It's interesting how varied the role of County Sheriff is from State to State, or even sometimes within a State. They range from being the chief law enforcement officer in their jurisdiction, to having only minimal or ceremonial duties. Only Alaska and Connecticut lack the office altogether. The Northeast, broadly speaking, is where the office is the weakest, often limited to transporting prisoners and court ceremony. The South is where they're most likely to have a law enforcement role that outranks local police in some way. In the West they often have law enforcement responsibility for unincorporated areas, but not for cities.
Since Dems figure to be heavily outspent on ads in the final stretch, might it make sense to allocate some of their own ad budgets to messages that remind voters that the billionaire class is paying for avalanche of Republican ads?
This worked well when Musk was still spending heavily while taking his chainsaw to the federal workforce. (Literally claiming that the future of Western Civilization depended on a judicial election in Wisconsin.) The connections are a little less obvious now, which is why focusing on it is more important. "You're paying more for everything to fund billionaires. They're paying for these attack ads to keep their perks "
Not really. At the end of the article, Fetterman made a slip of the tongue when he says, "I'm a life-long Republican," but earlier mentioned "I'm not a Republican."
He also says:
“If the Democratic Party votes me out or expels me, they’re always entitled to do that,” he continued.
Fetterman may be a loose cannon but I just don't see him joining the GOP. He's also been voting more with Democrats than against them compared to what a typical GOP Senator would.
"Since 2025, Fetterman has been Democrats’ least reliable vote in the Senate, spurring speculation that he would leave the party. Despite Republicans’ attempts to coax him to their side, Fetterman has repeatedly reaffirmed his position as a lifelong Democrat.
“I’m not a Republican,” he said.
Later in the evening, an audience question asked why Fetterman wouldn’t become an independent.
“Because I’m a lifelong Republican,” he said, raising his hand to his head, embarrassed after he realized the slip. “I guarantee you that will break through. That will get clipped.”
The whole reform DA vs. tough on crime DA debate is one of the saddest political stories I know. I was a reform DA supporter and still am, and it is depressing how propaganda won this fight. Most of the arguments I’ve heard against the reform DAs revolve around a mix of anecdotal evidence (“X happened to me! Proof that crime went up!”) and anti-homeless rhetoric often mixed with downright nauseating bigotry against the disabled, as if all homeless people were disabled. (I have legit seen calls to revive institutions. It’s awful reading this shit as an autistic person.)
Now, I am open to altering my position if there are legit statistics and evidence proving crime increases in certain cases. And I freely admit as a resident of the NYC area that I may be biased due to phenomena like homeless people screaming at no one being a common sight. But as of now, I feel this whole debate is just a sad example of how this country mistreats its poor and disabled.
Unfortunately (in my opinion), bail reform in NY state has not been helpful. Yes, people shouldn't have to wait years in jail before trial because they can't afford bail. However, too many violent offenders are being let out when arrested for things that don't meet remand requirements. There's been a huge surge in car theft/break-ins since people aren't worried about being stuck in jail. Just my two cents though.
Out of curiosity, what solution would you propose as an alternative for the problem of people being trapped in jail due to being unable to afford bail? I am interested if there is an alternative solution that might work.
I think people credibly accused of violent crimes or who are longtime repeat offenders for thievery should not be released on their own recognizance, or in some limited cases of particularly violent alleged offenders, at all, but in cases of bail, what the alleged offender can afford ought to be taken into account. I think fines should also be assessed on that basis, so that they really bite for rich people. But the other important factor is that way more judges and public defenders need to be hired to ensure the speedy justice people in pretrial detention are not getting. And I think people who've been detained and subsequently found not guilty should be entitled to heavy compensation for their unjust loss of freedom.
COVID caused a significant distortion in crime statistics, especially for a YoY, comparative look. Overall, crime is down under Mamdani, if you take their statements at face value.
However, from what I see, thefts and auto thefts are certainly up since COVID, and definitely greatly up since 2008. Arguing whether they've risen under Mamdani, who is relatively fresh, which policies do or do not contribute and since only numbers up to 2025 are available is a different task.
"While overall vehicle thefts nationally saw a significant decrease of 17% from 2023 to 2024, dropping below the one million mark for the first time since 2021 (National Insurance Crime Bureau - NICB), New York State has still experienced an increase in recent years, with certain Kia and Hyundai models being particularly targeted due to viral social media videos demonstrating how to steal them."
I would love to see 2026 stats, it will be a 5th year post pandemic to help support or reject the trend.
I'm in New York state, not NYC. Not blaming Mamdani for anything (just thought I should clarify). Was talking about NYS bail reform the past few years.
