Leading Off
KS-Sen, NC-Sen, GA-Sen
Republicans are suddenly plowing money into a Senate race they never expected would be competitive while pulling back from contests that had once been among their top targets.
On Friday, the Senate Leadership Fund began airing ads for the first time in Kansas, a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1932—by far the longest dry spell in the nation for either party.1 CNN, citing data from AdImpact, reports that SLF is spending at least $10.1 million to aid Republican incumbent Roger Marshall against Democrat Adam Hamilton, though that total could rise as more information comes in.
Those funds will come at the expense of North Carolina Republican Michael Whatley, whom SLF has now abandoned altogether as polls show him far behind Democrat Roy Cooper in the race to hold retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’ seat.
Whatley’s bad day began early Friday when Semafor reported that SLF was “pausing its ad campaign” to help him against Cooper, a proven vote-getter who served two terms as governor. But the pause didn’t last long.
Just hours later, the New York Times reported that the super PAC, which had already spent $30 million on the race, was not simply pausing its campaign but instead canceling all of its remaining ad time. CNN later reported that $13.2 million was axed.
Republicans have spent weeks speculating that deep-pocketed conservative groups could leave both Whatley and Georgia Republican Mike Collins—who is also in bad shape against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff—to fend for themselves so they could direct their money to more competitive races.
An unnamed source informed NBC on Friday that SLF was still spending in Georgia, but some of Collins’ fellow Republicans think the race is already over. One especially pessimistic Republican told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in late September, “At this point, it’s about making the patient comfortable.”
Some other groups, however, have already decided to pull the plug. Punchbowl News reported on Friday that the National Republican Senatorial Committee isn’t running coordinated ads with either Collins or Whatley and added that Donald Trump’s No Going Back PAC had less than $90,000 still reserved in Georgia and nothing in North Carolina.
Trump himself offered little solace for Whatley when reporters asked him about SLF’s departure from North Carolina. He instead said, “I am worried about him.”
While Whatley and Collins have long struggled in states that Trump won only narrowly in 2024, Marshall spent most of the cycle looking secure in Kansas, a state Trump last carried 57-41.
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But things began to change at the end of April when Hamilton, the founder of the largest United Methodist church in the country, joined the race and quickly began raising large sums.
Hamilton went on to decisively win the Democratic primary in August, and several polls now show him locked in a tight general election with Marshall. A new aggregate of surveys compiled by FiftyPlusOne shows Hamilton with a narrow 46.1 to 45.4 advantage over the incumbent as of Sunday.
Still, Republicans had reason to feel confident that Marshall would continue their 88-year winning streak in the Sunflower State. Six years ago, Marshall, then a congressman, prevailed 53-42 against a well-funded Democratic effort to flip what was then an open seat.
But Marshall, a former obstetrician, attracted the worst attention of his decade-long political career early last month when the New York Times reported he’d sued more than 700 patients over unpaid bills and had his attorneys seek garnishments and even arrests.
“They arrested me because I didn’t make a $50 payment to Roger Marshall,” Meischa Zimmerman, a former patient who was heavily featured in the story, said in a subsequent ad for Hamilton. “I was eight months pregnant, and I said, please do not handcuff me in front of my two-year-old daughter. Roger Marshall preyed on the low-income families of Kansas.”
Marshall’s attorneys responded to the spot last week with a cease-and-desist letter to Hamilton, whom they alleged was making “defamatory” claims against the senator. Among other things, they objected to the idea that Zimmerman was arrested for “missing a single $50 payment” when, they say, she had failed to make that monthly payment as part of her $3,595 debt.
Hamilton responded by sharing a letter from his attorney concluding the ad was true and would continue airing.
“[T]he existing evidence shows that a now-sitting U.S. Senator’s practice chose to set exorbitant interest rates to claw back his patients’ debt, sought warrants for his patients’ arrests, and then used their bond payments as a method to pay back the patients’ debt,” his lawyer wrote. “Ms. Zimmerman may not have been in a position to defend herself against Senator Marshall’s practices. Our client is.”
