Aaron Ford holds a 31-point lead among Hispanic voters, 51% to 20%, and an 11-point lead among women, 48% to 37%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Lombardo, conversely, has a 13-point lead among white voters, 51% to 38%, and leads men by six, 47% to 41%.”
Trump holds a 37% job approval among Nevada likely voters, while 55% disapprove.
Lombardo's been trying to make the race a referendum on....Gavin Newsom. Putting aside how one may feel about Newsom, it should be easy for Ford and Co. to remind voters that it wasn't Gavin Newsom who decided to wage everything short of actual warfare against Canada who voted with their wallets and will be skipping Las Vegas for the foreseeable future (maybe forever?) which led to the current mayor of Las Vegas filming a hostage-like video last year begging Canadians to come back.
Outside of the two Republicans in New England, Lombardo's been the swing state Republican most likely to win re-election. But while he's popular and not *as* openly MAGA as other Republicans, he's still no Larry Hogan or Phil Scott, and if the blue wave is big enough, even he won't be able to hold on. He has a firewall, but one that the wave can still spill over.
Hogan more openly rejects MAGA whereas Lombardo tries to keep his distance without fully rejecting it, sort of like Glenn Youngkin. Looking at his actual positions he does seem more moderate than I thought, atleast at a glance, so he might be closer to Hogan politically but I wouldn’t describe him as a Rockefeller Republican.
I think this is an accurate assessment. The key difference, of course, is that his state is far more purple than Hogan's. I'd call this a true toss-up and I really have no idea who will win.
Ahhh. I only know about Duke University and University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. I also don’t live in NC and know far less about it than others do.
Independent candidates, though, are doing pretty interesting things in red states--e.g., Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana. They're sort of Democrats of a different color.
Given the expected drop off in Trump voters as well as new voters entering the electorate, it does suggest they're modeling for an electorate that's more conservative than reality.
Over *no* public dissents, #SCOTUS *stays* the federal district court’s TRO in the Missouri redistricting case, effectively restoring the Missouri Supreme Court ruling from last week (and the 2022 map that it requires the state to use in November).
Fetterman can't be primaried until 2028, but good lord he has to go. I'd like to maybe see Chris Deluzio or Conor Lamb. This far out though, I know its wishcasting.
I doubt he runs. He has been mailing it in at his job for years and I don't think he has raised any money either. He will be the "resident Democrat" on Fox News in 2029.
I'm more concerned about Jessica Tarlov who shows too much free thinking for the Fox News' brass' liking especially if there's a Dem as President after 2028.
AT least with Zell Miller, he had been drifting steadily rightwards since 1994, and he campaigned as a conservative in 2000 and governed as one. I'm dealing with the whiplash of Fetterman being the darling of the Sanders, progressive populist wing of the party in 2016 and 2022, to morphing into this weirdo right-winger who is muscularly embracing every aspect of Trump's agenda that is MOST unpopular with the economic populist political Right that is closest to Fetterman's actual political base, and instead morphing into this nasty, ultra-aggressive neocon staking out a pro israel position that at times is to the Right of Likud itself.
I’m pretty sure the only reason it was thought to be competitive was due to Dan McKee being so hated. As he is no longer the nominee, we shouldn’t have a problem.
Change Research is rated as "C+" with a +2.7 bias towards Dems. Probably bullshit. But interesting that the difference between Nixon and Jolly is that small
“Following the United States Supreme Court’s stay, the only governing court order in effect is from the Missouri Supreme Court. In accordance with that order, my Office is directing local election authorities to use the 2022 congressional map"
The Missouri Supreme Court finds Secretary of State Denny Hoskins was in contempt of its order, but since he has corrected his contemptuous conduct, he has purged himself of contempt. A written order is expected later today.
