Morning Digest: Pennsylvania Democrats are 'cautiously optimistic' about flipping a seat Trump won by 33 points

An upset would finally give Democrats some breathing room in the state House

Pennsylvania Democrat Caleb McCoy (credit: Caleb McCoy website)

Leading Off

Special Elections

Special elections in a trio of red districts are on the ballot in two states on Tuesday, but Democrats in Pennsylvania are “cautiously optimistic” about their chances of flipping one of them.

That seat is the 79th House District in Altoona, conservative turf that voted for Donald Trump by a daunting 66-33 margin in 2024, according to calculations by The Downballot. When it became vacant last year after Republican state Rep. Louis Schmitt won a local judgeship, there was little reason to think it might be competitive.

However, Spotlight PA’s Stephen Caruso reported shortly before the election that Democrats are “cautiously optimistic” about their candidate, Caleb McCoy, a registered nurse and Army National Guard veteran.

“We believe it would be negligence with how motivated our electorate is right now, and with a candidate like McCoy, to not take this race seriously and reach every one of our voters we can,” Caruso’s unnamed source said.

McCoy faces Republican Andrea Verobish, a congressional staffer for Rep. Glenn Thompson.

Like many Democrats running in deep-red districts across the country, McCoy has emphasized his opposition to data centers and school vouchers. At the same time, though, he hasn’t hesitated to blast ICE, calling the Trump administration “entire fascist” in a recent interview with podcaster Zeke Tayler.

Verobish, by contrast, has focused on a socially conservative message, trumpeting endorsements from anti-abortion and pro-gun groups and saying she wants to “[p]rotect women’s sports.”

According to their most recent fundraising reports, Verobish and McCoy have raised similar sums: $28,000 for the former and $26,000 for the latter. McCoy, however, also reported receiving more than $50,000 in aid from the House Democratic caucus and the state Democratic Party.

Verobish appears to have drawn no comparable support from official GOP entities, though a conservative group called Make Liberty Win spent about $11,000 on her behalf.

McCoy also got a boost on the campaign trail from two prominent Pennsylvania names: Former Rep. Conor Lamb and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta both stumped for him in the final weekend of the race.

Democrats are hoping for a repeat of last year’s stunning victory in Amish country, when James Malone flipped a state Senate seat that Democrats had never won before. That district, though, went for Trump by a smaller 57-42 margin.

In the state House, Democrats have held a one-seat margin since the 2022 elections, so an upset would finally give them some more breathing room.

They haven’t, however, expressed similar hopes about the simultaneous special election for the 193rd House District in south-central Pennsylvania, which backed Trump by an even wider 69-31 spread. That contest pits Democrat Todd Crawley against Republican Catherine Wallen for the right to replace Republican Torren Ecker, who was also elected to a judgeship last fall.

In addition, there’s a race for Virginia’s 98th House District in Virginia Beach, which voted 57-42 for Trump. Republican Del. Barry Knight defeated Democrat Cheryl Smith by a similar 57-43 spread last November, but he died three months later following a battle with cancer.

The GOP is fielding local prosecutor Andrew Rice, while Smith, a retired teacher, is running again for the Democrats.

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Dems notch 10th special election flip

Redistricting Roundup

VA Redistricting

Democrats enjoy a massive advantage over Republicans in TV spending and reservations ahead of the April 21 special election that would allow Virginia to enact a new congressional map, the Virginia Scope’s Brandon Jarvis reports. So far, the “yes” side has booked $9 million in airtime, while opponents have reserved just $268,000.

Politico separately writes that GOP groups received almost $3 million in donations last week in their effort to defeat the proposed constitutional amendment, so that enormous gap will likely narrow. The Democratic side, though, benefited from a larger $5 million contribution from the House Majority PAC, which is the main pro-Democratic super PAC involved in House campaigns.

But while there’s over a month to go before the election, Republicans can’t wait nearly that long before ramping up their efforts. Early voting began on March 6, and data from the Virginia Public Access Project shows that more than 150,000 ballots had been cast through Monday.

Governors

GA-Gov

A federal judge has stayed his own ruling barring Lt. Gov. Burt Jones from using a special political committee to raise and spend unlimited funds on his bid for governor as Jones appeals the case.

At a hearing on Friday, U.S. District Judge Thomas Thrash issued a preliminary injunction clamping down on Jones’ “leadership committee,” a vehicle that only a few Georgia officials, including the governor and lieutenant governor, are permitted to create. Previously, Thrash had issued a temporary restraining order to similar effect, finding that such committees were “likely unconstitutional.”