The GOP, meanwhile, has zeroed in on Hamilton’s own career as a pastor to argue that he’s the wrong choice to represent Kansas. SLF’s opening ad features a clip of Hamilton saying that “Black Lives Matter is just a fundamental philosophy and statement” to bolster the narrator’s case that he’s “a two-faced extremist.”
Marshall himself also debuted a new spot Friday arguing his opponent failed to protect children from a “child predator working at Adam Hamilton’s megachurch.” The ad says that Hamilton didn’t contact the police after victims came forward and instead “welcomed … back” the alleged abuser the following fall.
Hamilton responded later that same day with his own ad in which the candidate tells the audience Republicans are “lying about a tragic event decades ago.”
“Over 20 years ago, the church investigated serious allegations against a volunteer at a youth retreat,” Hamilton says. “Ultimately, the church reported him to law enforcement and banned him from church programs. Now this is exactly the kind of dirty politics Roger Marshall is playing that everybody hates.”
The story originally surfaced in May during the Democratic primary when one of Hamilton’s rivals accused him of concealing the abuse that a volunteer named Scott Preston Moore committed during the 2000s.
According to court documents that were part of an eventual criminal case against Moore, several teenagers approached camp leaders following alleged incidents of sexual abuse in 2005. Though the camp conducted an internal investigation, an appeals court said leaders “were dismissive of their claims,” and that the investigation failed to establish Moore as the perpetrator.
Hamilton was not mentioned in the documents concerning the matter, and his campaign told the Kansas Reflector he wasn’t at the camp that year.
Court records said Moore returned as a volunteer in 2006 and entered campers’ sleeping quarters at night. This time, however, the church contacted authorities and put in place new rules to screen volunteers.
Moore, though, did not face charges until several years later, when an unidentified man told Hamilton that Moore had abused him in 1979 when, as a five-year-old, Moore was his babysitter.
The man approached law enforcement after confiding in Hamilton, and though the statute of limitations had expired, police began investigating Moore over a different abuse allegation. He was sentenced to a year in prison in 2013 and died two years later.
Hamilton is now arguing that Marshall is bringing up the matter to divert attention away from his own problems.
“Roger Marshall’s at it again, lying about Adam Hamilton to cover up having his own patients arrested,” says the narrator in another commercial. “The truth? Over 20 years ago, Hamilton’s church reported incidents involving a volunteer to law enforcement and then cut ties with him. Hamilton later helped get this predator convicted.”
It remains to be seen, however, whether Democratic groups will rush in to help Hamilton keep pace. As of Friday, FEC reports showed that Hamilton’s allies had spent $3.7 million in independent expenditures since August compared to $1.4 million for Marshall, but those figures don’t reflect SLF’s new offensive.
3Q Fundraising
VT-Gov: (September fundraising):
Amanda Janoo (D): $291,000 raised, $280,000 cash on hand
Phil Scott (R-inc): $223,000 raised, $296,000 cash on hand
AZ-06: JoAnna Mendoza (D): $3.3 million raised
FL-13: Leela Gray (D): $1.4 million raised
FL-14: Kathy Castor (D-inc): $2.5 million raised
KY-06: Zach Dembo (D): $1.35 million raised
TX-15: Bobby Pulido (D): $3.4 million raised
Senate
ME-Sen
The Senate Majority PAC is putting a reported $3.4 million behind a new ad campaign hammering Republican Sen. Susan Collins over corruption allegations brought to light by ProPublica last month.
The spot features a variety of news clips referencing the story, which received heavy exposure both in Maine and nationally, but is chiefly narrated by an unnamed older woman with a distinct Maine accent.
“Susan Collins took illegal campaign money and steered millions in government contracts to the donor,” she says. “But Donald Trump’s administration shut down the investigation.”
“Maybe there’s a reason Susan Collins does whatever Donald Trump wants her to,” she concludes.
Last month, ProPublica reported on a previously unrevealed corruption investigation involving Collins.
According to the outlet, a Hawaii defense contractor had used a shell company to donate $150,000 to a pro-Collins super PAC in exchange for Collins’ help in securing government contracts.
