Looks like every high-profile Dem in Maine intends to run for Governor, with no one willing to run against Collins. Bellows and King III are already in. Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson are setting themselves up to run. A Gov campaign by Hannah makes a Senate campaign by her mother Chellie far less likely. And rounding it out, Jared Golde…
Looks like every high-profile Dem in Maine intends to run for Governor, with no one willing to run against Collins. Bellows and King III are already in. Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson are setting themselves up to run. A Gov campaign by Hannah makes a Senate campaign by her mother Chellie far less likely. And rounding it out, Jared Golden has been looking at the Gov race and is likely not going to run against Collins (his former boss) either. So that's *checks notes* everyone running for Governor and *checks notes again* no one running against Collins.
Obviously the open Gov seat in a light blue state is a much easier reach than running against Collins, but they can't all win. At a certain point, the ones polling 3rd or 4th in the Gov race might start liking their odds better as the most high-profile Dem in the race against Collins. Hopefully that happens sooner than later. Collins won her last race with only 51% and is going to be up against the most unfavorable political climate of her career.
Yeah, I like his background, but I think he's punching up a bit too far. Also, his history with Porter (a well-known progressive from a faraway state) may not be a plus for certain voters in Maine.
I’m sure there will be another another Democratic Senate candidate besides Wood who announces a run at some point. Wood only announced a few weeks ago so he’s early in his Senate campaign.
I take comfort in knowing that Wood is not going to face the same face as Sara Gideon in light of the fact that he wants to have a PAC-free campaign and that the DSCC isn’t going to endorse his campaign early on. That alone isn’t enough for him to unseat Susan Collins but it’s a start.
Yes, and I don't think anyone gives the tiniest fuck about PACs, national committees, or other campaign resources that may seem "impure," now that we're living in Qatar-a-Lago. The Republic has fallen. Anything that provides an advantage is a good thing.
Yes but does the funding have corrupting influence on the campaign? It depends on where the funding sources are coming from and how influential they are in a state like Maine.
DSCC’s decision to endorse Sara Gideon’s Senate campaign early on in the primary cycle effectively destroyed her chances at unseating Susan Collins back in 2020, even though Collins won re-election by the smallest margin of victory since her first Senate campaign back in 1996.
FYI, I am not against PACs or other committees in principle getting involved in a Senate campaign. However, since we’re talking about Maine, it would be preferable if all Democratic Senate candidates this early in the cycle walk the walk first, then get more PAC support as it gets to a few months before the actual primary.
CBS News interviewed Nathan Bernard, reporter for the Mainer, on the DSCC’s impact on Sara Gideon’s Senate campaign.
He argues that on June 25th, 2019, Gideon’s campaign was doomed. The DSCC’s involvement nationalized the race and made it harder for Gideon to run a real credible campaign that resonated with Mainers. This meant that her campaign was influenced too much by DC insiders and consultants and that Gideon’s campaign was clouded by this.
To be clear, it was not like Gideon immediately lost the Senate race when the DSCC endorsed her candidacy. This was early in the primary race. However, the DSCC was more of an albatross than a real game changer for Gideon.
What Bernard had observed was that the DSCC’s endorsement lead to bigger problems with the Gideon campaign where it became too DC insider driven instead of being a Maine-centric campaign. This clouded Gideon’s ability to connect with voters, even in spite of the fact that she was a State House Leader.
The narrative Bernard is raising has merit as others like the Maine Public and a columnist at Slate were pointing out the following facts:
-Both Sara Gideon and Susan Collins got plenty of considerable donations outside of Maine.
-Collins thought by contrast ran a campaign more focused on Maine centric issues. Gideon did not as much.
-Gideon’s campaign focused too much on ads and didn’t invest as much at the local level in campaigning. These ads followed by negative campaign pieces in the mail, which ended up turning off Mainers.
It’s great that he wants to end Citizens United. Until that happens, I mostly roll my eyes at candidates who only will fundraise through the “pass the hat and put in 10 or 20” method and denounce other means as corrupt.
And abstract, idealistic arguments about campaign finance are not election winners, at least when a campaign makes them its main issue.