But by pausing his Friday ruling, Thrash has once again allowed Jones to deploy his leadership committee without restraint. Depending on whether and when the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals steps in, that would permit Jones to spend freely ahead of the May 19 Republican primary.

However, the Jones rival who brought the case, wealthy businessman Rick Jackson, has already flooded the airwaves with massive sums. Earlier this month, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Jackson had already spent or reserved $33 million in advertising time, compared to $10 million for Jones.

NM-Gov

Republican Jim Ellison, a former member of New Mexico’s Public Regulation Commission, announced late last week that he was dropping his bid for governor and would instead seek the GOP nod for state treasurer as a write-in candidate.

New Mexico Republicans failed to recruit any candidates to challenge three Democrats who hold statewide office as of last month’s filing deadline, including Treasurer Laura Montoya. That theoretically gives Ellison an open shot at winning the Republican nomination, though simply qualifying for the ballot will be a challenge.

To even be eligible as a write-in candidate in the GOP primary, Ellison must turn in at least 2,351 signatures by Tuesday. He then needs to win that same number of votes in the primary to ensure his name appears on the November ballot. Republicans last won an election for this post in 1966.

Four other notable Republicans are still running for the open governorship: businessman Doug Turner, former state Cabinet official Duke Rodriguez, Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, and state Sen. Steve Lanier. Democrats have a two-way race between former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman.

SC-Gov

Wealthy businessman Rom Reddy unexpectedly announced Monday that he was making a late entry into the June 9 Republican primary for South Carolina’s open governorship.

Reddy, who tells the Post and Courier that he’ll throw down $1 million on an opening ad campaign, is the founder of a conservative group called DOGE SC. Reddy has also generated attention for his ongoing legal battle with the state over his attempt to erect a seawall without a permit to protect his beachfront home.

The newcomer began his campaign by pledging to self-fund his entire effort. In a statement launching his campaign, he also portrayed himself as an alternative to “all the other candidates with over 50 years in government who take money from PAC’s, corporations and special interest but claim they have your back.”

Reddy, who kicked off his bid just two weeks before the March 30 filing deadline, is the sixth notable Republican to enter the race to succeed GOP Gov. Henry McMaster, who is termed out.

The field consists of Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who has McMaster’s endorsement; state Sen. Josh Kimbrell; Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman; and Attorney General Alan Wilson. A runoff will take place on June 23 unless one contender wins a majority of the vote in the first round.

House

CO-01

Attorney Melat Kiros resoundingly beat Rep. Diana DeGette at a Democratic Party caucus in Denver over the weekend, a result that could jeopardize the longtime congresswoman’s access to the June 30 primary ballot.

At the gathering, Kiros won the support of 63% of attendees, compared with 35% for DeGette, according to Ernest Luning of Colorado Politics. Those results will be used to award delegates to the party’s district-level convention, known locally as an assembly, on March 27. (Virtually all of the 1st District is located in Denver, with just a tiny slice in Arapahoe County.)

To advance to the primary, candidates must win at least 30% at the assembly, unless they also gather voter signatures—an option that DeGette has eschewed. While her 35% showing at the Denver caucus should be enough to ensure she moves on, delegates are not bound to candidates.

A relatively small shift, therefore, could imperil DeGette, and if she were to fall below 30%, her campaign would immediately be over.

Another Democrat, University of Colorado Regent Wanda James, is also waging an intraparty campaign against DeGette, who was first elected to Congress in 1996. But Luning writes that James has decided to skip the assembly and has opted to instead gather the requisite 1,500 signatures needed to appear on the primary ballot.

FL-02

Donald Trump said at an event with House Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday that Florida Rep. Neal Dunn “would be dead by June,” prompting a seemingly stunned Johnson to say, “Okay, that wasn’t public, but yeah, okay.”

Ever since Dunn, who represents Florida’s conservative 2nd District, unexpectedly announced his retirement in June, reports have swirled about his health. Dunn even declined to dismiss the possibility that he might resign early when asked by Politico last month, though his office has insisted he plans to finish out his term.

At a lunch for the board of the Kennedy Center, Trump noted the GOP’s small margin in the House, then addressed Johnson.

“We had one man who is very ill. It looked like he wasn’t gonna make it,” Trump said. “I don’t know. I won’t mention his name. Should I? Do other people know his name? Do you want to mention it? He’ll be proud. Go ahead. Tell them the story.”

