Republican Rep. Scott Perry (right) is receiving help from a group reportedly funded by Donald Trump’s super PAC. (Credit: Scott Perry Facebook)
Leading Off
Senate, PA-10
A new group called No Going Back PAC, which just booked at least $49 million in ad time to boost Republicans across six Senate races and help GOP Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania’s 10th District, is reportedly receiving its funding from Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc.
The New York Times, citing data from AdImpact, reports that the super PAC’s largest investment is in Michigan, where it’s spending close to $15 million to aid Republican Mike Rogers against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
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The group is also engaging in Alaska, Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio; the Times’ Teddy Schleifer has the exact breakdown of each race. It’s not clear, however, how much it plans to spend to help Perry, the only House candidate on this roster, in his rematch against Democrat Janelle Stelson, who came close to defeating him in 2024.
The bookings come just days after MAGA Inc. itself put $10 million into Texas’ Senate contest to aid Republican Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico. The Times says that it’s not clear why the organization decided to fund No Going Back PAC Inc. rather than spend directly in the other races it’s targeting.
It also remains to be seen how much of MAGA Inc.’s $400 million war chest will even be used to help Republican candidates this year.
In April, Axios reported that the behemoth super PAC intended “to begin unloading its massive war chest around Memorial Day,” but the holiday came and went without any major activity. Independence Day also passed without anything new, which led Republicans to wonder whether it would ever get involved.
As the summer wound down, The Atlantic reported that new investments might be forthcoming—though Republicans might not have been thrilled to hear it. According to the magazine, Trump told his inner circle that he wanted his PAC to run ads promoting his record in office rather than focus on downballot candidates. Such an approach, as the story noted, could benefit Democrats, who are eager to ensure voters keep the GOP’s unpopular leader top of mind.
The Washington Post subsequently wrote last week that some unnamed sources close to Trump believe he’ll keep much of MAGA Inc.’s cash for purposes like covering his legal fees and helping his preferred successor win the White House two years from now.
“I’m going to spend whatever amount of money necessary to try and help us,” Trump told reporters Friday of his plans for the midterms. “This is my money that I control.”
But while MAGA Inc. is finally taking action, its procrastination could prove costly.
Candidates and third-party organizations prefer to reserve ad time in the spring so they can lock in cheaper rates before high demand sends prices upward. By waiting as long as it has, MAGA Inc. will now need to pay more to reach the same number of viewers—and the cost will only increase as Election Day draws closer.
Outside groups like Trump’s PAC also have to spend more than candidates, who are legally entitled to cheaper advertising rates, to reach the same number of viewers. Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin noted this week that Senate candidates in Texas currently can pay less than half of what third-party groups must cough up to reach voters, a gulf that will also widen during the stretch run.
The Downballot Podcast
The GOP cuts its first House candidate loose
Election Day is still almost two months off, but Republicans have already begun making once-touted recruits walk the plank. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why the decision by GOP power players to torpedo one of their own candidates in a New York House race that should be competitive is such a grim moment for Republicans. It may be their first act of triage, but it won’t be the last.
The Davids also recap Tuesday’s primaries in New Hampshire, including a Democratic battle in a swingy open seat that, once again, ought to be fiercely contested by Republicans but won’t be. They wrap up with the chaotic situation unfolding in Missouri, where dueling court rulings have ordered election officials to use different congressional maps in November, prompting chaos, confusion, and a massive flurry of legal filings.
Election Recaps
RI-Gov (D & R) (56-42 Harris)
Former CVS executive Helena Foulkes defeated Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee in a 62-38 landslide in Wednesday’s Democratic primary, a win that came four years after McKee narrowly fended off Foulkes in their first bout.
But McKee, whose subsequent term was dominated by the abrupt 2023 closure of the Washington Bridge and other local problems, has now become the state’s first governor to lose reelection since 1994. The last to go down was fellow Democrat Bruce Sundlun, who was likewise ejected by his own party in a primary after a tenure dominated by the state’s economic struggles.
McKee is the first chief executive in any state to lose a primary since 2018. That year, Kansas Republican Jeff Colyer, who had become governor just six months earlier, narrowly lost to Kris Kobach, who in turn lost the general election to Democrat Laura Kelly.
McKee is also the first elected governor to fail to win renomination since 2014, when Hawaii Democrat Neil Abercrombie fell to David Ige in a historic 67-32 blowout.
Foulkes, though, is well-positioned to win the general election in this solidly blue state. A poll from the University of New Hampshire conducted in late August showed her leading Block by a wide 40-19 margin, with Guckian in third place with 15%.