The firm’s CEO, Martin Kao, later pleaded guilty to making illegal campaign contributions—government contractors are barred from making political donations—but was reportedly working with prosecutors to expose his “sprawling pay-to-play operation” in exchange for leniency, ProPublica wrote.
That probe quietly died, however, after Donald Trump returned to the White House and decimated the FBI’s anti-corruption unit.
TX-Sen
The star of the newest ad supporting Ken Paxton’s beleaguered Senate bid is none other than the candidate’s estranged wife—who mentions neither her husband nor the race he’s running in.
Angela Paxton, who herself is a member of Texas’ state Senate, begins by introducing herself and telling viewers, “People have asked my thoughts about this election, and turns out, I have some. Let’s talk about the elephant in the room.”
“In a general election, it’s not as much about the individual players on the team,” she continues. “It’s about getting the whole team across the finish line. Either we hold every Republican seat, or we hand the future of Texas to the other team. That’s why I’m voting for the Republican ticket on November 3rd. Let’s hold the line together.”
The ad is being run by Texas PAC, which is an affiliate of the Senate Leadership Fund, the top GOP super PAC involved in Senate races. SLF has now spent a reported $131 million on the contest.
Paxton’s appearance on her husband’s behalf follows her announcement last year that she was seeking divorce “on biblical grounds.”
“Today, after 38 years of marriage, I filed for divorce on biblical grounds,” she posted on X in July. “I believe marriage is a sacred covenant and I have earnestly pursued reconciliation. But in light of recent discoveries, I do not believe that it honors God or is loving to myself, my children, or Ken to remain in the marriage.”
In divorce papers, Paxton used more traditional legal language and accused her husband, who’s served as state attorney general since 2015, of “adultery.”
As early as 2020, the Associated Press reported that Ken Paxton had engaged in an affair with a legislative aide named Laura Olson, who was later hired by real estate investor Nate Paul.
In 2023, when the state House impeached Ken Paxton on 20 different grounds of misconduct, one article charged that Paul’s decision to employ Olson constituted bribery of the attorney general. Paxton’s efforts to conceal the alleged affair were a central part of the case against him.
As the Texas Tribune explained, lawmakers argued that Paul hired Olson, who’d been living in San Antonio, “so that she could move to Austin and helped Paxton clandestinely meet with her through a secret Uber account that the two men shared.” Ultimately, though, the Senate acquitted Paxton, who’d been accused of threatening political retribution against impeachment supporters.
Last year, the Daily Mail, a conservative British tabloid, reported that Paxton also had an affair with Christian influencer Tracy Duhon, who was married at the time. A Paxton spokesperson attacked the paper as a “trash blog” in a statement but did not dispute the reporting.
Mayors & County Leaders
Jacksonville, FL Mayor
Republican state Rep. Wyman Duggan on Friday became the first major candidate to announce a campaign against Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan in next spring’s officially nonpartisan race to lead Florida’s largest city.
In 2023, Deegan gave Sunshine State Democrats a rare high-profile victory when she prevailed 52-48 in an open-seat race, flipping the mayor’s office in what had been the largest city in the country with a Republican leader. That victory made her just the second Democrat to hold the post since the early 1990s.
All candidates will face off on March 9 of next year. If no one secures a majority of the vote, a second round of voting would take place on May 18.
Poll Pile
All polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
AK-Sen: Siena University/The New York Times:
Mary Peltola (D): 50, Dan Sullivan (R-inc): 43.
June: 47-45 Sullivan.
IA-Sen: Siena/NYT:
Ashley Hinson (R): 48, Josh Turek (D): 47.
June: 48-46 Hinson.
ID-Sen: Peak Insights for Jim Risch:
Risch (R-inc): 49, Todd Achilles (I): 24, all others 3% or less.
Aug.: 52-18 Risch.
KS-Sen: Siena/NYT:
Adam Hamilton (D): 45, Roger Marshall (R-inc): 45, David Graham (L): 5.
Marshall (R-inc): 47, Hamilton (D): 46.