A visibly uncomfortable Johnson responded, “Congressman Neal Dunn of Florida had had some real health challenges, and it was very serious and had had a pretty grim diagnosis. And I mentioned it to the president, and I said Congressman Dunn is a real champion and a patriot because he’s still coming to work, and if others got this diagnosis, they would be apt to go home and retire.”

“What was the diagnosis?” Trump asked.

“I think it was a terminal diagnosis,” Johnson answered, prompting Trump to elaborate, “He would be dead by June.”

“Okay, that wasn’t public, but yeah, okay,” Johnson replied, as the audience audibly groaned. “It was grim, that’s what I was going to say.”

Johnson then said that Trump had told Dunn to see Trump’s doctors at Walter Reed Medical Center, who then performed emergency surgery. After Dunn emerged, Johnson concluded, “The man has a new lease on life.”

TX-32

Attorney Jace Yarbrough, who just narrowly missed avoiding a runoff as he seeks Texas’ 32nd District, has earned the support of several of the candidates he bested in the GOP primary.

The new endorsers include businessman Paul Bondar, who finished third with 14% of the vote. Yarborough, who has the backing of Donald Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott, took 49%, while the second-place finisher, pastor Ryan Binkley, grabbed 22%.

Utah

Most candidates running for Congress in Utah have opted for a belt-and-suspenders approach to making the June 23 primary ballot, but one prominent far-right challenger is relying solely on her appeal with convention delegates.

Hopefuls in Utah can either gather signatures from voters, earn enough support at their party’s convention, or do both. New filings with election officials show that every Democrat in the redrawn 1st District—now a solidly blue constituency—is pursuing both routes, as are Republican Rep. Celeste Maloy and her top challenger, former state Rep. Phil Lyman, in the conservative 3rd District.

But in the 2nd District, only Republican Rep. Blake Moore is taking the dual approach. State Rep. Karianne Lisonbee, by contrast, is taking her case directly to the GOP’s April 25 convention, where she must win the votes of at least 40% of delegates to move on.

That likely won’t be a problem, though, since Moore has fared poorly at conventions in the past. In 2022, Moore trailed retired intelligence officer Andrew Badger 59-41 among delegates, and likewise came up short in 2024 against electrician Paul Moore, who prevailed 55-45.

But in both cases, Moore bounced back in the primary, beating Badger 58-28 and Miller 71-29. Those opposing outcomes reflect a split commonly seen in Utah politics, where convention-goers are typically more eager to embrace outsiders over incumbents compared to the broader primary electorate.

In the 4th District, GOP Rep. Mike Kennedy is also going convention-only, but he doesn’t face serious intra-party opposition.

Poll Pile

• IL-Sen (D): FM3 for the American Future Fund:

  • Juliana Stratton: 38, Raja Krishnamoorthi: 33, Robin Kelly: 18.

  • American Future Fund, which is funded by the gambling companies DraftKings and FanDuel, has been involved in state House races but does not appear to have taken a side in this primary.

• NC-Sen: Public Policy Polling:

  • Roy Cooper (D): 47, Michael Whatley (R): 44.

  • PPP is a Democratic pollster, but it informs The Downballot that it did not have a client for this poll.

• SC-Sen: Impact Research for Annie Andrews:

  • Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 47, Annie Andrews (D): 42.

• TX-Sen (R): Peak Insights for Texas for a Conservative Majority (pro-Cornyn):

  • John Cornyn (inc): 45, Ken Paxton: 45. (Unreleased February poll: 47-44 Paxton)

• SD-Gov (R): Public Opinion Strategies for Larry Rhoden:

  • Dusty Johnson: 33, Larry Rhoden (inc): 28, Toby Doeden: 16, Jon Hansen: 10.

• FL-27 (D): Bendixen & Amandi International for Eliott Rodriguez:

  • Eliott Rodriguez: 43, Robin Peguero: 16, Richard Lamondin: 14.

  • The memo did not mention businessman Lev Parnas, who entered the Democratic primary while this poll was in the field.

• VA-06 (D): Montico for Unity & Justice Fund:

  • Tom Perriello: 34, Sam Rasoul: 16, Beth Macy: 13, undecided: 35.

  • Rasoul, a member of the House of Delegates, is not currently running. Unity & Justice Fund does not appear to have endorsed a candidate, but the pollster’s memo emphasizes Rasoul’s favorability rating and improved performance in the informed ballot portion of the poll.

• NC Supreme Court: PPP:

  • Anita Earls (D-inc): 43, Sarah Stevens (R): 40.