P.s. thank you for the article. This is exactly what I was talking about. Still figuring out the comment system here and how to reply properly. Hope you have a great day :)
I'm pretty sure that bail reform has nothing/little to do with that. Bail reform just happened to have spectacularly bad timing and occurred just as there was an increase in crime and an increase in lenient judges, so it gets blamed for things that it had nothing to do with.
Unfortunately the Electorate doesn't want to reckon with the fact that THEIR decisions over the last 40 years are what brought us to this point, starting with Reagan and his landslide victories.
I'm gonna kudos myself cause I nailed 2 of the 3 districts Patrick ended up mentioning: SD-5 and SD-2. I mentioned on Friday, SD-5 covers most of Williamson County (north of Austin) where Talarico is likely counting on a good turnout. SD-2 covers some of Dallas County.
Apparently Patrick mentioned SD-11, which was not on my radar because that district and area has been trending away from us. It covers southeast Harris County, Galveston County, and most of Brazoria County. The seat is open because the incumbent is running for attorney general.
And if you're interested, they also do a breakdown of the legislative races and where they think they are in terms of tossup, likely Dem, likely Rep, etc.: https://capitolinside.com/ranks26-general.html
Two Iowa polls this weekend from GOP pollsters. Is this really happening? Almost too good to be true. I think Turek would be outright favored against Ernst.
People might stumble over the similarity between the names of Libertarian Iowa US Senate candidate Thomas Laehn's name and Republican gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn.
Lots of interesting candidates further downballot in Iowa, as well as chance to flip 3 US House seats.
Some strong candidates further downballot, overlapping TX-S-12:
Nydia Cardenas for Tarrant Commission 4
Katie O'Brien Duzan TX-H-94 and
Beth Llwellyn McLaughlin TX-H-97.
In southeastern Tarrant County, not overlapping Rehmet's district,
Ebony Turner for TX-H-96 and
Jared Williams for Tarrant Commission 2
Across these 3 state house districts:
Slightly more votes in the Democratic than in the R primaries.
Last fundraising report thru 6/30 Ds average 77k, Rs 444k (only 1 incumbent)
Among the endorsements reported by Blue Voter Guide:
Texas Working Families Party: Cardenas and Williams
Collective PAC ("Working to fix the challenge of under-representation of the Black community in elected seats of power throughout our nation"): Williams
TN-93 State House race has NO candidates on the ballot, winner will be a write-in.
The incumbent Democrat was the only person to run, but he only submitted 24 valid signatures (he needed 25 to get on the ballot), and then he died. From @ballot_access:
The good news is this district is Harris +53, so any degree of organized write-in campaign by a Democrat should be enough to keep Republicans from winning. The appointed incumbent is running as one, so everything should be fine.
OK debate started. Lawler is attacking Gov. Hochul for shutting down Indian Point, a local nuclear power plant that had a controversial shutdown. He says he’d reopen it. If I recall correctly, it was partially shut down due to safety concerns. Great start Lawler!
(Oh, and for those curious News 12 Westchester is home to the debate.)
Lawler was going on about taxes before being cut off.
Now they’re discussing our high NY electricity bills. Cait Conley is responding to a question on the matter. She just called out Lawler for his lobbying work for utility companies, and is pushing for clean energy.
It's interesting how varied the role of County Sheriff is from State to State, or even sometimes within a State. They range from being the chief law enforcement officer in their jurisdiction, to having only minimal or ceremonial duties. Only Alaska and Connecticut lack the office altogether. The Northeast, broadly speaking, is where the office is the weakest, often limited to transporting prisoners and court ceremony. The South is where they're most likely to have a law enforcement role that outranks local police in some way. In the West they often have law enforcement responsibility for unincorporated areas, but not for cities.
Since Dems figure to be heavily outspent on ads in the final stretch, might it make sense to allocate some of their own ad budgets to messages that remind voters that the billionaire class is paying for avalanche of Republican ads?
This worked well when Musk was still spending heavily while taking his chainsaw to the federal workforce. (Literally claiming that the future of Western Civilization depended on a judicial election in Wisconsin.) The connections are a little less obvious now, which is why focusing on it is more important. "You're paying more for everything to fund billionaires. They're paying for these attack ads to keep their perks "
PA-SEN 2028:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/john-fetterman-republican-midterms_n_6ab9e637e4b0d1543f54b886?6m
Ugh. John Fetterman is vaguely threatening a party switch.
Not surprising but disappointing.
Just a few weeks after he said he wouldn't. Another stable genius.
I think the likelihood of him switching parties goes way up if there are only 51 Dems and one of them is Abdul El-Sayed.
Not really. At the end of the article, Fetterman made a slip of the tongue when he says, "I'm a life-long Republican," but earlier mentioned "I'm not a Republican."
He also says:
“If the Democratic Party votes me out or expels me, they’re always entitled to do that,” he continued.
