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axlee's avatar

If you want to see some ancient history of a wildly popular NC Gov challenging a controversial US Senator, here is one. Gov Hunt had over 70% approval when he ran against Jesse, and led by 19pt in the poll around 1 year before the election.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina

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James Trout's avatar

Not to mention Harvey Gantt leading in polls for most of the 1990 US Senate race.

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John Carr's avatar

Yeah and that race didn’t even end up that close in the end (53-47 for Helms).

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Mike in MD's avatar

Yes, but....ultimately the Helms/Hunt race was largely shaped by presidential coattails. 2026 of course isn't a presidential year, and if it were it might not help the GOP. The 1983-84 cycle got redder as it progressed; if anything changes over 2025-26 it's likely to be the reverse.

Though I wouldn't call Tillis "controversial". To the extent he is, it's because of what others in his party are doing, not so much him personally.

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axlee's avatar

I know. Just try to put these polls into perspective.

84 final vote study had Helms winning less than 2% of Black voters. In a much heavier overall turnout than 1980, over 68% as unheard of ever as in this Southern state, (the next time it got that level was with Obama running), Black voter turnout actually dropped. We saw that play now, didn’t we?

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