Your argument makes sense. I’d prefer Jason Wood be a real Senate candidate and offer more than just the ending Citizens United initiative to sell his candidacy.
Chellie Pingree and Shenna Bellows already got creamed by Collins in 2002 and 2014. In between, Tom Allen couldn't even carry his own congressional district in 2008 while Obama was crushing it. Her initial opponent for the open seat was also a sitting Congressman and her last opponent was the Speaker of the State House, it's not like she has had a lack of strength from her opponents. All the while the state has been blue and she's won three times in presidential years.
I'm not suggesting that a Pingree or Bellows rematch would necessarily turn out the same way, just that I get why prominent Maine Democrats might be hesitant to take on Collins.
That's the sort of logic that leads to things like the Charge of the Light Brigade 😂
Which is why Mills is the obvious candidate to me, she has nothing to lose. And she's basically a reverse Rick Scott, a termed-out governor taking on an entrenched out party incumbent Senator is about the strongest profile you can ask for.
If she was 10-20 years younger she would be perfect. I think we're kidding ourselves if we think her age won't be a major issue. R's will say she will be 85 at the end of the term.
If Mills was five years younger than Collins I would agree. If they were both ten years younger I would agree. We ignore the electorates concerns over age at our own peril.
Should probably mention that Gov. Janet Mills hasn't officially decided on the Senate race yet and has thoroughly demonstrated that she is still ready to fight. She's 77, but even if she only served one term, that's enough to rid us of Collins, which will make the seat far more likely result to remain blue in subsequent elections. The GOP is no longer producing moderates or even pretenders like Collins who can get elected in places like Maine.
I was talking to a friend about this last night, and he convinced me that Janet Mills would be the best person because she could probably serve just one or two terms and she’s definitely the person who can be Collins.
If she jumps in, I think it’ll also be a rather strong sign Democrats believe the wind is blowing at their backs. Going from leader to 1 of 100 is a tall ask, even more so with the likelihood of being in the minority.
It’s also quite possible behind the scenes Mills has said she’s going for it, but not ready to announce yet. If Democrats see a 2018 forming, even a tough opponent like Collins, should be drawing a ton of challengers. That there isn’t screams to me the party or the Democratic elected leaders are leaving the pathway wide open for her in the Senate race.
Or maybe I’m reading too much into things that have nothing to do with what actually happens. I guess we’ll have to wait and see!
I don’t think it’s a big ask for a governor to run for Senate. The Senate has a lot of former governors.
I’m not surprised that Collins doesn’t have a lot of challengers yet. An open seat race for Governor is more appealing to prospective candidates than a run against Collins.
With that being said, someone else mentioned in this thread that some of these candidates will feel compelled to switch to the Senate race at some point once they realize that their chances of winning the Democratic primary for Governor are slim. Some of them may be waiting to see how the elections in VA and NJ play out this year before switching to the Senate race.
It will be an easier sell for the gubernatorial race simply because running the State of Maine is far more of an immediate concern considering what Trump has thrown at the state and what Governor Mills has had to deal with in this sense.
However, Mills has nothing to lose by running for the Senate. She may not be there forever but getting Collins out of office will make things easier for Democrats to keep the Senate seat if they win it moving forward.
Especially after her rather weak showing in 2020. If 2020 had the political environment of 2018 then Collins would have lost. We don't want to count our chickens yet but a 2018-esque environment for 2026 is not an unreasonable prediction.
And if anything I'd argue Collins has gotten weaker since 2020, not stronger.
I mean, we can never be 100% certain but I'm reasonably confident.
Easy consistent point to compare is the house popular vote in each cycle. There's about a six point shift from 2018 to 2020, with 2018 being the better cycle. I'll admit this isn't the perfect comparison, as house elections are not 1:1 between cycles.
In the 2020 senate election in Maine, there's a nine point gap separating Gideon from Collins, but that doesn't take into account the RCV in Maine. Since Collins got over 50% on the first round the second and third choices of the two independent candidates was not tabulated. Those two candidates combine for about 6.5 points. The more popular one (five points) was very left leaning.