Nevada Governor Emerson:
Ford 44
Lombardo 42
Undecided 11
Aaron Ford holds a 31-point lead among Hispanic voters, 51% to 20%, and an 11-point lead among women, 48% to 37%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Lombardo, conversely, has a 13-point lead among white voters, 51% to 38%, and leads men by six, 47% to 41%.”
Trump holds a 37% job approval among Nevada likely voters, while 55% disapprove.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-poll-ford-and-lombardo/
Fordmentum!
Lombardo is done. Bye! 💅
Lombardo's been trying to make the race a referendum on....Gavin Newsom. Putting aside how one may feel about Newsom, it should be easy for Ford and Co. to remind voters that it wasn't Gavin Newsom who decided to wage everything short of actual warfare against Canada who voted with their wallets and will be skipping Las Vegas for the foreseeable future (maybe forever?) which led to the current mayor of Las Vegas filming a hostage-like video last year begging Canadians to come back.
Referendum on Newsom?
Lombardo can’t say this while at the same time he as Governor is approving the A’s going to Las Vegas.
Oaklanders are going to see through this crap.
Oaklanders don't get a vote in Nevada, so why does that matter for this election?
No they don’t but the point is, Lombardo is attacking Newsom but taking the A’s at the same time since he’s been Governor.
A’s owner John Fisher and Dave Kaval are the ones responsible for this stupid, idiotic decision. It’s Lombardo who signed off in it.
Although the gubernatorial election is not about the A’s, unseating Lombardo would be great because of approving their move to Las Vegas.
I sympathize with you, but it's worth mentioning that the A's were previously in Kansas City and Philadelphia.
I’d take those cities for the A’s over Las Vegas in a heartbeat. Hell, I’d take Arlington, Charlotte or even Newark. ;)
Outside of the two Republicans in New England, Lombardo's been the swing state Republican most likely to win re-election. But while he's popular and not *as* openly MAGA as other Republicans, he's still no Larry Hogan or Phil Scott, and if the blue wave is big enough, even he won't be able to hold on. He has a firewall, but one that the wave can still spill over.
I'm not that familiar with his politics. How's he more MAGA-adjacent than Hogan?
Hogan more openly rejects MAGA whereas Lombardo tries to keep his distance without fully rejecting it, sort of like Glenn Youngkin. Looking at his actual positions he does seem more moderate than I thought, atleast at a glance, so he might be closer to Hogan politically but I wouldn’t describe him as a Rockefeller Republican.
I think this is an accurate assessment. The key difference, of course, is that his state is far more purple than Hogan's. I'd call this a true toss-up and I really have no idea who will win.
On the AZ-Gov item it should be Democrat Katie Hobbs or Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, not just Democratic Katie Hobbs.
Emerson polling always seems to show an OPPOSITE result of other recent polling so I’m not sure if I should be excited or skeptical ?
At least they aren't herding!
Can anyone from Nevada provide feedback from the “trenches” ???
NC Senate Elon University:
Cooper 49
Whatley 38
Among all poll respondents, 54% disapproved of the job Trump is doing as president
and 31% approved.
https://eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net/eu3/sites/819/2026/09/Elon-University-Poll-NR-9-10-26.pdf
Elon University I’m guessing has no relationship to Elon Musk, right?
Correct. The university was established in 1889.
That’s what I thought.
I never heard of the name Elon besides it being associated with Elon Musk.
It's between Greensboro and Raleigh. I went and had Pho there once on the way to visit family near Rocky Mount.
Ahhh. I only know about Duke University and University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. I also don’t live in NC and know far less about it than others do.
My wife has an Elon sweatshirt and is always mortified when people assume she’s a musk fan!
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings change
AL-02: Likely R —-> Lean R
TX-34: Toss-up —-> Lean D
Maine YouGov (LVs)
Jackson 48-44
Pingree 47-36
Trump approval 40/59
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_me_20260902.pdf
Rick Bennett only at 2%. Interesting.
This definitely feels like an environment less palatable for third parties, for sure. Even in states like Maine.
