think that is too strong. They still are a very good pollster, especially with how transparently Nate Cohn discusses what is going on and what they are trying to do.
That said, they have had a number of important misses in the past, so we absolutely shouldn't take their polls as gospel. But they themselves would say that I think.
They can be a good pollster, and their polls this year could still be a joke. Only the election results will show whether they were close to being on target or wildly off.
Also Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide in 30 years. There's much less of an incentive to poll it accurately than you would have with a more competitive state.
Agreed. But thinking the presidential race is competitive there is a bridge too far for many people. I think it could be and wouldn't rate the state more than Likely-R for the presidential race.
The presidential race might be competitive-ish, but with Harris' best poll all cycle showing her down 3 there isn't a reason to think it's seriously in play.
think that is too strong. They still are a very good pollster, especially with how transparently Nate Cohn discusses what is going on and what they are trying to do.
That said, they have had a number of important misses in the past, so we absolutely shouldn't take their polls as gospel. But they themselves would say that I think.
They can be a good pollster, and their polls this year could still be a joke. Only the election results will show whether they were close to being on target or wildly off.
Also Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide in 30 years. There's much less of an incentive to poll it accurately than you would have with a more competitive state.
Or a more obviously competitive one.
Hard to credibly claim that AllredтАУCruz isnтАЩt obviously competitive.
Agreed. But thinking the presidential race is competitive there is a bridge too far for many people. I think it could be and wouldn't rate the state more than Likely-R for the presidential race.
The presidential race might be competitive-ish, but with Harris' best poll all cycle showing her down 3 there isn't a reason to think it's seriously in play.
I don't disagree, but if all hell really breaks loose, Florida and Texas would be the next states after North Carolina to flip.