First, be realistic on the turnout differential. Black voters are a whole lot younger than White voters, such that even each age cohort has matching turnout rate, since young voters are less likely to vote than seniors, there is always a turnout differential. Baked in about 8-10pt, depending on the youth turnout rate. This year it is par…
First, be realistic on the turnout differential. Black voters are a whole lot younger than White voters, such that even each age cohort has matching turnout rate, since young voters are less likely to vote than seniors, there is always a turnout differential. Baked in about 8-10pt, depending on the youth turnout rate. This year it is particularly large, as on age groups 40 or older, Black voters’ turnout is just slightly lower than White counterparts, younger Black voters turnout is 20pt lower than young White voters.
Second. Stop playing identity politics! It is not that Democrats put up a minority candidate there will be a huge upswing of sporadic voters in the same ethnic group.
First, be realistic on the turnout differential. Black voters are a whole lot younger than White voters, such that even each age cohort has matching turnout rate, since young voters are less likely to vote than seniors, there is always a turnout differential. Baked in about 8-10pt, depending on the youth turnout rate. This year it is particularly large, as on age groups 40 or older, Black voters’ turnout is just slightly lower than White counterparts, younger Black voters turnout is 20pt lower than young White voters.
Second. Stop playing identity politics! It is not that Democrats put up a minority candidate there will be a huge upswing of sporadic voters in the same ethnic group.