Leading Off
Tarrant County, TX Judge
Texas Democrats are campaigning vigorously to end the GOP’s four-decade reign in populous Tarrant County, a major bellwether that could usher in other Democratic victories across the state.
“We are sounding the alarm. Don’t let it happen,” County Judge Tim O’Hare, a Republican serving his first term as county leader, said in an address earlier this month to the conservative True Texas Project. He faces a challenge from Democrat Alisa Simmons, a member of the county commission.
O’Hare, whose office is an executive rather than judicial position—the equivalent of county executive in other states—warned during his speech that his race could have huge implications across the state. He predicted that, if Democrats take control of his county, they could become the dominant force in the Lone Star State.
“This county is different, but we are in a battle this time,” said the incumbent. “If we go into this the same way we do every election, we very well may not come out on top.”
Tarrant County, the third-most populous in the state, is indeed an outlier in one crucial way: It’s the only one of the state’s five largest counties to be led by a Republican. And from that perch, O’Hare has used his powers to push conservative priorities.
Most recently, he and two fellow Republicans on the five-member county commission passed a plan earlier this month to reduce the number of polling sites on Election Day to 224—a major decrease from the 316 used in the previous midterm year.
Proponents have argued the move would save the county money, though O’Hare didn’t shy away from the partisan implications in his speech to the True Texas Project. He claimed that the 2022 plan favored the Democratic-leaning southwestern part of the county by establishing more polling sites there than in conservative neighborhoods in the northeast.
Simmons, who joined her Democratic colleague Roderick Miles in opposition to the plan, has framed O’Hare’s effort as a deliberate effort to suppress Black and Latino voters. Critics have also emphasized that the University of Texas at Arlington will no longer have its own polling place, with the nearest one now a mile away.
At an event at the school with Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico last month, Simmons charged, “The communities where people are more likely to have fewer transportation options, less flexibility in their workday, and they are experiencing some of the largest reductions in vote centers.”
Simmons herself was the target last year when O’Hare and his allies passed a new gerrymander that made her district considerably more Republican ahead of the 2026 elections, when she’d have been up for a new term.
“This is about Republican versus Democrat, period,” the county judge told WFAA shortly before the GOP settled on a new map. But Simmons, who is Black, argued there was more than just pure partisanship at work, saying, “What we’re hearing from the experts so far is that these maps are a classic example of intentional racial discrimination.”
Instead of seeking reelection, Simmons announced in December she would challenge O’Hare directly. She would be the first Black woman elected to lead the county, as well as the first Democrat to hold the post since Mike Moncrief left office in 1986.
And as worried as Republicans are about November’s elections, Texas Democrats are excited about their prospects in state and local races.
“The whole world is watching Tarrant County,” Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee to take on Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, told supporters in Fort Worth last month.
A decade ago, Tarrant was one of numerous suburban counties in Texas and across the country where Republicans like Abbott could count on rolling up huge majorities. Local Democrats, though, achieved a huge breakthrough in 2020 when Joe Biden edged out Donald Trump 49.3 to 49.1, a tight win that nonetheless made him the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry the county since Texas native Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Biden’s victory, though, didn’t presage future gains for Democrats—at least, not immediately.
O’Hare, who earned a cross-party endorsement from Moncrief in 2022, won his first term as county judge 53-47. Fellow Republican Phil Sorrells also kept the district attorney’s office in GOP hands, defeating Democrat Tiffany Burks by that same margin. Abbott, for his part, carried the county 51-47, though that was a notable decline from his 54-44 showing in 2018.
Democrats were in for more disappointment in 2024 when Trump outpaced Kamala Harris 52-47 as far-right Sheriff Bill Waybourn won reelection by an even larger spread. Democrat Colin Allred, however, still edged out GOP Sen. Ted Cruz 48.9 to 48.7 in the county even as he was losing statewide, a result that gave Democrats reason to be optimistic for 2026.
Those hopes were unexpectedly rewarded this year—well before the November midterms. Democrat Taylor Rehmet scored a landslide 57-43 victory against Republican Leigh Wambsganss in January’s special election for the 9th State Senate District, a Fort Worth-based seat Trump had carried 58-41.
Both parties are paying close attention to the Nov. 3 rematch between Rehmet and Wambsganss, as well as the second bout between Sorrells and Burks. (See our Prosecutors & County Sheriffs section below for more on that race.) The contest for county judge is also generating notice well outside Tarrant County.
