On thing that stands out extremely well to me on this map (if it’s accurate, big if) that has in part to do with something I mentioned the other day: Both the large minority/majority non-white voter states and the WWC states that used to be a part of the Democratic coalition are equal in their approval rating of Trump.
The emerging swing states are equal to the old swing states in disapproving more than every other GOP stronghold state and the current swing states (except NV) all disapprove of Trump. Alaska, Nevada, Texas are equal in approval to Florida, Iowa and Ohio. Maybe add SC as a mix of both with the same light blue shade.
That seems rather umm unexpected and new? And worth pointing out as none of the recent election results have shown that happening. Now disapproval doesn’t mean they will vote for Democrats, but if the tariffs last until 2026, then it at least seems plausible to me that the party could bounce back from the dead among WWC voters. Which would usher in yet another major coalition shift if that bares out in the midterms.
That would completely upend current conventional wisdom scrambling and greatly expanding Democratic opportunities in both the House and Senate. Just like the 2024 election saw an unexpected coalition shift of minorities towards Republicans, it would be peak irony if the next cycle showed an unexpected shift of white voters towards Democrats.
100% agreed, I think that term needs to be retired permanently from the politicos and armchair enthusiasts lexicon. Voters change and shift all the time based on candidate, policy, timing, opponent or outside factors. There is no such thing as a permanent everlasting coalition. There’s a coalition that may work in one election that may not have worked 2 years later or may break apart or move to the opposite party.
That is the only thing that’s permanent in American elections: change. So we need to be much more open to the seemingly impossible becoming reality whether on the left, right or middle.
This is the problem with The Emerging Democratic Majority, which was gospel for a while. Part of the underlying argument is that racial/ethnic identities are static over time and that the people of those racial/ethnic identities will vote the same way into perpetuity. Both of which are faulty assumptions.
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump_2025?uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&annotations=true&map=true
You can check Trump's approval in each state here. Texas and Nevada are the most interesting ones.
Yikes . . that Nevada number!
Big margin of error on these. No way is Trump actually +22 in Kansas but +4 in South Carolina.
What was Kansas? Trump +16? Some of the states are slightly off in both directions but many are believable
Yaay Maryland! We're at the bottom of the pack!....in terms of Trump approval, with him at 26% here. And my own Civiqs responses helped.
Unlike Vanessa Huxtable, Trump will *not* be having big fun in Baltimore. (Though he is, admittedly, pretty wretched.)
I'll show myself out.
Maybe he’ll stop for donuts in Wilmington, Delaware (Biden’s hometown and one with an transgender House rep) and have his car stolen.
“I want Donald to know it was me.”
On thing that stands out extremely well to me on this map (if it’s accurate, big if) that has in part to do with something I mentioned the other day: Both the large minority/majority non-white voter states and the WWC states that used to be a part of the Democratic coalition are equal in their approval rating of Trump.
The emerging swing states are equal to the old swing states in disapproving more than every other GOP stronghold state and the current swing states (except NV) all disapprove of Trump. Alaska, Nevada, Texas are equal in approval to Florida, Iowa and Ohio. Maybe add SC as a mix of both with the same light blue shade.
That seems rather umm unexpected and new? And worth pointing out as none of the recent election results have shown that happening. Now disapproval doesn’t mean they will vote for Democrats, but if the tariffs last until 2026, then it at least seems plausible to me that the party could bounce back from the dead among WWC voters. Which would usher in yet another major coalition shift if that bares out in the midterms.
That would completely upend current conventional wisdom scrambling and greatly expanding Democratic opportunities in both the House and Senate. Just like the 2024 election saw an unexpected coalition shift of minorities towards Republicans, it would be peak irony if the next cycle showed an unexpected shift of white voters towards Democrats.
A lot of seemingly-durable political realignments turn out to be…not so durable.
One HUGE wildcard is what will become of the Trump Coalition after Trump.
100% agreed, I think that term needs to be retired permanently from the politicos and armchair enthusiasts lexicon. Voters change and shift all the time based on candidate, policy, timing, opponent or outside factors. There is no such thing as a permanent everlasting coalition. There’s a coalition that may work in one election that may not have worked 2 years later or may break apart or move to the opposite party.
That is the only thing that’s permanent in American elections: change. So we need to be much more open to the seemingly impossible becoming reality whether on the left, right or middle.
A decade ago, the conventical wisdom was the House was lost forever and the Senate was our only hope.
And there is currently no shortage of “Dems have lost the Senate FoReVeR” takes.
This is the problem with The Emerging Democratic Majority, which was gospel for a while. Part of the underlying argument is that racial/ethnic identities are static over time and that the people of those racial/ethnic identities will vote the same way into perpetuity. Both of which are faulty assumptions.