In 2016, it was the WWC shift in the exurbs. FL outside of several city centers, is just a giant exurb.
Rural FL is tiny even it showed an overwhelming areas of red shift, since the state was the smallest one in the Old South. If you look at the numbers, all the bright red rural shift caused HRC losing by about 30k more than 2012, less th…
In 2016, it was the WWC shift in the exurbs. FL outside of several city centers, is just a giant exurb.
Rural FL is tiny even it showed an overwhelming areas of red shift, since the state was the smallest one in the Old South. If you look at the numbers, all the bright red rural shift caused HRC losing by about 30k more than 2012, less than half of Obama’s winning margin. Had Everything else been equal, wouldn’t flip the state.
2020, Biden got better number in the cities not in SE, matched or improved marginally in the exurbs, fell further behind in the rurals, and crashed in Dade. The later two were where the further deficit of 250k votes came about.
2024 just crashed everywhere. The electorate there is changing very fast, that you can track from the registration updates from FLSOS. Newly added, party changes, cancellations, etc.
Yeah I don't get the "either or" debate here; to me it's clear Florida has gotten redder for a multitude of reasons; WWC Demosaur areas reddening, RW in-migration, reddening Hispanic cohort etc.
I do think Obama's close wins there masked how generally red Florida has been for the past 40+ years. Clinton didn't even win it in 1992.
I also see a problem in the Palm Beach/Broward county area. We used to get a lot of retirees from the Northeast who tended to vote heavily Democratic while the current group of retirees are not as heavily from the Northeast and are much more conservative. I am also curious at how the ongoing insurance issues with insurance prices rising by huge amounts due to rising flood risks from climate change. I suspect that more educated and more liberal voters will be very wary to move to an area with such a problem while less educated voters and climate change deniers (think low education/high income retirees) will not be deterred by such a problem.
Anecdotally, it seems like a lot of non-MAGA people I know are now avoiding Florida, when it was a popular vacation/retirement destination for people of all political stripes as recently as just before the pandemic.
I also think there's a growing awareness that Florida (especially South Florida) weather is...not for everyone.
Florida getting more Conservative Silent Generation retirees from the Midwest compared to the more liberal Greatest Generation Northeast retirees who preceded them didn't start during Covid.
I see. But then you also had the reverse great migration, young job seekers from other states and foreign immigrants coming in countering those trends right?
The immigration has been a lot of Latinos coming from authoritarian "leftist" regimes (Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua) who lean conservative. I also don't think Miami or Tampa attracted the sort of young educated liberal demos like Atlanta, Research Triangle, or NOVA did, but that's based more on vibes-I don't know the actual data there.
Venezuelans and Nicaraguans backed Democrats until 2020. You could be right about the young educated demos thing. Even I feel that Florida attracted more midwestern WCWs than them.
In 2016, it was the WWC shift in the exurbs. FL outside of several city centers, is just a giant exurb.
Rural FL is tiny even it showed an overwhelming areas of red shift, since the state was the smallest one in the Old South. If you look at the numbers, all the bright red rural shift caused HRC losing by about 30k more than 2012, less than half of Obama’s winning margin. Had Everything else been equal, wouldn’t flip the state.
2020, Biden got better number in the cities not in SE, matched or improved marginally in the exurbs, fell further behind in the rurals, and crashed in Dade. The later two were where the further deficit of 250k votes came about.
2024 just crashed everywhere. The electorate there is changing very fast, that you can track from the registration updates from FLSOS. Newly added, party changes, cancellations, etc.
Yeah I don't get the "either or" debate here; to me it's clear Florida has gotten redder for a multitude of reasons; WWC Demosaur areas reddening, RW in-migration, reddening Hispanic cohort etc.
I do think Obama's close wins there masked how generally red Florida has been for the past 40+ years. Clinton didn't even win it in 1992.
I also see a problem in the Palm Beach/Broward county area. We used to get a lot of retirees from the Northeast who tended to vote heavily Democratic while the current group of retirees are not as heavily from the Northeast and are much more conservative. I am also curious at how the ongoing insurance issues with insurance prices rising by huge amounts due to rising flood risks from climate change. I suspect that more educated and more liberal voters will be very wary to move to an area with such a problem while less educated voters and climate change deniers (think low education/high income retirees) will not be deterred by such a problem.
Anecdotally, it seems like a lot of non-MAGA people I know are now avoiding Florida, when it was a popular vacation/retirement destination for people of all political stripes as recently as just before the pandemic.
I also think there's a growing awareness that Florida (especially South Florida) weather is...not for everyone.
RW in migration would not be relevant for 2020.
Florida getting more Conservative Silent Generation retirees from the Midwest compared to the more liberal Greatest Generation Northeast retirees who preceded them didn't start during Covid.
I see. But then you also had the reverse great migration, young job seekers from other states and foreign immigrants coming in countering those trends right?
The immigration has been a lot of Latinos coming from authoritarian "leftist" regimes (Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua) who lean conservative. I also don't think Miami or Tampa attracted the sort of young educated liberal demos like Atlanta, Research Triangle, or NOVA did, but that's based more on vibes-I don't know the actual data there.
Venezuelans and Nicaraguans backed Democrats until 2020. You could be right about the young educated demos thing. Even I feel that Florida attracted more midwestern WCWs than them.
Puerto Ricans and Haitians also backed till 2020. Haitians may have backed in 2024 too.
Obama’s close wins and the sense that Gore won or should have won it in 2000.
Yes and crashed in Dade due to the same national phenomenon Latino rightward swing in 2020 compared to 2016.
2024 was a complete bloodbath but I was focusing on how it turned red from purple in the first place.