“The left wants to flip this county,” Cruz said this month at a rally for O’Hare. “We can’t let that happen. The men and women who will save Tarrant County are the men and women who will save Texas.”
Simmons has argued that Republicans are trying to make it tougher to vote in Tarrant County because they know what happens there will resonate across the state. She took to social media this month to predict that a victory for her would also sweep in fellow Democrats like Talarico, Hinojosa, and Vikki Goodwin, who is challenging Republican Dan Patrick for the powerful post of lieutenant governor.
“Republicans are closing 92 polling places in Tarrant County right before November,” Simmons tweeted. “They know my race for County Judge is ground zero for flipping TX blue.”
Redistricting Roundup
MO Redistricting
The Supreme Court swatted down a last-ditch attempt by an appellate court to reinstate Missouri’s Republican-drawn congressional gerrymander on Friday evening, ensuring once and for all that the state will use its previous map in the November midterms.
“The District Court and Court of Appeals should not enjoin or otherwise prohibit the use of the 2022 map in the 2026 congressional election in Missouri,” the justices wrote in an unsigned order that came four days after a federal appeals court ordered Missouri to use the map the GOP drew up last year. “And the District Court and Court of Appeals should not order or otherwise require Missouri to use the 2025 map in the 2026 congressional election in Missouri.”
As a result, Missouri will continue moving forward with elections under the map it used in 2022 and 2024, thwarting the GOP’s attempts to dismantle the district held by longtime Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. Voters will also have the chance to permanently repeal the Republican gerrymander thanks to a referendum that will appear on the November ballot.
Prosecutors & Sheriffs
Bolts has released a guide to 25 crucial elections for prosecutor and sheriff across the country, including contests pitting Democrats and Republicans against one another as well as races featuring two Democrats.
One key battle to watch is the election for district attorney of Tarrant County, Texas, the location of our lead item. Four years ago, Republican incumbent Phil Sorrells scored a 53-47 win over Democrat Tiffany Burks, a former prosecutor, and Burks is back for a rematch.
Sorrells drew attention in 2024 when he announced he would try to reverse a ruling overturning the illegal voting conviction of Crystal Mason, a former inmate who had cast a ballot in 2016 under the incorrect belief she was eligible. Sorrells said at the time, “I want would-be illegal voters to know that we’re watching.”
The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals on Thursday, though, upheld an earlier decision overturning Mason’s conviction, a decision she celebrated by saying, “I am so happy my nightmare is over and I can move on.” Sorrells responded to his loss in court by declaring, “Illegal voting remains a crime in Texas.”
Last month, Burks told journalist Roland Martin that her “first item on business” in office would be to end the prosecution against Mason. She argued that Sorrell’s actions were about far more than one defendant, saying, “We are talking about a county where they are doing everything that they can to suppress the vote.”
Meanwhile, in Douglas County, Nebraska, a pair of Republicans face competitive reelection campaigns against Democratic challengers.
County Attorney Don Kleine, a former Democrat who joined the GOP in 2020 after his old party accused him of having “perpetuated white supremacy,” faces Omaha prosecutor Makayla Danner. Republican Sheriff Aaron Hanson, likewise, is trying to fend off Mark Martinez, who served as Nebraska’s former U.S. marshal after a career in the Omaha Police Department, in the state’s largest and bluest county.
There’s a different kind of election underway in Minneapolis to succeed Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty, who is not seeking a second term as Minnesota’s most populous jurisdiction. The officially nonpartisan race is a choice between state Rep. Cedrick Frazier and former acting U.S. Attorney Anders Folk, both of whom are Democrats.
Frazier, who led 36-23 in last month’s primary, told supporters that evening the result showed that “[t]he progressive movement in Minnesota is stronger than ever.”
But he’s still sought to put some distance between himself and Moriarty, who was elected as a criminal justice reformer in 2022. Frazier, who co-chaired Moriarty’s transition team, told the Minnesota Star Tribune last year that, while he shares an outlook with the incumbent, he would not be “Mary 2.0.”
Folk, by contrast, is appealing to voters frustrated with the incumbent, whose critics accuse her of being too lenient in prosecuting violent offenders.
“This race is about the future of public safety and justice in Hennepin County,” he tweeted Friday. “If you think the last four years under Mary Moriarty have been a success I’m not your candidate.”
Bolts has more on these races, as well as many others to watch from coast to coast, in its detailed guide.
