He saw sense in the end. A nationalized race in an extremely anti-Trump midterm would have been the worst possible climate for him. All eyes are now going to be on Scott Brown & Lily Tang Williams on the Republican side and they'd be way weaker in comparison.
The public option was blocked by Lieberman. ACA would presumably not be much, if any, different if Coakley had won. What would be different in that timeline is that other major legislation would have passed after the ACA. The next big push was something with the environment. They wanted to do cap and trade. Likely it would have been whittled down a bit into something lesser, but we probably would have gotten something decent. It's a bit hazier after that but I think immigration reform was the third priority.
All that might have helped us with 2010, might not have. Could argue that we didn't have much room to energize republican voters more, back in that era, but we did have a lot of room to energize our base to turn out. Could also argue that republicans could absolutely have been more motivated and that it would be a net neutral change or even made things worse. Although there weren't all that many important races left that were close that year to add to our L pile. NV-Sen and CO-Sen. MN-Gov, IL-Gov, OR-Gov.
I’m still not sure why Obama and senate Democrats didn’t pass a larger stimulus in early 2009 using budget reconciliation where they would only need 50 senate votes. Democrats would have likely done at least a bit better in 2010 with even a slightly better economy.
And don’t get me started on Lieberman and the public option. Harry Reid should have told him that if he didn’t vote for the bill with the public option, his chairmanship would be gone and any money going to things that he wanted would be shut off.
Obama wanted bipartisan, consensus legislation. For the longest time, he felt that he could win over support from a party that would rather see the country fail than a Black Democratic POTUS succeed.
In my opinion, the tragic flaw of the 2009 ARRA was its lack of direct support to state and local governments. Making it rain there could have prevented a lot of public-sector job losses.
And as for Lieberman, I strongly suspect that he wasn't the sole Senate roadblock to a public option. Don't forget, this was a caucus that still had Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, and Mary Landrieu!
Max Baucus on the finance committee is the first thing that comes to mind. Holding things up trying to get a deal with Grassley that was never going to happen.
Republicans only understand the language of force. You need to give it to them 10 times harder than they give us. There is nothing "bipartisan" about the party of Mcconnell and Gingrich. One of the first maneuvers of the next democratic president in 2028 should be to give statehood to Puerto Rico and DC.
You could be. Georgia is more Republican than New Hampshire, and Kemp established that he doesn't take orders from Trump, so he would be a strong candidate.
But that could be Kemp’s catch-22. It helped him secure his nomination in the primary in 2022 because Georgia has open primaries and he won the general election with crossover voters. Kemp/Warnock voters were a real thing. But at the same time, Kemp and Trump have supposedly kissed and made up. I know Georgia only entered Purple territory recently but it’s all about turnout of course and Kemp would have to decide if he thinks the MAGA base is big enough for a Senate run in 2026 and risk alienating the crossover appeal. Or he’ll have to do some fair amount of distancing from Trump but risk depressing the MAGA base. With Ossoff raising a record $11 million and coming out of the bar swinging at Trump in his campaign kickoff, I’d rather be Ossoff than Kemp in that scenario. Neither one has an easy road ahead but at least Ossoff has a lot of fuel.
And of course, Trump could easily turn on Kemp (especially if he shows any flash of independence whatsoever) and endorse someone awful like Empty Greene for the seat.
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about Ossoff's chances (I like the guy, but I'm unconvinced that he would have made it across the finish line without the Warnock-Loeffler race on the same ballot), but I won't be surprised if this is the fourth Senate election in a row that Georgia Republicans manage to blow.
His best chance at the seat was if a weaker democrat with little/no name recognition ran. If 2026 is a wave like we all hope, Sununu would need to be able to play up his name recognition to the max to have a chance.
Pappas jumping in took that path off the table. He's a strong candidate that would not allow Sununu to try that strategy. Not surprised by his decision in that context, especially with respect to the timing of announcements. Nobody wants to spend 18 months working nonstop to get a job that they probably will not get.
Sununu out for NH-Sen https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/04/08/metro/nh-chris-sununu-says-he-will-not-run-us-senate-shaheen-pappas/
He saw sense in the end. A nationalized race in an extremely anti-Trump midterm would have been the worst possible climate for him. All eyes are now going to be on Scott Brown & Lily Tang Williams on the Republican side and they'd be way weaker in comparison.
Move it to Likely D stat!! 💙🇺🇲⭐️😃
Scott Brown won only because of extreme negligence and campaign malpractice by the Democratic candidate at the time. That’s not going to happen again.