Now, Gideon wouldn't have gotten all of their votes, and some wouldn't have ranked an alternate at all. But I feel confident that she would have netted ~3 points in the top two in the end if the tabulations would have gone through. Probably losing overall by something like 52-48 or 53-47 or so. Hovering somewhere around a five point loss.
I'd also argue further that the comparison of house popular vote understates the potential shift we would see here. The types of people that normally vote for Collins because she's "moderate" were the kind we were doing atypically better with in 2018, relative to other cycles.
It's possible that the 2018 environment was strong enough to knock off Collins, but if she were running for reelection that year she absolutely wouldn't have voted to confirm Kavanagh and impeachment hadn't happened yet, those were her two biggest liabilities in 2020.
True, that's why it's hard to 100% know. All the permutations change other things. I still think it would have been enough but it will remain a mystery for the ages.
Kavanaugh was a damned if she did or didn't situation I suspect: if she was the one that killed his nomination and she was up in 2018 then the base would have been pissed off enough that it's not inconceivable she would have had to go through a primary challenge. One she'd likely win but come out of damaged.
But like I said, permutations that we cannot wholly account for.
Looks like every high-profile Dem in Maine intends to run for Governor, with no one willing to run against Collins. Bellows and King III are already in. Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson are setting themselves up to run. A Gov campaign by Hannah makes a Senate campaign by her mother Chellie far less likely. And rounding it out, Jared Golden has been looking at the Gov race and is likely not going to run against Collins (his former boss) either. So that's *checks notes* everyone running for Governor and *checks notes again* no one running against Collins.
Obviously the open Gov seat in a light blue state is a much easier reach than running against Collins, but they can't all win. At a certain point, the ones polling 3rd or 4th in the Gov race might start liking their odds better as the most high-profile Dem in the race against Collins. Hopefully that happens sooner than later. Collins won her last race with only 51% and is going to be up against the most unfavorable political climate of her career.
There is one Democratic Senate candidate currently in the race, Jordan Wood, who is VP of End Citizens United.
https://electjordan.com/
https://spectrumlocalnews.com/me/maine/politics/2025/04/24/democrat-announces-bid-to-unseat-maine-sen--susan-collins
Yeah, I like his background, but I think he's punching up a bit too far. Also, his history with Porter (a well-known progressive from a faraway state) may not be a plus for certain voters in Maine.
I’m sure there will be another another Democratic Senate candidate besides Wood who announces a run at some point. Wood only announced a few weeks ago so he’s early in his Senate campaign.
I take comfort in knowing that Wood is not going to face the same face as Sara Gideon in light of the fact that he wants to have a PAC-free campaign and that the DSCC isn’t going to endorse his campaign early on. That alone isn’t enough for him to unseat Susan Collins but it’s a start.
Those things sound like -disadvantages-. Funding is good and needed!
Yes, and I don't think anyone gives the tiniest fuck about PACs, national committees, or other campaign resources that may seem "impure," now that we're living in Qatar-a-Lago. The Republic has fallen. Anything that provides an advantage is a good thing.
I agree. All hands on deck!
Sure but do you want the support early on in the Senate campaign for a candidate to backfire?
Remember, we are talking about Maine and Susan Collins, not about the other Senate races.
Yes but does the funding have corrupting influence on the campaign? It depends on where the funding sources are coming from and how influential they are in a state like Maine.
DSCC’s decision to endorse Sara Gideon’s Senate campaign early on in the primary cycle effectively destroyed her chances at unseating Susan Collins back in 2020, even though Collins won re-election by the smallest margin of victory since her first Senate campaign back in 1996.
FYI, I am not against PACs or other committees in principle getting involved in a Senate campaign. However, since we’re talking about Maine, it would be preferable if all Democratic Senate candidates this early in the cycle walk the walk first, then get more PAC support as it gets to a few months before the actual primary.
Please provide clear evidence that the DSCC's decision to endorse that campaign caused her to lose. I don't believe that at all.
CBS News interviewed Nathan Bernard, reporter for the Mainer, on the DSCC’s impact on Sara Gideon’s Senate campaign.