Other Races
NJ-LG
New Jersey Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell resigned on Friday, one day after Gov. Mikie Sherrill and other fellow Democrats called for him to step down as a result of an investigation finding he’d sexually harassed staffers and violated ethics rules. Caldwell, who also resigned from his appointed position as secretary of state, has denied the allegations.
Sherrill, who picked Caldwell as her running mate last year and made him the state’s chief elections official following their victory, said Friday she would select a new lieutenant governor within 45 days. Sherrill also chose state Comptroller Shirley Emehelu to serve as acting secretary of state.
Poll Pile
All polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
MI-Sen: Torchlight Strategies for Common Sense for America:
Mike Rogers (R): 44, Abdul El-Sayed (D): 43.
Common Sense for America is a PAC affiliated with Republican Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana.
NC-Sen: Opinion Diagnostics for Common Cause North Carolina:
Roy Cooper (D): 52, Michael Whatley (R): 44.
Common Cause is a nonpartisan organization that has frequently condemned the actions of North Carolina Republicans.
NE-Sen: GBAO for Working Class Majority PAC (pro-Dan Osborn):
Osborn (I): 47, Pete Ricketts (R-inc): 46.
Unreleased July poll: 47-47 tie.
TX-Sen: Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research:
James Talarico (D): 49, Ken Paxton (R): 44, Ted Brown (L): 3.
Aug: 48-42 Talarico.
ME-Gov: Siena University/The New York Times for the Portland Press Herald/Maine Trust for Local News:
Hannah Pingree (D): 47, Bobby Charles (R): 34, Rick Bennett (I): 8.
Pingree (D): 53, Charles (R): 39.
MI-Gov: Siena/NYT:
Jocelyn Benson (D): 48, John James (R): 43.
MI-Gov: Torchlight:
Benson (D): 42, James (R): 41.
NH-Gov: Siena/NYT:
Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 52, Cinde Warmington (D): 41.
TX-Gov: Slingshot:
Greg Abbott (R-inc): 50, Gina Hinojosa (D): 46, Pat Dixon (L): 2.
Aug.: 49-42 Abbott.
MN-02: Impact Research for Matt Little:
Little (D): 52, Eric Pratt (R): 40.
MO-02: Remington Research:
Ann Wagner (R-inc): 43, Fred Wellman (D) 42.
Remington, a Republican firm, did not say if this poll was done on behalf of a client.
TX-AG: Slingshot:
Mayes Middleton (R): 46, Nathan Johnson (D): 43, Tom Oxford (L): 2.
Aug.: 44-41 Middleton.
TX Railroad Commissioner: Slingshot:
Bo French (R): 45, Jon Rosenthal (D): 44, Arthur DiBianca (L): 2.
Aug.: 45-41 French.
TX-LG: Slingshot:
Dan Patrick (R-inc): 47, Vikki Goodwin (D): 44, Anthony Cristo (L): 2, Kevin McCormick (G): 1.
Aug.: 47-41 Patrick.
TX Comptroller: Slingshot:
Don Huffines (R-inc): 46, Sarah Eckhardt (D): 43, V. Alonzo Echevarria-Garza (L): 1, Shehla Faizi (G): 1.
Aug.: 43-41 Huffines.
TX Agriculture Commissioner: Slingshot:
Nate Sheets (R): 46, Clayton Tucker (D): 44, Austin Kelly (L): 2.
Aug.: 44-40 Sheets.
TX Land Commissioner: Slingshot:
Dawn Buckingham (R-inc): 46, Benjamin Flores (D): 43, Neil Snider (L): 1.
Aug.: 44-40 Buckingham.
Since Dems figure to be heavily outspent on ads in the final stretch, might it make sense to allocate some of their own ad budgets to messages that remind voters that the billionaire class is paying for avalanche of Republican ads?
Opinion post incoming, so bear with me.
The whole reform DA vs. tough on crime DA debate is one of the saddest political stories I know. I was a reform DA supporter and still am, and it is depressing how propaganda won this fight. Most of the arguments I’ve heard against the reform DAs revolve around a mix of anecdotal evidence (“X happened to me! Proof that crime went up!”) and anti-homeless rhetoric often mixed with downright nauseating bigotry against the disabled, as if all homeless people were disabled. (I have legit seen calls to revive institutions. It’s awful reading this shit as an autistic person.)
Now, I am open to altering my position if there are legit statistics and evidence proving crime increases in certain cases. And I freely admit as a resident of the NYC area that I may be biased due to phenomena like homeless people screaming at no one being a common sight. But as of now, I feel this whole debate is just a sad example of how this country mistreats its poor and disabled.