IA-SEN - Likely Republican is fine for right now although as of right now I don't see any trajectory that would make it be a Safe Republican.
Just by doing a quick Google Search, I cannot find any polling data that shows anything about a hypothetical matchup between Ernst and another prospective Democratic Senate Candidate. Still very ear…
IA-SEN - Likely Republican is fine for right now although as of right now I don't see any trajectory that would make it be a Safe Republican.
Just by doing a quick Google Search, I cannot find any polling data that shows anything about a hypothetical matchup between Ernst and another prospective Democratic Senate Candidate. Still very early in the race.
However, we do know that Ernst won re-election by a smaller margin than her original Senate election back in 2014. Any other factors though are contingent on the Democratic Senate Candidate.
That's all reasonable and feeds into my thinking for putting it in Likely instead of Safe at present.
Ultimately I'm skeptical that Iowa comes home enough for us. Ernst seems a bit weaker than neutral for Iowa, but the state has also trended into being a double-digit loss for us. It takes a lot of things going right for us for it to work out. It doesn't take all that many things going wrong for us for the state to go off the table. I think it's more likely than not that it ends up just outside the realm of viability for election day, where Ernst has an unimpressive but undeniable win.
I'd love for the seat to be in play and to move to the lean category over the next 18 months.
Democrats are certainly going to need a robust GOTV and turnout machine in IA if they want to make the IA Senate race closer than expected. Joni Ernst is also not Chuck Grassley who has far more seniority than she does and has been a notoriously difficult incumbent to unseat.
As for the ME Senate Race, as long as the DSCC stays out of involvement of the race in the primary that would be helpful. We don’t want another repeat of 2020 where the DSCC endorsed Sara Gideon early on. Considering the 2020 election results though, I don’t think Susan Collins will win by double digit margins like she used to but if she ends up winning re-election, it won’t be a surprise.
IA-SEN - Likely Republican is fine for right now although as of right now I don't see any trajectory that would make it be a Safe Republican.
Just by doing a quick Google Search, I cannot find any polling data that shows anything about a hypothetical matchup between Ernst and another prospective Democratic Senate Candidate. Still very early in the race.
However, we do know that Ernst won re-election by a smaller margin than her original Senate election back in 2014. Any other factors though are contingent on the Democratic Senate Candidate.
That's all reasonable and feeds into my thinking for putting it in Likely instead of Safe at present.
Ultimately I'm skeptical that Iowa comes home enough for us. Ernst seems a bit weaker than neutral for Iowa, but the state has also trended into being a double-digit loss for us. It takes a lot of things going right for us for it to work out. It doesn't take all that many things going wrong for us for the state to go off the table. I think it's more likely than not that it ends up just outside the realm of viability for election day, where Ernst has an unimpressive but undeniable win.
I'd love for the seat to be in play and to move to the lean category over the next 18 months.
Democrats are certainly going to need a robust GOTV and turnout machine in IA if they want to make the IA Senate race closer than expected. Joni Ernst is also not Chuck Grassley who has far more seniority than she does and has been a notoriously difficult incumbent to unseat.
As for the ME Senate Race, as long as the DSCC stays out of involvement of the race in the primary that would be helpful. We don’t want another repeat of 2020 where the DSCC endorsed Sara Gideon early on. Considering the 2020 election results though, I don’t think Susan Collins will win by double digit margins like she used to but if she ends up winning re-election, it won’t be a surprise.