Morning Digest: The North Carolina GOP is stuck with Mark Robinson

And he could harm them all the way down the ballot

North Carolina Republican Mark Robinson in a video denying allegations in a new CNN report and vowing to remain in the race for governor (credit: Mark Robinson YouTube)

Leading Off

NC-Gov

A desperate, last-second attempt by North Carolina Republicans to oust their disastrous gubernatorial nominee just ahead of Thursday's deadline to withdraw from the ballot sputtered out after Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson refused to step aside despite calls to do so.

Robinson's critics hoped that a new report from CNN would give them the leverage to force the lieutenant governor out of the race. But the new message board postings unearthed by the article, while appalling, did not differ substantially from the plethora of offensive commentary Robinson has long been known for.

A defiant Robinson released a video shortly before CNN's story came out in which he claimed he had not written any of the posts attributed to him and vowed to stay in the race. But even had Robinson dropped out, he would still have appeared on ballots, which have already been printed and were slated to be mailed out starting on Friday. Instead, GOP leaders would have chosen a replacement candidate, who would have received any votes cast for Robinson.

The effort to boot Robinson came amid a cavalcade of terrible poll numbers for the Republican that stretches back months. The drumbeat continued with a quartet of new polls on Thursday that all showed Attorney General Josh Stein, Robinson's Democratic opponent, with sizable leads.

Morning Consult found the widest gap, putting Stein ahead 50-37, with Emerson placing the Democrat’s advantage at 48-40. A pair of Republican pollsters were not far off Emerson’s numbers: One, Cygnal, gave Stein a similar 46-39 edge in a survey conducted for the conservative John Lock Foundation, while another, Victory Insights, had Stein in front 47-42.

Robinson continues to demonstrate weakness not shared by the rest of the Republican ticket. Both GOP polls had Donald Trump in front in the presidential race, for instance, with Cygnal putting him up 46-45 and Victory Insights placing him ahead by a larger 49-45 spread. Emerson, meanwhile, had Kamala Harris narrowly leading 49-48, while Morning Consult showed her ahead 49-47.

The GOP's predicament, however, was by no means unexpected. Robinson's history of racist, sexist, antisemitic, anti-LGBTQ, and anti-Muslim rhetoric was well-known before he launched his bid to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, but Republican primary voters supported him en masse anyway—perhaps even because of, not in spite of, his reputation.

Some Republicans tried to forestall the nightmare scenario they now face by trying to stop Robinson in the March primary, to which The Downballot said in a headline, "Good luck with that." Armed with name recognition and Donald Trump's endorsement, Robinson predictably cruised to the GOP nomination with 65% of the vote; his nearest rival took less than 20%.

But while some polls taken after the primary showed Robinson leading Stein, Democrats waged a well-funded campaign highlighting the lieutenant governor's noxious pronouncements.

Robinson tried to soften his image last month with a TV ad in which he appeared with his wife and acknowledged that she had gotten an abortion three decades ago. That experience, Robinson claimed, was why he "stands by our current law," which permits abortion through 12 weeks of pregnancy.

Soon after, Robinson undermined his own message when he was recorded saying he wanted to "get down to zero" weeks. His advertising campaign also did little to reassure his many intraparty skeptics, including the outside groups he needed to assuage and bring on board.

NOTUS reported two weeks ago that Stein and his backers held a massive $16 million to $1 million edge in ad reservations over the GOP side. One of Robinson's vanquished primary foes also used the story to get in some I-told-you-so's.

"I said this would happen over and over again, and so I don't know why it's a surprise to people," said Bill Graham, who came in third in March. "He can't moderate his positions now because, at this point, the average voter has a decidedly set opinion about him. And the hits keep coming."

It's not just the governor's race that's slipping out of reach for North Carolina Republicans. Other elections further down the ballot could also be impacted by Robinson's damaging candidacy. Republicans are hoping to flip the open attorney general's post, unseat state Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs, and preserve their gerrymandered supermajorities in the state legislature, among other things. (We discuss new polling on several of these contests in a separate item in our Other Races section below.)

