If I'm giving a rating I do so under the assumption that the tilt of the year is unknown beyond the basics. Basics like that parties tend to suffer during midterms when they hold the presidency.
If I'm giving a rating I do so under the assumption that the tilt of the year is unknown beyond the basics. Basics like that parties tend to suffer during midterms when they hold the presidency.
- Maine I'm assuming we will get a top quality candidate; if we do not then it moves towards republicans.
- Alaska I'm assuming we won't get a quality candidate, but open to the possibility that we get surprised again.
- Iowa is in Likely R not because I'm particularly optimistic for it but because the recent special elections have me too uncertain to think it merits the confidence of Safe R. But I think it will be moved over to Safe R as the cycle gets closer to election day next year.
- Ohio I think could move down to Lean R with Brown as our candidate, but I'm not 100% convinced either.
Texas and North Carolina I think stay where they are regardless. There's always an outside chance the cycle goes enough in our favor for us to get a surprise win out of Texas but it's remote. North Carolina keeps coming up just short for us but I think there's enough potential there to merit a tossup/tilt hybrid.
I suspect many will want to move Florida a tier or two towards us, but I've lost all confidence in the state and do not believe it is winnable for us even in a wave year.
IA-SEN - Likely Republican is fine for right now although as of right now I don't see any trajectory that would make it be a Safe Republican.
Just by doing a quick Google Search, I cannot find any polling data that shows anything about a hypothetical matchup between Ernst and another prospective Democratic Senate Candidate. Still very early in the race.
However, we do know that Ernst won re-election by a smaller margin than her original Senate election back in 2014. Any other factors though are contingent on the Democratic Senate Candidate.
That's all reasonable and feeds into my thinking for putting it in Likely instead of Safe at present.
Ultimately I'm skeptical that Iowa comes home enough for us. Ernst seems a bit weaker than neutral for Iowa, but the state has also trended into being a double-digit loss for us. It takes a lot of things going right for us for it to work out. It doesn't take all that many things going wrong for us for the state to go off the table. I think it's more likely than not that it ends up just outside the realm of viability for election day, where Ernst has an unimpressive but undeniable win.
I'd love for the seat to be in play and to move to the lean category over the next 18 months.
Democrats are certainly going to need a robust GOTV and turnout machine in IA if they want to make the IA Senate race closer than expected. Joni Ernst is also not Chuck Grassley who has far more seniority than she does and has been a notoriously difficult incumbent to unseat.
As for the ME Senate Race, as long as the DSCC stays out of involvement of the race in the primary that would be helpful. We donтАЩt want another repeat of 2020 where the DSCC endorsed Sara Gideon early on. Considering the 2020 election results though, I donтАЩt think Susan Collins will win by double digit margins like she used to but if she ends up winning re-election, it wonтАЩt be a surprise.
If I'm giving a rating I do so under the assumption that the tilt of the year is unknown beyond the basics. Basics like that parties tend to suffer during midterms when they hold the presidency.
Safe R: AL, AR, FL, ID, LA, KS, KY, MT, MS, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, WV, WY
Likely R: AK, IA, OH-Special, TX
Tossup/Tilt R: NC, ME
Everything outside of Safe R has asterisks.
- Maine I'm assuming we will get a top quality candidate; if we do not then it moves towards republicans.
- Alaska I'm assuming we won't get a quality candidate, but open to the possibility that we get surprised again.
- Iowa is in Likely R not because I'm particularly optimistic for it but because the recent special elections have me too uncertain to think it merits the confidence of Safe R. But I think it will be moved over to Safe R as the cycle gets closer to election day next year.
- Ohio I think could move down to Lean R with Brown as our candidate, but I'm not 100% convinced either.
Texas and North Carolina I think stay where they are regardless. There's always an outside chance the cycle goes enough in our favor for us to get a surprise win out of Texas but it's remote. North Carolina keeps coming up just short for us but I think there's enough potential there to merit a tossup/tilt hybrid.
I suspect many will want to move Florida a tier or two towards us, but I've lost all confidence in the state and do not believe it is winnable for us even in a wave year.
you have way to many Safe R imo
IA-SEN - Likely Republican is fine for right now although as of right now I don't see any trajectory that would make it be a Safe Republican.
Just by doing a quick Google Search, I cannot find any polling data that shows anything about a hypothetical matchup between Ernst and another prospective Democratic Senate Candidate. Still very early in the race.
However, we do know that Ernst won re-election by a smaller margin than her original Senate election back in 2014. Any other factors though are contingent on the Democratic Senate Candidate.
That's all reasonable and feeds into my thinking for putting it in Likely instead of Safe at present.
Ultimately I'm skeptical that Iowa comes home enough for us. Ernst seems a bit weaker than neutral for Iowa, but the state has also trended into being a double-digit loss for us. It takes a lot of things going right for us for it to work out. It doesn't take all that many things going wrong for us for the state to go off the table. I think it's more likely than not that it ends up just outside the realm of viability for election day, where Ernst has an unimpressive but undeniable win.
I'd love for the seat to be in play and to move to the lean category over the next 18 months.
Democrats are certainly going to need a robust GOTV and turnout machine in IA if they want to make the IA Senate race closer than expected. Joni Ernst is also not Chuck Grassley who has far more seniority than she does and has been a notoriously difficult incumbent to unseat.
As for the ME Senate Race, as long as the DSCC stays out of involvement of the race in the primary that would be helpful. We donтАЩt want another repeat of 2020 where the DSCC endorsed Sara Gideon early on. Considering the 2020 election results though, I donтАЩt think Susan Collins will win by double digit margins like she used to but if she ends up winning re-election, it wonтАЩt be a surprise.