He argues that on June 25th, 2019, Gideon’s campaign was doomed. The DSCC’s involvement nationalized the race and made it harder for Gideon to run a real credible campaign that resonated with Mainers. This meant that her campaign was influenced too much by DC insiders and consultants and that Gideon’s campaign was clouded by this.
To be clear, it was not like Gideon immediately lost the Senate race when the DSCC endorsed her candidacy. This was early in the primary race. However, the DSCC was more of an albatross than a real game changer for Gideon.
https://youtu.be/chUCk-1NVaM?feature=shared
Is that evidence? It's someone's opinion, though granted, he's a political reporter in the state. Do you know more about Bernard's track record?
Mainers in the reddit sub seemed to have the same opinion so who knows, It may be correct.
My opinion is that Collins would have won regardless of who did or didn't endorse her opponent.
What Bernard had observed was that the DSCC’s endorsement lead to bigger problems with the Gideon campaign where it became too DC insider driven instead of being a Maine-centric campaign. This clouded Gideon’s ability to connect with voters, even in spite of the fact that she was a State House Leader.
The narrative Bernard is raising has merit as others like the Maine Public and a columnist at Slate were pointing out the following facts:
-Both Sara Gideon and Susan Collins got plenty of considerable donations outside of Maine.
-Collins thought by contrast ran a campaign more focused on Maine centric issues. Gideon did not as much.
-Gideon’s campaign focused too much on ads and didn’t invest as much at the local level in campaigning. These ads followed by negative campaign pieces in the mail, which ended up turning off Mainers.
https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2020-11-04/why-joe-bidens-maine-victory-didnt-translate-down-the-ballot-to-sara-gideon
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/why-susan-collins-won.html
It sounds like at least most of the problem wasn't down to endorsements or funding but mistakes in campaign strategy and implementation.
It’s great that he wants to end Citizens United. Until that happens, I mostly roll my eyes at candidates who only will fundraise through the “pass the hat and put in 10 or 20” method and denounce other means as corrupt.
And abstract, idealistic arguments about campaign finance are not election winners, at least when a campaign makes them its main issue.
Your argument makes sense. I’d prefer Jason Wood be a real Senate candidate and offer more than just the ending Citizens United initiative to sell his candidacy.
Chellie Pingree and Shenna Bellows already got creamed by Collins in 2002 and 2014. In between, Tom Allen couldn't even carry his own congressional district in 2008 while Obama was crushing it. Her initial opponent for the open seat was also a sitting Congressman and her last opponent was the Speaker of the State House, it's not like she has had a lack of strength from her opponents. All the while the state has been blue and she's won three times in presidential years.
I'm not suggesting that a Pingree or Bellows rematch would necessarily turn out the same way, just that I get why prominent Maine Democrats might be hesitant to take on Collins.
No guts, no glory. One of them is going to have an L on their run for governor and they'll deserve it.
That's the sort of logic that leads to things like the Charge of the Light Brigade 😂
Which is why Mills is the obvious candidate to me, she has nothing to lose. And she's basically a reverse Rick Scott, a termed-out governor taking on an entrenched out party incumbent Senator is about the strongest profile you can ask for.
If she was 10-20 years younger she would be perfect. I think we're kidding ourselves if we think her age won't be a major issue. R's will say she will be 85 at the end of the term.
Eh, in a race against a thirty-year incumbent who is only five years younger, I don't see age being a strong line of attack.
If Mills was five years younger than Collins I would agree. If they were both ten years younger I would agree. We ignore the electorates concerns over age at our own peril.
It's also the sort of logic that led to D-Day.
It's a good thing that it isn't a presidential year and Trump's non college educated MAGA voters won't turn out.
It’s ridiculous if none of them take her on.
Should probably mention that Gov. Janet Mills hasn't officially decided on the Senate race yet and has thoroughly demonstrated that she is still ready to fight. She's 77, but even if she only served one term, that's enough to rid us of Collins, which will make the seat far more likely result to remain blue in subsequent elections. The GOP is no longer producing moderates or even pretenders like Collins who can get elected in places like Maine.