And in the worst-case scenario, a demoralized GOP electorate could be just enough to help Harris become the first Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina's electoral votes since Barack Obama in 2008. Robinson could wind up providing the most vivid redux of 2022, when deeply flawed Republican candidates cost the GOP badly in many swing states, but in a presidential year, he could wreak even more havoc than usual.

Ballot Measures

AZ Ballot

A state judge delivered a favorable ruling to backers of a constitutional amendment to abolish partisan primaries and institute a form of ranked-choice voting after he determined that its opponents failed to demonstrate that the measure lacked enough signatures to appear on the ballot.

The Arizona Mirror, however, says that Proposition 140's detractors will appeal to the state Supreme Court. The proposal will appear on the ballot no matter what, but the state's highest court has the power to order votes not to be counted in this contest.

Ballot Measures

Various organizations recently publicized new polls of different ballot measures across the country, several of which we highlight below. We won't be covering every result, though—California alone has 10 measures to sort through—so we recommend clicking on the link to each poll for more.

California

The Public Policy Institute of California shows a strong 71-26 majority in favor of Proposition 36, which would increase the punishment for several crimes related to drug possession and theft whose penalties were reduced a decade ago. A poll from UC Berkeley last month showed a smaller, though still substantive, 56-23 majority in support of the plan despite the ardent opposition of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Things are as tight as they can be, though, when it comes to a proposal to raise the state minimum wage to $18 an hour. Respondents favor Proposition 32 by a tiny 50-49 spread, which is quite different from the 52-34 support for "yes" that UC Berkeley showed last month.

Separately, PPIC finds two seemingly unrelated plans backed by rival groups both prevailing. Voters favor Proposition 33, which would give local governments more power to institute rent controls, 51-46. Proposition 34, which would place restrictions on how certain healthcare providers spend money, also leads 53-43. As we recently wrote, Proposition 34 is targeting the political activities of the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, which is the chief backer of Proposition 33.

Massachusetts

The University of New Hampshire shows a 48-28 plurality in support of Question 3, which would allow rideshare drivers to unionize in Massachusetts. A 51-20 majority also favor Question 4, which would allow people over the age of 21 to possess a limited amount of psychedelic substances. Question 5, which would apply the state's minimum wage to tipped employees, likewise leads 51-33. (The current minimum wage is $15 an hour but just $6.75 for tipped workers.)

New York

Siena College shows New York's Equal Rights Amendment decisively passing 64-23, which is only a slight tick downward from the 68-23 spread the school found last month. Despite these results, though, Politico recently reported that state Democrats feared that Republicans were successfully demonizing Proposal 1, which among other things bans discrimination on the basis of "sexual orientation," "gender expression," and "reproductive healthcare and autonomy."

Rhode Island

UNH finds a 39-28 plurality want Rhode Island to hold a state constitutional convention, a question that automatically comes up once per decade, but a hefty 33% are undecided. Labor and civil rights groups are urging a "no" vote. The state AFL-CIO explained its stance by saying, "We are not going to let the corporate powers take away our rights."

Mayors & County Leaders

San Diego, CA Mayor

SurveyUSA unexpectedly finds San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria leading his opponent, independent Larry Turner, by a small 37-33 margin in an officially nonpartisan race that had long looked like an easy campaign for the Democratic incumbent. Another 28% say they're undecided between Gloria, who won this office four years ago, and Turner, who is a police officer and first-time candidate. 

We always caution, however, that one poll should never determine your outlook on a race, and that's especially true when that poll shows a large portion of voters haven't made up their minds.

Before this survey was released, Gloria seemed to be on a glide path to victory. The mayor outpaced Turner 50-23 in the March primary, and he ended June with a $380,000 to $30,000 cash on hand lead. And a July poll from SurveyUSA, which was also conducted for the San Diego Union-Tribune and 10 News, gave Gloria a much wider 36-23 advantage.