Fetterman may be a loose cannon but I just don't see him joining the GOP. He's also been voting more with Democrats than against them compared to what a typical GOP Senator would.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/john-fetterman-republican-midterms_n_6ab9e637e4b0d1543f54b886?6m
"Since 2025, Fetterman has been Democrats’ least reliable vote in the Senate, spurring speculation that he would leave the party. Despite Republicans’ attempts to coax him to their side, Fetterman has repeatedly reaffirmed his position as a lifelong Democrat.
“I’m not a Republican,” he said.
Later in the evening, an audience question asked why Fetterman wouldn’t become an independent.
“Because I’m a lifelong Republican,” he said, raising his hand to his head, embarrassed after he realized the slip. “I guarantee you that will break through. That will get clipped.”
Opinion post incoming, so bear with me.
The whole reform DA vs. tough on crime DA debate is one of the saddest political stories I know. I was a reform DA supporter and still am, and it is depressing how propaganda won this fight. Most of the arguments I’ve heard against the reform DAs revolve around a mix of anecdotal evidence (“X happened to me! Proof that crime went up!”) and anti-homeless rhetoric often mixed with downright nauseating bigotry against the disabled, as if all homeless people were disabled. (I have legit seen calls to revive institutions. It’s awful reading this shit as an autistic person.)
Now, I am open to altering my position if there are legit statistics and evidence proving crime increases in certain cases. And I freely admit as a resident of the NYC area that I may be biased due to phenomena like homeless people screaming at no one being a common sight. But as of now, I feel this whole debate is just a sad example of how this country mistreats its poor and disabled.
Unfortunately (in my opinion), bail reform in NY state has not been helpful. Yes, people shouldn't have to wait years in jail before trial because they can't afford bail. However, too many violent offenders are being let out when arrested for things that don't meet remand requirements. There's been a huge surge in car theft/break-ins since people aren't worried about being stuck in jail. Just my two cents though.
Out of curiosity, what solution would you propose as an alternative for the problem of people being trapped in jail due to being unable to afford bail? I am interested if there is an alternative solution that might work.
I think people credibly accused of violent crimes or who are longtime repeat offenders for thievery should not be released on their own recognizance, or in some limited cases of particularly violent alleged offenders, at all, but in cases of bail, what the alleged offender can afford ought to be taken into account. I think fines should also be assessed on that basis, so that they really bite for rich people. But the other important factor is that way more judges and public defenders need to be hired to ensure the speedy justice people in pretrial detention are not getting. And I think people who've been detained and subsequently found not guilty should be entitled to heavy compensation for their unjust loss of freedom.
Can you point to statistics showing an increase rather than a decrease in car thefts in New York since the end of the pandemic?
https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-New-York-New-York.html
COVID caused a significant distortion in crime statistics, especially for a YoY, comparative look. Overall, crime is down under Mamdani, if you take their statements at face value.
However, from what I see, thefts and auto thefts are certainly up since COVID, and definitely greatly up since 2008. Arguing whether they've risen under Mamdani, who is relatively fresh, which policies do or do not contribute and since only numbers up to 2025 are available is a different task.
https://westerncentralnyaaa.com/blog/vehicle-thefts-rise-new-york-state
"While overall vehicle thefts nationally saw a significant decrease of 17% from 2023 to 2024, dropping below the one million mark for the first time since 2021 (National Insurance Crime Bureau - NICB), New York State has still experienced an increase in recent years, with certain Kia and Hyundai models being particularly targeted due to viral social media videos demonstrating how to steal them."
I would love to see 2026 stats, it will be a 5th year post pandemic to help support or reject the trend.
Thanks. The pandemic didn't end in 2021. I'd say 2023.
I'm in New York state, not NYC. Not blaming Mamdani for anything (just thought I should clarify). Was talking about NYS bail reform the past few years.
P.s. thank you for the article. This is exactly what I was talking about. Still figuring out the comment system here and how to reply properly. Hope you have a great day :)
I'm pretty sure that bail reform has nothing/little to do with that. Bail reform just happened to have spectacularly bad timing and occurred just as there was an increase in crime and an increase in lenient judges, so it gets blamed for things that it had nothing to do with.
Unfortunately the Electorate doesn't want to reckon with the fact that THEIR decisions over the last 40 years are what brought us to this point, starting with Reagan and his landslide victories.
Americans are no good at blaming themselves and not very rational voters, in general. Not that people elsewhere are always so logical, either.
People always think crime is out of control even though it is down significantly since the 90's.
