Kamala Harris won 447 counties nationally compared to Biden's 538. I think that puts Harris at the fewest county wins since Mondale.
There were only 61 counties (and independent cities) that voted differently in the Senate race than the Presidential race, which is actually up from 43 in 2020.
Kamala Harris won 447 counties nationally compared to Biden's 538. I think that puts Harris at the fewest county wins since Mondale.
There were only 61 counties (and independent cities) that voted differently in the Senate race than the Presidential race, which is actually up from 43 in 2020.
A reemerging era of ticket-splitting? Hardly. In most cases, these 61 counties are places that went Biden four years but flipped to Trump in 2024, yet still narrowly held out for the Democratic Senate nominee.
Counties that split their ticket include....
1 Trump/Gallego county in Arizona (Maricopa)
1 Harris/Garvey county in California (Orange)
1 Harris/Banks county in Indiana (St. Joseph)
6 Trump/King counties in Maine (Androscoggin, Aroostook, Franklin, Kennebec, Oxford, and Penobscot)
2 Harris/Hogan counties in Maryland (Anne Arundel and Frederick)
2 Harris/Deaton counties in Massachusetts (Bristol and Plymouth)
1 Trump/Slotkin county in Michigan (Saginaw)
12 Trump/Klobuchar counties in Minnesota (Anoka, Beltrami, Blue Earth, Carlton, Carver, Mahnomen, Mower, Nicollet, Norman, Rice, Scott, Winona)
1 Trump/Kunce county in Missouri (Platte)
6 Trump/Tester counties in Montana (Big Horn, Blaine, Hill, Lewis and Clark, Park, and Roosevelt)
2 Trump/Osborn counties in Nebraska (Sarpy and Thurston)
2 Trump/Kim counties in New Jersey (Gloucester and Passaic)
1 Trump/Heinrich county in New Mexico (Socorro)
6 Trump/Gillibrand counties in New York (Clinton, Essex, Ontario, Orange, Rockland, and Warren)
1 (!!) Trump/Brown county in Ohio (Lorain)
3 Trump/Casey counties in Pennsylvania (Bucks, Erie, and Monroe)
1 Harris/Blackburn county in Tennessee (Haywood)
7 Trump/Allred counties in Texas (Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Tarrant, Webb, Willacy, and Williamson)
1 Harris/Curtis county in Utah (Salt Lake)
1 Trump/Sanders county in Vermont (Orleans)
2 Trump/Kaine counties in Virginia (Prince Edward and Surry)
Speaking of fast growing exurban counties in Georgia and North Carolina, some of the movements are real. Harris reduced the vote margin in many NC exurbs, and increased it in the exurbs south of ATL where a lot of Black voters are moving in.
Some are NOT real. Cherokee and Forsyth, GA and NC coasts. You see a huge influx of newcomers and a lot more votes than 4 years ago. The newcomers still lean red just less so than long time residents. You would see a much reduced %, but still losing by more and more votes. Ex, in Cherokee GA or Brunswick NC, Harris’ vote deficits exceeded all history. You would never win an election with this sort of “blueing”.
Cabarrus and Gaston counties in NC are growing pretty fast with the rest of the Charlotte metro. They’re both also major destinations of former Charlotteans looking for more affordable housing options within driving distance, which could explain why they shifted left while Mecklenburg itself didn’t.
Final numbers.....
Kamala Harris won 447 counties nationally compared to Biden's 538. I think that puts Harris at the fewest county wins since Mondale.
There were only 61 counties (and independent cities) that voted differently in the Senate race than the Presidential race, which is actually up from 43 in 2020.
A reemerging era of ticket-splitting? Hardly. In most cases, these 61 counties are places that went Biden four years but flipped to Trump in 2024, yet still narrowly held out for the Democratic Senate nominee.
Counties that split their ticket include....
1 Trump/Gallego county in Arizona (Maricopa)
1 Harris/Garvey county in California (Orange)
1 Harris/Banks county in Indiana (St. Joseph)
6 Trump/King counties in Maine (Androscoggin, Aroostook, Franklin, Kennebec, Oxford, and Penobscot)
2 Harris/Hogan counties in Maryland (Anne Arundel and Frederick)
2 Harris/Deaton counties in Massachusetts (Bristol and Plymouth)
1 Trump/Slotkin county in Michigan (Saginaw)
12 Trump/Klobuchar counties in Minnesota (Anoka, Beltrami, Blue Earth, Carlton, Carver, Mahnomen, Mower, Nicollet, Norman, Rice, Scott, Winona)
1 Trump/Kunce county in Missouri (Platte)
6 Trump/Tester counties in Montana (Big Horn, Blaine, Hill, Lewis and Clark, Park, and Roosevelt)
2 Trump/Osborn counties in Nebraska (Sarpy and Thurston)
2 Trump/Kim counties in New Jersey (Gloucester and Passaic)
1 Trump/Heinrich county in New Mexico (Socorro)
6 Trump/Gillibrand counties in New York (Clinton, Essex, Ontario, Orange, Rockland, and Warren)
1 (!!) Trump/Brown county in Ohio (Lorain)
3 Trump/Casey counties in Pennsylvania (Bucks, Erie, and Monroe)
1 Harris/Blackburn county in Tennessee (Haywood)
7 Trump/Allred counties in Texas (Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Tarrant, Webb, Willacy, and Williamson)
1 Harris/Curtis county in Utah (Salt Lake)
1 Trump/Sanders county in Vermont (Orleans)
2 Trump/Kaine counties in Virginia (Prince Edward and Surry)
1 Trump/Cantwell county in Washington (Pacific)
1 Trump/Baldwin county in Wisconsin (Sauk)
While we're on the subject of counties, here is the list of counties with more than 100k votes where Harris got a better margin than Biden did.
Colorado: Larimer, El Paso, Jefferson, Douglas
Delaware (!?): Sussex
Georgia: Henry (biggest blue shift of any county of any size), Cobb, Cherokee, Forsyth
Indiana: Hamilton
Kansas: Johnson
Michigan: Ottawa
Missouri: St. Charles
North Carolina: Buncombe, Johnston, Gaston, Cabarrus, Brunswick
Ohio: Clermont, Delaware
Oklahoma: Tulsa (!?)
Oregon: Multnomah (largest county by # of votes to trend blue)
Pennsylvania: Cumberland, Butler (where Trump was shot at)
Utah: Davis, Utah
Virginia: Chesterfield
Washington: Kitsap, Clark, Thurston, Whatcom
Wisconsin: Waukesha
In general, these counties are affluent and mostly white and/or black.
Speaking of fast growing exurban counties in Georgia and North Carolina, some of the movements are real. Harris reduced the vote margin in many NC exurbs, and increased it in the exurbs south of ATL where a lot of Black voters are moving in.
Some are NOT real. Cherokee and Forsyth, GA and NC coasts. You see a huge influx of newcomers and a lot more votes than 4 years ago. The newcomers still lean red just less so than long time residents. You would see a much reduced %, but still losing by more and more votes. Ex, in Cherokee GA or Brunswick NC, Harris’ vote deficits exceeded all history. You would never win an election with this sort of “blueing”.
Cabarrus and Gaston counties in NC are growing pretty fast with the rest of the Charlotte metro. They’re both also major destinations of former Charlotteans looking for more affordable housing options within driving distance, which could explain why they shifted left while Mecklenburg itself didn’t.