KS-Sen: Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General Association:
Hamilton (D): 47, Marshall (R-inc): 43, Graham (L): 5.
Hamilton (D): 49, Marshall (R-inc): 47.
A memo for this poll was released last week that did not include results for the Senate race. The portions of that poll covering the governor and attorney general races were featured in the last Digest.
ME-Sen: YouGov for CBS News:
Troy Jackson (D): 50, Susan Collins (R-inc): 50.
YouGov allowed respondents to select “Not Sure,” but this option rounded out to 0%.
NE-Sen: co/efficient:
Pete Ricketts (R-inc): 45, Dan Osborn (I): 40, all others 2% or less.
Ricketts (R-inc): 48, Osborn (I): 43.
Co/efficient, a Republican firm, says this survey was “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate committee, party committee or other independent expenditure.”
OH-Sen: Siena/NYT:
Sherrod Brown (D): 49, Jon Husted (R-inc): 46.
June: 50-47 Husted.
TX-Sen: Siena/NYT:
James Talarico (D): 51, Ken Paxton (R): 45.
June: 47-47 tie.
AK-Gov: Siena/NYT:
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D): 40, Bernadette Wilson (R): 20, Dave Bronson (R): 15, Treg Taylor (R): 11.
After simulated ranked-choice: Kreiss-Tomkins (D): 52, Wilson (R): 48.
IA-Gov: Siena/NYT:
Rob Sand (D): 52, Zach Lahn (R): 41.
June: 48-47 Sand.
KS-Gov: Siena/NYT:
Ty Masterson (R): 49, Cindy Holscher (D): 44.
ME-Gov: YouGov:
Hanna Pingree (D): 56, Bobby Charles (R): 44.
NE-Gov: co/efficient:
Jim Pillen (R-inc): 43, Lynne Walz (D): 38, Brett Lindstrom (America First Party): 5, Rick Beard (Legal Marijuana NOW Party): 3.
OH-Gov: Siena/NYT:
Amy Acton (D): 49, Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 45.
June: 47-47 tie.
TX-Gov: Siena/NYT:
Gina Hinojosa (D): 49, Greg Abbott (R-inc): 46.
June: 51-44 Abbott.
AK-AL: Siena/NYT:
Nick Begich (R-inc): 47, Bill Hill (I): 35, Eric Hafner (D): 8, Jim McDermott (L): 5.
After simulated ranked-choice: Begich (R-inc): 53, Hill (I): 47.
CA-11: Tavern Research for Jobs And Democracy PAC (pro-Scott Wiener):
Wiener (D): 45, Connie Chan (D): 34.
KY-06: GQR for Zach Dembo:
Dembo (D): 42, Ralph Alvarado (R): 37, Jay Bowman (I): 8, Pete Lynch (I): 3.
ME-02: Tulchin Research for Matt Dunlap:
Dunlap (D): 50, Paul LePage (R): 48.
SC-01: co/efficient for Thank You For Your Attention To This Matter PAC (pro-Jenny Honeycutt)
Honeycutt (R): 46, Nancy Lacore (D): 40, Bill Reeside (L): 4.
VA-06: co/efficient for Ben Cline:
Cline (R-inc): 59, Beth Macy (D): 29.
WI-01: Impact Research for House Majority PAC:
Mitchell Berman (D): 48, Bryan Steil (R-inc): 47.
IN-SoS: The Tarrance Group for Hoosier Leadership for America (pro-Max Engling):
Engling (R): 38, Beau Bayh (D): 37, Lauri Schillings (L): 6, Greg Ballard (Lincoln Party): 5.
The next-longest streaks all date to 1970. That was the last time Republicans won a Senate race in Hawaii, and also the most recent year Democrats won in Utah and Wyoming.
Janoo fundraising more than Phil Scott (albeit with less cash on hand) is something. I saw on Bluesky too that polling is getting close. Will be curious to see what happens here.
Question: with Rep. Chris Deluzio considering a run for Senate against John Fetterman, does his House seat change its partisan affiliation at all? And who might run for the now open seat if Deluzio does run?