Turner, though, is hoping that there's enough anger with the status quo to propel him to victory in California's second-largest city. The challenger used Wednesday evening's debate to argue that Gloria has done a poor job addressing crime and homelessness, while the mayor defended his record.

Other Races

North Carolina

The Republican firm Cygnal's new survey for the conservative John Locke Foundation finds tight battles for North Carolina's many statewide races taking place further down the ballot while Donald Trump leads at the top of the ticket by a narrow 46-45 margin.

In a key race for the state Supreme Court, Cygnal gives incumbent Justice Allison Riggs a small 44-41 advantage over Republican Jefferson Griffin; by contrast, Griffin enjoyed a 40-37 edge in Cygnal's August survey. Democrats need Riggs to win a new eight-year term this fall as part of a multi-cycle plan that represents their only realistic path toward rolling back the GOP's iron grip on state politics.

Cygnal also asks voters about each of the ten races for offices in the state's executive branch, which is known as the Council of State. Apart from the governor's race (see our lead item), the best result for either party was Democrat Mo Green's 43-39 lead over conspiracy theorist Michele Morrow in the contest for superintendent of public instruction. Last month, the firm showed Morrow leading 42-37.

Morrow, who was at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, attracted national attention in March after she defeated incumbent Catherine Truitt in the GOP primary. Morrow had previously denounced public schools as "indoctrination centers" and called for Donald Trump to use the military to remain in power. She earned more notice this week when she fired off a homophobic tweet.

Another major race to watch is the contest for attorney general, one of the most powerful offices in the state. Cygnal gives Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson a 45-43 edge against Republican colleague Dan Bishop; Bishop led 42-38 last month in the race to replace Josh Stein, who is the Democratic nominee for governor.

Jackson has highlighted the danger of making Bishop, who is one of the most prominent conservative hardliners in Congress, the state's top law enforcement officer. He also swiftly hammered Bishop on Thursday over his full-throated support of Mark Robinson, Stein's opponent.

Cygnal shows Republicans with narrow leads in the other four Council of State Races, while Democrats have a small edge in two. The contest for labor commissioner, meanwhile, is a 41-41 deadlock between Republican Luke Farley and Democrat Braxton Winston.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Emerson College for The Hill: Ruben Gallego (D): 48, Kari Lake (R): 42 (49-48 Trump) (Aug.: 49-42 Gallego)

• AZ-Sen: Morning Consult: Gallego (D): 53, Lake (R): 39 (48-47 Harris) (Early Sept.: 49-41 Gallego)

• FL-Sen: Morning Consult: Rick Scott (R-inc): 46, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 42 (50-47 Trump) (Early Sept.: 47-42 Scott)

• MD-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D): Angela Alsobrooks (D): 50, Larry Hogan (R): 33, Mike Scott (L): 6 (64-33 Harris) (June: 45-34 Alsobrooks)

• MD-Sen: Morning Consult: Alsobrooks (D): 50, Hogan (R): 39 (61-33 Harris) (Early Sept.: 48-43 Alsobrooks)

• MI-Sen: Emerson: Elissa Slotkin (D): 47, Mike Rogers (R): 42 (49-47 Harris) (Aug.: 47-41 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: Marist College: Slotkin (D): 52, Rogers (R): 45 (52-47 Harris)

• MI-Sen: Morning Consult: Slotkin (D): 51, Rogers (R): 37 (52-44 Harris) (Early Sept.: 49-40 Slotkin)

• NV-Sen: Emerson: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 48, Sam Brown (R): 41 (48-48 presidential tie) (Aug.: 50-40 Rosen)

• NV-Sen: Morning Consult: Rosen (D-inc): 52, Brown (R): 39 (51-47 Harris) (Early Sept.: 50-40 Brown)

