the one that killed his nomination and she was up in 2018 then the base would have been pissed off enough that it's not inconceivable she would have had to go through a primary challenge. One she'd likely win but come out of damaged.

But like I said, permutations that we cannot wholly account for.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Interesting points.

The RCV system was never in place for most of Collins’ Senate runs. She may not benefit as much in 2026 in part because of RCV.

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Samuel Sero's avatar

TX-Sen, Cornyn and Paxton are actually fighting each other on X over the results of the Senate Leadership PAC’s poll showing Cornyn trailing Paxton by double digits: https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/texas/news/tensions-grow-new-poll-shows-senator-cornyn-trailing-attorney-general-paxton-republican-primary-u-s-senate/

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Wolfpack Dem's avatar

I'm still not convinced ANY Dem can win there (yet), but if there is ever a time and place to locate and nominate "Democratic Jesus" it is TX-SEN (2026).

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Burt Kloner's avatar

if paxton is nominee Allred can win..will he? who knows but he sure as hell can.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Agreed. Except, forget Democratic Jesús – that Guatemalan doesn’t stand a chance.

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PollJunkie's avatar

You have a Democratic Jesus in Texas. His name is James Talarico, he loves Jesus and he's going to run against Abbott if it's a favorable environment.

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

Usually a bad omen when campaigns and candidates start denying and challenging polls and numbers....

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Zero Cool's avatar

Good! I hope they continue.

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Harrison Konigstein's avatar

For the record, Paxton himself is to the left of the average GOP Primary voter in most states-basically Adolf Hitler-Genocidal intentions and all is the average GOP primary voter these days.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Which millions of people do they demand to be murdered, rather than deported abroad, do they want their tax dollars to pay for train lines for cattle cars, and where do they want the gas chambers built? Nazis are part of Trump's coalition, but what you're saying may still be a slight exaggeration.

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RainDog2's avatar

Australia: Teal Independent Nicolette Boele has pulled into the lead in the Bradfield electoral division and now is ahead by 39 votes with 93.6% counted. Should the result hold, it would mean a net zero for the Teal Independents, as they narrowly lost the division of Goldstein.

The Teal (i.e. Blue-Green) Independents first emerged in the 2022 election, when 7 Tory seats fell to otherwise conservative independents who supported action on climate change. The Teal Independents are also socially moderate (i.e. on issues like abortion / gay rights). Their brand has definitely held, at least through another election cycle.

Another Tory seat (Calare) was also lost to an Independent (Andrew Gee). But from what I can tell, Gee is not a Teal, but resigned his own seat to run as an Independent and breaks from his former party, The Nationals, over an eclectic set of issues.

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slothlax's avatar

Just looking at Wikipedia, Gee broke with the nativist Nationals over the Indigenous Voices referendum that got over 70% No vote in his district in 2023, yet he still won reelection. That's impressive.

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RainDog2's avatar

I saw that too, though I kind of get the impression that he simply didn't like being told what to do, rather than being a strident supporter of indigenous rights.

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BF's avatar

Kate Hook was the "community independent" (closest to teal) candidate in Calare.

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Mr. Rochester's avatar

IL-Sen: Underwood NOT running for Senate. I wonder what changed her mind and who the favorite is now?

https://x.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1924571564470583342

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Buckeye73's avatar

I wonder if she is being groomed for leadership in the House.

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dragonfire5004's avatar

She waited too long and wasn’t prepared for the early start of the primary campaign. Her lane to victory was closed after many of the CBC (but importantly, not all) ,Congressional Black Caucus, members endorsed Robin Kelly.

As someone who wanted to reward Underwood for taking on the 2018 race flipping the seat, I’m kind of glad she’s not the nominee if this is our first impression of a potential campaign for a very rare Senate opportunity in a blue state (she’d obviously still win if she was the nominee, but this is the basic level of politics if she ever wanted to run).

However, before we jump to any firm conclusions on her for all we know she never really wanted to be in the Senate in a likely minority, compared to a likely majority in 2026 at the level she’s at. Or she liked her job enough and didn’t feel the need to change.

It’ll be an interesting primary to come, regardless.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

I largely agree with you here but I'm not sure it's a case not being prepared. Except in the sense of intentionally not being prepared. That Durbin could retire has been obvious for months. Arguably years. I cannot imagine that she was caught off guard by this and wanted to run but was surprised by the way the primary started.

I think she didn't want to risk giving up her house seat but wasn't 100% committed to staying out until it was obviously too late to change her mind.

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Andrew's avatar

I agree with this take. It’s a big choice for her since she’s so young and this could be the end of her promising political career if she loses a Senate primary.

Big risk, big reward. But if I were her, I’d be just fine with having a long successful House career. She never really had a lane to run in for this race, anyway. She could be the black woman without any institutional support, I spose.

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dragonfire5004's avatar

I think she was the most likely candidate to cobble together the moderate suburban Dems, most of the black voter base + progressives, which would probably be enough to win the Democratic primary. Her ceiling was pretty high had she run imo. She could still have lost the nomination though, I agree that it was more risky politically for her.

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Henrik's avatar

Team Raj it is

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Andrew's avatar

I wonder if he’ll fundraise as hard for the party if he becomes a Senator. He’s done a great job stocking pile for a promotion, hopefully he’d work as hard to get in the majority.

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Darren Monaghan's avatar

Surprised me.

Juliana Stratton, no-brainer now!!

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PollJunkie's avatar

JB Pritkzer was reported to be very against her candidacy and has thrown his entire political machine behind Stratton as reported by the press.

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