Speaking of fast growing exurban counties in Georgia and North Carolina, some of the movements are real. Harris reduced the vote margin in many NC exurbs, and increased it in the exurbs south of ATL where a lot of Black voters are moving in.
Some are NOT real. Cherokee and Forsyth, GA and NC coasts. You see a huge influx of newcomers and a lot more votes than 4 years ago. The newcomers still lean red just less so than long time residents. You would see a much reduced %, but still losing by more and more votes. Ex, in Cherokee GA or Brunswick NC, Harris’ vote deficits exceeded all history. You would never win an election with this sort of “blueing”.
Cabarrus and Gaston counties in NC are growing pretty fast with the rest of the Charlotte metro. They’re both also major destinations of former Charlotteans looking for more affordable housing options within driving distance, which could explain why they shifted left while Mecklenburg itself didn’t.
While we're on the subject of counties, here is the list of counties with more than 100k votes where Harris got a better margin than Biden did.
Colorado: Larimer, El Paso, Jefferson, Douglas
Delaware (!?): Sussex
Georgia: Henry (biggest blue shift of any county of any size), Cobb, Cherokee, Forsyth
Indiana: Hamilton
Kansas: Johnson
Michigan: Ottawa
Missouri: St. Charles
North Carolina: Buncombe, Johnston, Gaston, Cabarrus, Brunswick
Ohio: Clermont, Delaware
Oklahoma: Tulsa (!?)
Oregon: Multnomah (largest county by # of votes to trend blue)
Pennsylvania: Cumberland, Butler (where Trump was shot at)
Utah: Davis, Utah
Virginia: Chesterfield
Washington: Kitsap, Clark, Thurston, Whatcom
Wisconsin: Waukesha
In general, these counties are affluent and mostly white and/or black.
Speaking of fast growing exurban counties in Georgia and North Carolina, some of the movements are real. Harris reduced the vote margin in many NC exurbs, and increased it in the exurbs south of ATL where a lot of Black voters are moving in.
Some are NOT real. Cherokee and Forsyth, GA and NC coasts. You see a huge influx of newcomers and a lot more votes than 4 years ago. The newcomers still lean red just less so than long time residents. You would see a much reduced %, but still losing by more and more votes. Ex, in Cherokee GA or Brunswick NC, Harris’ vote deficits exceeded all history. You would never win an election with this sort of “blueing”.
Cabarrus and Gaston counties in NC are growing pretty fast with the rest of the Charlotte metro. They’re both also major destinations of former Charlotteans looking for more affordable housing options within driving distance, which could explain why they shifted left while Mecklenburg itself didn’t.