Unfortunately both previous senate races involving Tillis has resulted in the polls overestimating the Democrat. Cunningham was ahead by more than this in most 2020 polls right up until the end and still lost.
If you want to see some ancient history of a wildly popular NC Gov challenging a controversial US Senator, here is one. Gov Hunt had over 70% approval when he ran against Jesse, and led by 19pt in the poll around 1 year before the election.
Yes, but....ultimately the Helms/Hunt race was largely shaped by presidential coattails. 2026 of course isn't a presidential year, and if it were it might not help the GOP. The 1983-84 cycle got redder as it progressed; if anything changes over 2025-26 it's likely to be the reverse.
Though I wouldn't call Tillis "controversial". To the extent he is, it's because of what others in his party are doing, not so much him personally.
I know. Just try to put these polls into perspective.
84 final vote study had Helms winning less than 2% of Black voters. In a much heavier overall turnout than 1980, over 68% as unheard of ever as in this Southern state, (the next time it got that level was with Obama running), Black voter turnout actually dropped. We saw that play now, didnтАЩt we?
There are some squishy Rs here in NC that like Cooper and don't like Tillis. I think a 2-point win, maybe higher, is feasible if Cooper runs and the political winds are at his back.
Cunningham crashed and burned at the end due to a cheating scandal that came up in October тАФ basically the most damaging timing. Not at all hard to imagine that this caused a decisive two point shift.
Also, polling in 2020 overstated our performance quite substantially across the board. Arguably by more than in 2016, except in 2016 the error was enough to change the presidential winner. Polling frequently had Biden up by margins of +8-10 points. Yet he ultimately won with +4 points, just enough to narrowly win the battleground states.
Polling in 2022-2024 has been more accurate, and I suspect (and hope) that if there were any skeletons in Cooper's closet that they would have been brought out by now across his decades of competitive campaigns.
Tillis has done some damage, ie flip flopping on FDJTтАЩs nominees and supporting the DOGE agenda. If Cooper runs and hits Tillis on DOGE and firing veterans from government jobs, he could win. HeтАЩs already won more statewide seats than Tillis.
Be very cautious about polling federal races in NC, which is the home state of PPP and has been overly optimistic in many cycles.
Unfortunately both previous senate races involving Tillis has resulted in the polls overestimating the Democrat. Cunningham was ahead by more than this in most 2020 polls right up until the end and still lost.
If you want to see some ancient history of a wildly popular NC Gov challenging a controversial US Senator, here is one. Gov Hunt had over 70% approval when he ran against Jesse, and led by 19pt in the poll around 1 year before the election.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina
Not to mention Harvey Gantt leading in polls for most of the 1990 US Senate race.
Yeah and that race didnтАЩt even end up that close in the end (53-47 for Helms).
Yes, but....ultimately the Helms/Hunt race was largely shaped by presidential coattails. 2026 of course isn't a presidential year, and if it were it might not help the GOP. The 1983-84 cycle got redder as it progressed; if anything changes over 2025-26 it's likely to be the reverse.
Though I wouldn't call Tillis "controversial". To the extent he is, it's because of what others in his party are doing, not so much him personally.
I know. Just try to put these polls into perspective.
84 final vote study had Helms winning less than 2% of Black voters. In a much heavier overall turnout than 1980, over 68% as unheard of ever as in this Southern state, (the next time it got that level was with Obama running), Black voter turnout actually dropped. We saw that play now, didnтАЩt we?
NC polling also seems to show Dems doing very well early but the GOP closing well very late. That said, I don't think it's not a winnable race.
Oh itтАЩs absolutely very winnable. Will be close.
There are some squishy Rs here in NC that like Cooper and don't like Tillis. I think a 2-point win, maybe higher, is feasible if Cooper runs and the political winds are at his back.
Cunningham crashed and burned at the end due to a cheating scandal that came up in October тАФ basically the most damaging timing. Not at all hard to imagine that this caused a decisive two point shift.
Also, polling in 2020 overstated our performance quite substantially across the board. Arguably by more than in 2016, except in 2016 the error was enough to change the presidential winner. Polling frequently had Biden up by margins of +8-10 points. Yet he ultimately won with +4 points, just enough to narrowly win the battleground states.
Polling in 2022-2024 has been more accurate, and I suspect (and hope) that if there were any skeletons in Cooper's closet that they would have been brought out by now across his decades of competitive campaigns.
Tillis has done some damage, ie flip flopping on FDJTтАЩs nominees and supporting the DOGE agenda. If Cooper runs and hits Tillis on DOGE and firing veterans from government jobs, he could win. HeтАЩs already won more statewide seats than Tillis.
That makes two politicians by the last name Cunningham who have gone through scandals.
Cal Cunningham - Cheating scandal
Randy "Duke" Cunningham - Corruption scandal
To be fair, it's a common name. How many people named Smith do you suppose were involved with scandals?
William Kennedy Smith although he got acquitted quickly (and is in fact a direct nephew of JFK as his mother was one of JFKтАЩs sisters).
Democratic State Senator Malcolm Smith
https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/21742/20130404/smith-scandal-reverberates-through-ny-political-circles
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith
https://youtu.be/qVQzGR3a6vk?si=Rlzd9uIBw-YdIdx5
For Cal Cunningham though, his scandal doesnтАЩt even compare to Randy тАШDukeтАЩ CunninghamтАЩs.
Both of them are the only politicians since the 2000тАЩs I can think of with the last name Cunningham who have had scandals.
Even Roy Cooper had a closer win than expected based on the polls in 2020....or 2016 for that matter.
At least in 2016, he was the challenger. 2016 is literally the ONLY time in North Carolina history that an incumbent Governor has been ousted.