That and the fact that the ACA was quite unpopular back then.
Anyways it turned out fine in the end, we got ACA passed through senate maneuvers and we got Elizabeth Warren.
Would the Aca have a public option is Scott Brown lost?
The public option was blocked by Lieberman. ACA would presumably not be much, if any, different if Coakley had won. What would be different in that timeline is that other major legislation would have passed after the ACA. The next big push was something with the environment. They wanted to do cap and trade. Likely it would have been whittled down a bit into something lesser, but we probably would have gotten something decent. It's a bit hazier after that but I think immigration reform was the third priority.
All that might have helped us with 2010, might not have. Could argue that we didn't have much room to energize republican voters more, back in that era, but we did have a lot of room to energize our base to turn out. Could also argue that republicans could absolutely have been more motivated and that it would be a net neutral change or even made things worse. Although there weren't all that many important races left that were close that year to add to our L pile. NV-Sen and CO-Sen. MN-Gov, IL-Gov, OR-Gov.
I’m still not sure why Obama and senate Democrats didn’t pass a larger stimulus in early 2009 using budget reconciliation where they would only need 50 senate votes. Democrats would have likely done at least a bit better in 2010 with even a slightly better economy.
And don’t get me started on Lieberman and the public option. Harry Reid should have told him that if he didn’t vote for the bill with the public option, his chairmanship would be gone and any money going to things that he wanted would be shut off.
Obama wanted bipartisan, consensus legislation. For the longest time, he felt that he could win over support from a party that would rather see the country fail than a Black Democratic POTUS succeed.
In my opinion, the tragic flaw of the 2009 ARRA was its lack of direct support to state and local governments. Making it rain there could have prevented a lot of public-sector job losses.
And as for Lieberman, I strongly suspect that he wasn't the sole Senate roadblock to a public option. Don't forget, this was a caucus that still had Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, and Mary Landrieu!
Max Baucus on the finance committee is the first thing that comes to mind. Holding things up trying to get a deal with Grassley that was never going to happen.
I forgot to add him (and deficit hawk Kent Conrad) to the list.
The other fatal flaw was a lack of sufficient relief to foreclosed homeowners. The banks got bailed out and the homeowners got fucked.
Republicans only understand the language of force. You need to give it to them 10 times harder than they give us. There is nothing "bipartisan" about the party of Mcconnell and Gingrich. One of the first maneuvers of the next democratic president in 2028 should be to give statehood to Puerto Rico and DC.
Figured he's pass. I'm laso still leaning towards Brian Kemp passing on taking on Jon Ossoff next year but I could be wrong.
You could be. Georgia is more Republican than New Hampshire, and Kemp established that he doesn't take orders from Trump, so he would be a strong candidate.
But that could be Kemp’s catch-22. It helped him secure his nomination in the primary in 2022 because Georgia has open primaries and he won the general election with crossover voters. Kemp/Warnock voters were a real thing. But at the same time, Kemp and Trump have supposedly kissed and made up. I know Georgia only entered Purple territory recently but it’s all about turnout of course and Kemp would have to decide if he thinks the MAGA base is big enough for a Senate run in 2026 and risk alienating the crossover appeal. Or he’ll have to do some fair amount of distancing from Trump but risk depressing the MAGA base. With Ossoff raising a record $11 million and coming out of the bar swinging at Trump in his campaign kickoff, I’d rather be Ossoff than Kemp in that scenario. Neither one has an easy road ahead but at least Ossoff has a lot of fuel.
And of course, Trump could easily turn on Kemp (especially if he shows any flash of independence whatsoever) and endorse someone awful like Empty Greene for the seat.
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about Ossoff's chances (I like the guy, but I'm unconvinced that he would have made it across the finish line without the Warnock-Loeffler race on the same ballot), but I won't be surprised if this is the fourth Senate election in a row that Georgia Republicans manage to blow.
Pappas will have a much easier race to run now that Sununu is out.
His best chance at the seat was if a weaker democrat with little/no name recognition ran. If 2026 is a wave like we all hope, Sununu would need to be able to play up his name recognition to the max to have a chance.
Pappas jumping in took that path off the table. He's a strong candidate that would not allow Sununu to try that strategy. Not surprised by his decision in that context, especially with respect to the timing of announcements. Nobody wants to spend 18 months working nonstop to get a job that they probably will not get.
Likely Dem. Sununu was the only Republican who could've made this a real race, especially since Dems got their best possible candidate in Pappas.