• OH-Sen: Morning Consult: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 46, Bernie Moreno (R): 44 (52-43 Trump) (Early Sept.: 46-43 Brown)

• PA-Sen: Emerson: Bob Casey (D-inc): 47, Dave McCormick (R): 42 (48-47 Trump) (Aug.: 48-44 Casey)

• PA-Sen: Franklin & Marshall College: Casey (D-inc): 48, McCormick (R): 40 (49-46 Harris) (Aug.: 48-36 Casey)

• PA-Sen: Marist: Casey (D-inc): 52, McCormick (R): 47 (49-49 presidential tie) (June: 52-46 Casey)

• PA-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times and Philadelphia Inquirer: Casey (D-inc): 49, McCormick (R): 40 (49-45 Harris) (Aug.: 51-37 Casey)

• PA-Sen: Braun Research for the Washington Post: Casey (D-inc): 47, McCormick (R): 46 (48-47 Harris)

• PA-Sen: Morning Consult: Casey (D-inc): 49, McCormick (R): 40 (49-47 Harris) (Early Sept.: 49-40 Casey)

• TX-Sen: Morning Consult: Colin Allred (D): 45, Ted Cruz (R-inc): 44 (50-46 Trump) (Early Sept.: 47-42 Cruz)

• WI-Sen: Emerson: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 49, Eric Hovde (R): 46 (49-48 Trump) (Aug.: 49-48 Baldwin)

• WI-Sen: Marist: Baldwin (D-inc): 51, Hovde (R): 48 (50-49 Harris)

• WI-Sen: Morning Consult: Baldwin (D-inc): 50, Hovde (R): 43 (50-44 Harris) (Early Sept.: 49-43 Baldwin)

• NH-Gov: University of New Hampshire: Joyce Craig (D): 47, Kelly Ayotte (R): 46 (54-43 Harris)

• MT-01: Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections: Ryan Zinke (R-inc): 47, Monica Tranel (D): 43, Dennis Hayes (L): 3 (49-43 Trump) 

• NH-01: UNH: Chris Pappas (D-inc): 52, Russell Prescott (R): 35

• NH-02: UNH: Maggie Goodlander (D): 49, Lily Tang Williams (R): 38 

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: Win it Back PAC (Club for Growth affiliate) - anti-Ruben Gallego (D)

• MI-Sen: Senate Majority PAC - anti-Mike Rogers (R)

• AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc); Ciscomani (R-inc) - anti-Kirsten Engel (D)

• CA-16: Sam Liccardo (D)

• CA-41: Will Rollins (D) - anti-Ken Calvert (R-inc)

• CA-45: Derek Tran (D) - anti-Michelle Steel (R-inc)

• CA-49: Mike Levin (D-inc) - anti-Matt Gunderson (R)

• CO-03: Jeff Hurd (R)

• CO-08: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Yadira Caraveo (D-inc)

• IL-17: Joe McGraw (R) - anti-Eric Sorensen (D-inc)

• MD-06: Neil Parrott (R)

• MI-03: Hillary Scholten (D-inc) - anti-Paul Hudson (R)

• MI-07: Curtis Hertel (D) - anti-Tom Barrett (R)

• NM-02: NRCC - anti-Gabe Vasquez (D-inc) (in English and Spanish)

• NV-03: Susie Lee (D-inc) - anti-Drew Johnson (R)

• OR-04: Val Hoyle (D-inc); Hoyle - anti-Monique DeSpain (R)

• PA-08: Matt Cartwright (D-inc)

• TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (R-inc) (in English and Spanish)

• FL Ballot: Smart and Safe Florida - pro-marijuana legalization (in Spanish)

• PA-AG: Commonwealth Leaders Fund - pro-Dave Sunday (R) and anti-Eugene DePasquale (D) ($800,000 buy)

• NC-LG: Tar Heel Values PAC (Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association affiliate) - anti-Hal Weatherman (R) (here and here)