TX-Lege: So on Friday I posted a link to a story about Lite Gov. Dan Patrick telling some supporters that some of the Republican state senators were in trouble according to polling (https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-the-site-of-2018s/comment/345713592). The original article was behind a paywall, but a little more digging and I found someone who wrote about it from Capitol Inside: https://capitolinside.com/wave924x.html
I'm gonna kudos myself cause I nailed 2 of the 3 districts Patrick ended up mentioning: SD-5 and SD-2. I mentioned on Friday, SD-5 covers most of Williamson County (north of Austin) where Talarico is likely counting on a good turnout. SD-2 covers some of Dallas County.
Apparently Patrick mentioned SD-11, which was not on my radar because that district and area has been trending away from us. It covers southeast Harris County, Galveston County, and most of Brazoria County. The seat is open because the incumbent is running for attorney general.
And if you're interested, they also do a breakdown of the legislative races and where they think they are in terms of tossup, likely Dem, likely Rep, etc.: https://capitolinside.com/ranks26-general.html
Two Iowa polls this weekend from GOP pollsters. Is this really happening? Almost too good to be true. I think Turek would be outright favored against Ernst.
——
Big Data Poll | 9/25 LV
🟦Josh Turek 46.5%
🟥Ashley Hinson 42.2%
🟨Thomas Laehn 4.6%
——
Insider Advantage polls | 9/22-9/23 LV
🟦Josh Turek 47.4%
🟥Ashley Hinson 45.7%
🟨Thomas Laehn 1.6%
People might stumble over the similarity between the names of Libertarian Iowa US Senate candidate Thomas Laehn's name and Republican gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn.
Lots of interesting candidates further downballot in Iowa, as well as chance to flip 3 US House seats.
No surprise! Over a month ago I said Turek would win! It is in the stars!!
Excellent as always!
Great to see your attention to Tarrant County:
Alisa Simmons for County Judge [Exec]
Tiffany Burks for Tarrant DA
Taylor Rehmet for TX-Senate-12.
Some strong candidates further downballot, overlapping TX-S-12:
Nydia Cardenas for Tarrant Commission 4
Katie O'Brien Duzan TX-H-94 and
Beth Llwellyn McLaughlin TX-H-97.
In southeastern Tarrant County, not overlapping Rehmet's district,
Ebony Turner for TX-H-96 and
Jared Williams for Tarrant Commission 2
Across these 3 state house districts:
Slightly more votes in the Democratic than in the R primaries.
Last fundraising report thru 6/30 Ds average 77k, Rs 444k (only 1 incumbent)
Among the endorsements reported by Blue Voter Guide:
Texas Working Families Party: Cardenas and Williams
Collective PAC ("Working to fix the challenge of under-representation of the Black community in elected seats of power throughout our nation"): Williams
Climate Cabinet PAC: O'Brien Duzan and Turner
O'Brien Duzan: Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), AFL-CIO Texas, Everytown for Gun Safety, Planned Parenthood Texas Votes
National Democratic Redistricting Committee: McLaughlin
TN-93 State House race has NO candidates on the ballot, winner will be a write-in.
The incumbent Democrat was the only person to run, but he only submitted 24 valid signatures (he needed 25 to get on the ballot), and then he died. From @ballot_access:
https://x.com/Mill226/status/2104601650346463671
Whoops. They should write in Danny DeVito or something.
Taylor Swift is likely still registered to vote in Tennessee. Do you have to live in the district or just the state to be an eligible candidate?
State. She would be great. Probably not her game plan, though.
I'm just saying the good people of the Memphis area could do the most hilarious thing...
The good news is this district is Harris +53, so any degree of organized write-in campaign by a Democrat should be enough to keep Republicans from winning. The appointed incumbent is running as one, so everything should be fine.
Florida. Change Research for a conservative group:
Jolly 48-46
Moody 48-47
https://changeresearch.com/research/2026/2026-09-28-florida-aapor-methodology-statement
NJ 7 had a debate last night any information/polls on how it went?
NY-17 is having a debate tonight. I’ll try to remember to update you guys on how it’s going, not unlike what I did for the primary debate.
OK debate started. Lawler is attacking Gov. Hochul for shutting down Indian Point, a local nuclear power plant that had a controversial shutdown. He says he’d reopen it. If I recall correctly, it was partially shut down due to safety concerns. Great start Lawler!
(Oh, and for those curious News 12 Westchester is home to the debate.)
Lawler was going on about taxes before being cut off.
Now they’re discussing our high NY electricity bills. Cait Conley is responding to a question on the matter. She just called out Lawler for his lobbying work for utility companies, and is pushing for clean energy.
Lawler is claiming clean energy is too expensive and going on again about Indian Point.
Unfortunately typing is difficult right now as my cat is trying to stop me from typing.
Lawler is still going on about his nuclear power support. Conley responds with another push for solar, etc., attacks Trump’s bill.
Social Security is up now.