Yeah I don't get the "either or" debate here; to me it's clear Florida has gotten redder for a multitude of reasons; WWC Demosaur areas reddening, RW in-migration, reddening Hispanic cohort etc.
I do think Obama's close wins there masked how generally red Florida has been for the past 40+ years. Clinton didn't even win it in 1992.
Yeah I don't get the "either or" debate here; to me it's clear Florida has gotten redder for a multitude of reasons; WWC Demosaur areas reddening, RW in-migration, reddening Hispanic cohort etc.
I do think Obama's close wins there masked how generally red Florida has been for the past 40+ years. Clinton didn't even win it in 1992.
I also see a problem in the Palm Beach/Broward county area. We used to get a lot of retirees from the Northeast who tended to vote heavily Democratic while the current group of retirees are not as heavily from the Northeast and are much more conservative. I am also curious at how the ongoing insurance issues with insurance prices rising by huge amounts due to rising flood risks from climate change. I suspect that more educated and more liberal voters will be very wary to move to an area with such a problem while less educated voters and climate change deniers (think low education/high income retirees) will not be deterred by such a problem.
Anecdotally, it seems like a lot of non-MAGA people I know are now avoiding Florida, when it was a popular vacation/retirement destination for people of all political stripes as recently as just before the pandemic.
I also think there's a growing awareness that Florida (especially South Florida) weather is...not for everyone.
Florida getting more Conservative Silent Generation retirees from the Midwest compared to the more liberal Greatest Generation Northeast retirees who preceded them didn't start during Covid.
I see. But then you also had the reverse great migration, young job seekers from other states and foreign immigrants coming in countering those trends right?
The immigration has been a lot of Latinos coming from authoritarian "leftist" regimes (Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua) who lean conservative. I also don't think Miami or Tampa attracted the sort of young educated liberal demos like Atlanta, Research Triangle, or NOVA did, but that's based more on vibes-I don't know the actual data there.
Venezuelans and Nicaraguans backed Democrats until 2020. You could be right about the young educated demos thing. Even I feel that Florida attracted more midwestern WCWs than them.
Yeah I don't get the "either or" debate here; to me it's clear Florida has gotten redder for a multitude of reasons; WWC Demosaur areas reddening, RW in-migration, reddening Hispanic cohort etc.
I do think Obama's close wins there masked how generally red Florida has been for the past 40+ years. Clinton didn't even win it in 1992.
I also see a problem in the Palm Beach/Broward county area. We used to get a lot of retirees from the Northeast who tended to vote heavily Democratic while the current group of retirees are not as heavily from the Northeast and are much more conservative. I am also curious at how the ongoing insurance issues with insurance prices rising by huge amounts due to rising flood risks from climate change. I suspect that more educated and more liberal voters will be very wary to move to an area with such a problem while less educated voters and climate change deniers (think low education/high income retirees) will not be deterred by such a problem.
Anecdotally, it seems like a lot of non-MAGA people I know are now avoiding Florida, when it was a popular vacation/retirement destination for people of all political stripes as recently as just before the pandemic.
I also think there's a growing awareness that Florida (especially South Florida) weather is...not for everyone.
RW in migration would not be relevant for 2020.
Florida getting more Conservative Silent Generation retirees from the Midwest compared to the more liberal Greatest Generation Northeast retirees who preceded them didn't start during Covid.
I see. But then you also had the reverse great migration, young job seekers from other states and foreign immigrants coming in countering those trends right?
The immigration has been a lot of Latinos coming from authoritarian "leftist" regimes (Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua) who lean conservative. I also don't think Miami or Tampa attracted the sort of young educated liberal demos like Atlanta, Research Triangle, or NOVA did, but that's based more on vibes-I don't know the actual data there.
Venezuelans and Nicaraguans backed Democrats until 2020. You could be right about the young educated demos thing. Even I feel that Florida attracted more midwestern WCWs than them.
Puerto Ricans and Haitians also backed till 2020. Haitians may have backed in 2024 too.
ObamaтАЩs close wins and the sense that Gore won or should have won it in 2000.