Independent candidates, though, are doing pretty interesting things in red states--e.g., Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana. They're sort of Democrats of a different color.
Bizarrely, their sample is 48-43 Kamala voters. Harris won Maine 52-45.
5 vs 7 is not statistically significant, I would think?
Falls within the margin of error
Given the expected drop off in Trump voters as well as new voters entering the electorate, it does suggest they're modeling for an electorate that's more conservative than reality.
Again, Jackson and Pingree roughly even, so can't see Dems losing either in this scenario.
Over *no* public dissents, #SCOTUS *stays* the federal district court’s TRO in the Missouri redistricting case, effectively restoring the Missouri Supreme Court ruling from last week (and the 2022 map that it requires the state to use in November).
https://bsky.app/profile/stevevladeck.bsky.social/post/3mv6arrbh722v
Halleluyah. It's rough not to be sure about these decisions in advance.
I'd say this resolves the dispute. But this matter has been harder to kill than Rasputin.
Here's hoping Hoskins gets found to be in contempt by MO Supreme Court. He roundly deserves it for his anti-democratic meddling.
He deserves impeachment, but that's another matter.
Fetterman can't be primaried until 2028, but good lord he has to go. I'd like to maybe see Chris Deluzio or Conor Lamb. This far out though, I know its wishcasting.
My prediction is that either Fetterman doesn't run or he runs as an independent.
I doubt he runs. He has been mailing it in at his job for years and I don't think he has raised any money either. He will be the "resident Democrat" on Fox News in 2029.
What will happen to Harold Ford Jr?
I'm more concerned about Jessica Tarlov who shows too much free thinking for the Fox News' brass' liking especially if there's a Dem as President after 2028.
He will be the guy Fox News brings on as a former “moderate reasonable Democrat” that was kicked out by the woke Communists that took over the party
AT least with Zell Miller, he had been drifting steadily rightwards since 1994, and he campaigned as a conservative in 2000 and governed as one. I'm dealing with the whiplash of Fetterman being the darling of the Sanders, progressive populist wing of the party in 2016 and 2022, to morphing into this weirdo right-winger who is muscularly embracing every aspect of Trump's agenda that is MOST unpopular with the economic populist political Right that is closest to Fetterman's actual political base, and instead morphing into this nasty, ultra-aggressive neocon staking out a pro israel position that at times is to the Right of Likud itself.
RI-Gov: Rumors of this race potentially being competitive should be unfounded. Democrats got 85% of the primary vote, the highest this year.
I’m pretty sure the only reason it was thought to be competitive was due to Dan McKee being so hated. As he is no longer the nominee, we shouldn’t have a problem.
Texas: Fabrizio/Anzalone
Talarico 48-44
Abbott 49-46
https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-survey-texas.doi.10.26419-2fres.01065.028.pdf
Another North Carolina poll. ECU:
Cooper 52-44.
https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-cooper-leads-whatley-by-7-points
I’m interested to see polling in the Wisconsin Governor contest. I haven’t seen much but then again I don’t really pay attention to the local news.
I remember Crowley being up by 4 in one.
Could it be true Fl Gov Jolly by 3 and Nixon Moody tied. https://x.com/NikkiBarnes/status/2098107189558661470?s=20
Change Research is rated as "C+" with a +2.7 bias towards Dems. Probably bullshit. But interesting that the difference between Nixon and Jolly is that small
Q poll generic Ds by 11 https://x.com/QuinnipiacPoll/status/2098110554120261741?s=20
The saga is finally over.
“Following the United States Supreme Court’s stay, the only governing court order in effect is from the Missouri Supreme Court. In accordance with that order, my Office is directing local election authorities to use the 2022 congressional map"
https://x.com/Kacen/status/2098105007992144357?s=20
The Missouri Supreme Court finds Secretary of State Denny Hoskins was in contempt of its order, but since he has corrected his contemptuous conduct, he has purged himself of contempt. A written order is expected later today.