My thinking exactly. Janet Mills is my top choice, and I really hope she jumps into the race.
I was talking to a friend about this last night, and he convinced me that Janet Mills would be the best person because she could probably serve just one or two terms and she’s definitely the person who can be Collins.
If she jumps in, I think it’ll also be a rather strong sign Democrats believe the wind is blowing at their backs. Going from leader to 1 of 100 is a tall ask, even more so with the likelihood of being in the minority.
It’s also quite possible behind the scenes Mills has said she’s going for it, but not ready to announce yet. If Democrats see a 2018 forming, even a tough opponent like Collins, should be drawing a ton of challengers. That there isn’t screams to me the party or the Democratic elected leaders are leaving the pathway wide open for her in the Senate race.
Or maybe I’m reading too much into things that have nothing to do with what actually happens. I guess we’ll have to wait and see!
I don’t think it’s a big ask for a governor to run for Senate. The Senate has a lot of former governors.
I’m not surprised that Collins doesn’t have a lot of challengers yet. An open seat race for Governor is more appealing to prospective candidates than a run against Collins.
With that being said, someone else mentioned in this thread that some of these candidates will feel compelled to switch to the Senate race at some point once they realize that their chances of winning the Democratic primary for Governor are slim. Some of them may be waiting to see how the elections in VA and NJ play out this year before switching to the Senate race.
It will be an easier sell for the gubernatorial race simply because running the State of Maine is far more of an immediate concern considering what Trump has thrown at the state and what Governor Mills has had to deal with in this sense.
However, Mills has nothing to lose by running for the Senate. She may not be there forever but getting Collins out of office will make things easier for Democrats to keep the Senate seat if they win it moving forward.
I wrote an article about this! https://sammatey.substack.com/p/governor-janet-mills-of-maine-should
This is pathetic. There's no reason to believe Susan Collins will be 20 points stronger than her party in a defensive midterm.
Especially after her rather weak showing in 2020. If 2020 had the political environment of 2018 then Collins would have lost. We don't want to count our chickens yet but a 2018-esque environment for 2026 is not an unreasonable prediction.
And if anything I'd argue Collins has gotten weaker since 2020, not stronger.
Are you sure the 2018 environment would have resulted in Collins losing?
I mean, we can never be 100% certain but I'm reasonably confident.
Easy consistent point to compare is the house popular vote in each cycle. There's about a six point shift from 2018 to 2020, with 2018 being the better cycle. I'll admit this isn't the perfect comparison, as house elections are not 1:1 between cycles.
In the 2020 senate election in Maine, there's a nine point gap separating Gideon from Collins, but that doesn't take into account the RCV in Maine. Since Collins got over 50% on the first round the second and third choices of the two independent candidates was not tabulated. Those two candidates combine for about 6.5 points. The more popular one (five points) was very left leaning.
Now, Gideon wouldn't have gotten all of their votes, and some wouldn't have ranked an alternate at all. But I feel confident that she would have netted ~3 points in the top two in the end if the tabulations would have gone through. Probably losing overall by something like 52-48 or 53-47 or so. Hovering somewhere around a five point loss.
I'd also argue further that the comparison of house popular vote understates the potential shift we would see here. The types of people that normally vote for Collins because she's "moderate" were the kind we were doing atypically better with in 2018, relative to other cycles.
It's possible that the 2018 environment was strong enough to knock off Collins, but if she were running for reelection that year she absolutely wouldn't have voted to confirm Kavanagh and impeachment hadn't happened yet, those were her two biggest liabilities in 2020.
True, that's why it's hard to 100% know. All the permutations change other things. I still think it would have been enough but it will remain a mystery for the ages.
Kavanaugh was a damned if she did or didn't situation I suspect: if she was the one that killed his nomination and she was up in 2018 then the base would have been pissed off enough that it's not inconceivable she would have had to go through a primary challenge. One she'd likely win but come out of damaged.
But like I said, permutations that we cannot wholly account for.
Interesting points.
The RCV system was never in place for most of Collins’ Senate runs. She may not benefit as much in 2026 in part because of RCV.