House Democrats on Tuesday rolled out an initial list of 35 Republican-held seats they are targeting next year as the party looks to win control of the chamber.
House Democrats on Tuesday rolled out an initial list of 35 Republican-held seats they are targeting next year as the party looks to win control of the chamber.
I think Jeff Crank in CO-5 (around Colorado Springs) should be a target too. Trump only won it by 9 points, and the trends there look way better than some of the districts on this list like FL-27.
It's still by far the reddest at the presidential level (58-40 Trump). When we start winning Douglas county by double digits that one may come into play. The 5th has the best trend of the 4 R seats but Crank is the least offensive of the four I would say. The 3rd is kinda static and the 8th remains a tossup.
Relatively speaking. I'd be much more bullish on CO-05 if Dave Williams had Won the GOP primary in 2024 he would likely would have underperformed like Bobert.
If there were three tiers i'd say the 8th is in the first. The 3rd and 5th are in the second tier and the 4th is in it's own tier. Still think we should run solid candidates in all four. Dems could once again put up a really strong statewide performance that helps downballot.
I grew up there. The politics are similar to eastern Iowa where we've seen the two big special election overperformances. Plus Finstad has very loose levels of familiarity and seems like he'd be easy to define as an out of touch creature of Washington given his background. The district was a nailbiter as recently as 2018 and 2020 so I think it's at least worth being on the preliminary wish list along with IA-02.
I'm really hoping that Schweikert's seat finally falls—I'd love nothing more than for my millionaire Republican cousin in Scottsdale to have Democratic representation. (I gave to Marlene Galán-Woods last cycle, but was disappointed in her showing.)
Nice to see all four of the swing/light-red Pennsylvania districts on the list, too. I think the 8th is the most likely to fall, followed by the 10th, 7th, and 1st.
Sadly, I don't see any of the Ohio seats falling. Max Miller represents the town in which I attended college. (Back then it was represented by Dennis Kucinich, and I still remember the townies' yards being full of "DENNIS!" signs.)
And with a redraw of Wisconsin's map looking much more likely, Van Orden and Steil gotta go!
House Democrats on Tuesday rolled out an initial list of 35 Republican-held seats they are targeting next year as the party looks to win control of the chamber.
Nick Begich of Alaska’s at-large district
David Schweikert of Arizona’s 1st District
Eli Crane of Arizona’s 2nd
Juan Ciscomani of Arizona’s 6th
David Valadao of California’s 22nd
Young Kim of California’s 40th
Ken Calvert of California’s 41st
Gabe Evans of Colorado’s 8th
Cory Mills of Florida’s 7th
Anna Paulina Luna of Florida’s 13th
María Elvira Salazar of Florida’s 27th
Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa’s 1st
Ashley Hinson of Iowa’s 2nd
Zach Nunn of Iowa’s 3rd
Andy Barr of Kentucky’s 6th
Bill Huizenga of Michigan’s 4th
Tom Barrett of Michigan’s 7th
Open; Michigan’s 10th District
Ann Wagner of Missouri’s 2nd
Don Bacon of Nebraska’s 2nd
Thomas H. Kean Jr. of New Jersey’s 7th
Mike Lawler of New York’s 17th
Max Miller of Ohio’s 7th
Michael R. Turner of Ohio’s 10th https://rollcall.com/2025/04/08/house-democrats-targets-2026-midterm-elections/
Mike Carey of Ohio’s 15th
Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania’s 1st
Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania’s 7th
Rob Bresnahan Jr. of Pennsylvania’s 8th
Scott Perry of Pennsylvania’s 10th
Andy Ogles of Tennessee’s 5th
Monica De La Cruz of Texas’ 15th
Rob Wittman of Virginia’s 1st
Jen Kiggans of Virginia’s 2nd
Bryan Steil of Wisconsin’s 1st
Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin’s 3rd
https://rollcall.com/2025/04/08/house-democrats-targets-2026-midterm-elections/
Paleo, thank you!
Note: You accidentally repeated the link in the middle of your list.
I think Jeff Crank in CO-5 (around Colorado Springs) should be a target too. Trump only won it by 9 points, and the trends there look way better than some of the districts on this list like FL-27.
Speaking of Colorado how about Lauren Boebert? Her seat was closer than Crank’s at the congressional level.
It's still by far the reddest at the presidential level (58-40 Trump). When we start winning Douglas county by double digits that one may come into play. The 5th has the best trend of the 4 R seats but Crank is the least offensive of the four I would say. The 3rd is kinda static and the 8th remains a tossup.
They're all offensive, though.
Relatively speaking. I'd be much more bullish on CO-05 if Dave Williams had Won the GOP primary in 2024 he would likely would have underperformed like Bobert.
If there were three tiers i'd say the 8th is in the first. The 3rd and 5th are in the second tier and the 4th is in it's own tier. Still think we should run solid candidates in all four. Dems could once again put up a really strong statewide performance that helps downballot.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Williams_(Colorado_politician)
I admire the ambition of some of these seats!
Makes me wonder if they have confidence they can get a strong candidate in Alaska. FL-07, KY-06, MI-04, MO-02, TX-15 also stick out to me.
Supposedly Trudy Busch Valentine has been eyeing MO-02.
That's a very ambitious list, and I like seeing that!
I think Brad Finstad of MN-01 should be on there.
Interesting… not a take I expected from you considering the profile of that part of MN!
I grew up there. The politics are similar to eastern Iowa where we've seen the two big special election overperformances. Plus Finstad has very loose levels of familiarity and seems like he'd be easy to define as an out of touch creature of Washington given his background. The district was a nailbiter as recently as 2018 and 2020 so I think it's at least worth being on the preliminary wish list along with IA-02.
Never say never. We'd probably need a very strong candidate.
Fair enough
I'm really hoping that Schweikert's seat finally falls—I'd love nothing more than for my millionaire Republican cousin in Scottsdale to have Democratic representation. (I gave to Marlene Galán-Woods last cycle, but was disappointed in her showing.)
Nice to see all four of the swing/light-red Pennsylvania districts on the list, too. I think the 8th is the most likely to fall, followed by the 10th, 7th, and 1st.
Sadly, I don't see any of the Ohio seats falling. Max Miller represents the town in which I attended college. (Back then it was represented by Dennis Kucinich, and I still remember the townies' yards being full of "DENNIS!" signs.)
And with a redraw of Wisconsin's map looking much more likely, Van Orden and Steil gotta go!