McKee wasn’t the only high-profile Democratic incumbent to lose a primary on Wednesday. Providence Mayor Brett Smiley fell to state Rep. David Morales, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who ran to his left, 53-47. Morales’ victory over Smiley, the first incumbent mayor to lose renomination in the history of Rhode Island’s capital city, sets him up for an easy general election.
Redistricting Roundup
MO Redistricting, MO Ballot
A three-judge panel of the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday afternoon rejected a motion by opponents of Missouri’s new Republican-drawn congressional gerrymander to stay a ruling by a district court judge that forbids any map other than the GOP’s plan from being used in the November midterms.
People Not Politicians, the group behind the referendum seeking to repeal the Republican map, immediately asked the U.S. Supreme Court to grant the stay that the 8th Circuit rejected. That request will be addressed individually by Justice Brett Kavanaugh, unless he chooses to refer the matter to the full court.
A day earlier, Kavanaugh dismissed a Republican request to block last week’s ruling by the Missouri Supreme Court concluding that, because the repeal referendum qualified for the ballot, the new GOP map had never taken legal effect. As a result, the state’s top court directed that this fall’s general elections be held under the map used in 2022 and 2024.
However, shortly after Kavanaugh’s decision, a federal district court granted a different Republican request to enjoin the use of any map except the GOP map, known as HB1. That ruling sparked chaos and confusion, leaving local election administrators unsure of how to proceed, and prompted People Not Politicians to seek a stay.
Kavanaugh instructed Missouri Republicans to respond to the group’s stay request by 10 AM Thursday, less than 24 hours after it was filed. Steven Mazie, a Supreme Court reporter for The Economist, characterized the abbreviated schedule as a “sign they want to foreclose this fuckery ASAP.”
Governors
AZ-Gov, NV-Gov
Two neighboring governors in western swing states—Democrat Katie Hobbs of Arizona and Republican Joe Lombardo of Nevada—both enjoy massive spending advantages over their opponents as they each seek a second term.
Arizona Family wrote Tuesday that Hobbs has spent at least $10 million on TV ads, while her Republican opponent, Rep. Andy Biggs, had yet to take to the airwaves. 12News subsequently reported that the state GOP was launching a $1.75 million TV buy against Hobbs, a three-week ad campaign that still leaves the incumbent with a wide edge.
And the clock is ticking for Republicans to narrow that gap. Early voting begins on Oct. 7, and due to the popularity of mail voting in Arizona, most ballots are cast before Election Day.
Biggs, however, may struggle to convince well-heeled Republicans he’s worth helping before it’s too late. According to an aggregate of surveys compiled by FiftyPlusOne, Hobbs enjoys a 48-39 advantage over Biggs—a dramatically different margin from the Democrat’s first victory in 2022, when she prevailed by less than a point.
Over in neighboring Nevada, though, Republicans are the ones dominating the ad race. The Nevada Independent writes that Lombardo and his backers have spent $36 million as of Friday, while Democrat Aaron Ford and his allies have deployed just under $2 million.
Nevada Democrats are similarly waiting for the Democratic Governors Association to give Ford a much-needed boost, but there’s still no word on when the cavalry might arrive. An unnamed source would only tell the Indy late last month, “When the DGA comes in, and they will, it will be bad news for Joe Lombardo.”
Lombardo holds a modest 49-44 edge in FiftyPlusOne’s polling average, but there’s considerably less data to work with than in Arizona. The most recent surveys were all conducted in July, and all were conducted for partisan clients.
Aaron Ford holds a 31-point lead among Hispanic voters, 51% to 20%, and an 11-point lead among women, 48% to 37%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Lombardo, conversely, has a 13-point lead among white voters, 51% to 38%, and leads men by six, 47% to 41%.”
Trump holds a 37% job approval among Nevada likely voters, while 55% disapprove.
Nevada Governor Emerson:
Ford 44
Lombardo 42
Undecided 11
Aaron Ford holds a 31-point lead among Hispanic voters, 51% to 20%, and an 11-point lead among women, 48% to 37%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Lombardo, conversely, has a 13-point lead among white voters, 51% to 38%, and leads men by six, 47% to 41%.”
Trump holds a 37% job approval among Nevada likely voters, while 55% disapprove.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-poll-ford-and-lombardo/
On the AZ-Gov item it should be Democrat Katie Hobbs or Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, not just Democratic Katie Hobbs.