We won't really know the impact/extent of the realignment until after he's gone. Remember the GOP got shitcanned by the swingy groups in 2018, amd the thought was 2016 was an aberration amd sense would go back to the world, but it didn't turn out like that.
Trump brings out MILLIONS of voters who love him but don't care much for Republica…
We won't really know the impact/extent of the realignment until after he's gone. Remember the GOP got shitcanned by the swingy groups in 2018, amd the thought was 2016 was an aberration amd sense would go back to the world, but it didn't turn out like that.
Trump brings out MILLIONS of voters who love him but don't care much for Republicans. How many of them stay loyal Republicans vs how many drift back into routine non-voters like happened with many of Perot's voters, depends on a lot of variables impossible to predict currently.
We also don't have many data points here. Since 2016 we've only had two data points for regular elections that didn't have him on the ballot. Those being the two midterms of 2018 and 2022, which as is common had their own things going on.
I think on this axis of thought it comes down to if a republican candidate can successfully take up that mantle in the eyes of the conservative voter base. It's not an easy task, and I wouldn't bet on anyone being able to do it. But "not easy" isn't the same as "not possible." For that matter it is not their only path to victory again.
We're going to have closely divided electorates for the foreseeable future I expect. The question is how the coalitions within them look.
Yes; despite the party essentially becoming a Reagan-worship cult after his presidency, no other GOP Republican came close to matching his numbers with traditionally Dem WWC/union constituencies until Trump 20 years later.
But a lot has changed since the 1980s; I worry about the Balkanization of people's media consumption in the smart phone age.
We won't really know the impact/extent of the realignment until after he's gone. Remember the GOP got shitcanned by the swingy groups in 2018, amd the thought was 2016 was an aberration amd sense would go back to the world, but it didn't turn out like that.
Trump brings out MILLIONS of voters who love him but don't care much for Republicans. How many of them stay loyal Republicans vs how many drift back into routine non-voters like happened with many of Perot's voters, depends on a lot of variables impossible to predict currently.
We also don't have many data points here. Since 2016 we've only had two data points for regular elections that didn't have him on the ballot. Those being the two midterms of 2018 and 2022, which as is common had their own things going on.
I think on this axis of thought it comes down to if a republican candidate can successfully take up that mantle in the eyes of the conservative voter base. It's not an easy task, and I wouldn't bet on anyone being able to do it. But "not easy" isn't the same as "not possible." For that matter it is not their only path to victory again.
We're going to have closely divided electorates for the foreseeable future I expect. The question is how the coalitions within them look.
Another example: Reagan dropoff
Yes; despite the party essentially becoming a Reagan-worship cult after his presidency, no other GOP Republican came close to matching his numbers with traditionally Dem WWC/union constituencies until Trump 20 years later.
But a lot has changed since the 1980s; I worry about the Balkanization of people's media consumption in the smart phone age.