Morning Digest: Long Island GOP pulls off switcheroo, but not for the candidate it wanted

The new standard-bearer now has just seven months to mount a credible campaign for a swingy House seat

Jeanine Driscoll, Republican candidate for New York’s 4th Congressional District. (Credit: Jeanine Driscoll Facebook)

Leading Off

NY-04

GOP leaders in Nassau County announced Tuesday that they would field Jeanine Driscoll, who serves as receiver of taxes for the Town of Hempstead, against Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen—a decision that comes after more than a year of confusion and paralysis for Republicans.

Until recently, just about everyone anticipated that New York’s 4th Congressional District, a competitive constituency on Long Island, would play host to a third bout between Gillen and former Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito.

D’Esposito narrowly defeated Gillen in a 2022 race to replace retiring Democrat Kathleen Rice, a win that made him the first Republican to hold the seat in 26 years. Two years later, however, Gillen scored a 51-49 victory over D’Esposito, who was the subject of a New York Times story late in the campaign reporting that he gave a part-time job in his congressional office to a woman he was having an affair with.

Despite his loss and the bad press, Semafor reported in March of last year that D’Esposito was “expected” to try to reclaim the 4th District, which had backed Kamala Harris by a slim 50-49 spread four years after Joe Biden carried it by a much wider 57-42 margin. That story, though, only marked the start of a long will-he-or-won’t-he saga that only concluded this week.

Last April, Donald Trump nominated D’Esposito to serve as inspector general for the Labor Department, a move that initially seemed to signal that the ex-congressman had decided against a rematch.

D’Esposito, though, drew attention at his Senate confirmation hearing in October—a full six months after Trump tapped him—when he refused to answer questions about whether he might run for office again.

He was finally confirmed in December and sworn in the following month, putting him in charge of the investigation into misconduct allegations surrounding Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, his former House colleague from Oregon.

D’Esposito, though, continued to send confusing signals about his interest in another campaign for Congress. Other prominent Long Island Republicans stayed on the sidelines, waiting to see what he’d do.

The former lawmaker seemed to finally make up his mind in early March when Newsday reported that a campaign launch was imminent. But what followed was just more uncertainty—and more obfuscation from D’Esposito—as the April 6 candidate filing deadline approached.

Nassau County GOP chair Joe Cairo and his allies gave themselves some extra time to settle on a standard-bearer by nominally tapping former Valley Stream Mayor John DeGrace. Politicos understood, though, that DeGrace would drop out so that they could give his spot on the June 23 primary ballot to someone else, under a New York law allowing for precisely such a switcheroo.

DeGrace did indeed depart the race on Thursday evening, meaning Cairo finally faced a drop-dead date to pick an alternative.

Driscoll, who was elected as Hempstead’s receiver of taxes in 2023, finally emerged as that alternative on Tuesday, the last possible day, and launched her bid with D’Esposito’s endorsement. Driscoll should have little trouble winning the GOP primary, but she now has less than seven months to organize a campaign to take on Gillen in what’s shaping up to be a tough year for Republicans.

Gillen, however, could still face a difficult campaign to keep the seat she flipped two years ago.

The congresswoman faces intraparty opposition from former Assemblymember Taylor Darling, who has faulted Gillen for being one of just seven Democrats to support a bill early this year that gave billions more to ICE. It remains to be seen, though, whether Darling, who began running in February, can put together a strong effort against the incumbent.

Driscoll also has reason to hope that Trump’s weak nationwide approval ratings won’t doom her. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and the rest of the Republican ticket decisively prevailed in last November’s countywide elections in what proved to be a rare bright spot for the GOP on an otherwise disastrous night.

Soon after he won a second term, Blakeman kicked off a bid for governor, and he’s now the presumptive GOP nominee to take on Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul. Despite his comfortable victory, Blakeman faces long odds in his quest to win in this heavily Democratic state, but he could prove to be an asset back home to Republicans like Driscoll.

Gillen’s team, though, thinks that voters won’t look so kindly on Driscoll’s connections to Cairo and the rest of the county GOP.

“Jeanine Driscoll has emerged from the shadows as the handpicked candidate of the Nassau GOP chair — not the voters,” her campaign said in a statement to Newsday. “Her participation in this sleazy and corrupt bait and switch is a clear indicator that Driscoll will continue to do the bidding of the bosses who anointed her.”

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The progressive landslide in Wisconsin

House

CA-14, TX-23

Both Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell and Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales submitted their resignations on Tuesday, with both taking effect that same day.

Later that same day, California Gov. Gavin Newsom scheduled the special election to replace Swalwell in the safely blue 14th District for Aug. 18, the soonest he could have called it. That means a first round of voting will take place on June 16—two weeks after the June 2 top-two primary for a full two-year term.

Unlike with regularly scheduled elections in California, it’s possible to avert a second round in a special election if the winning candidate takes a majority of the vote in the first round. However, nine candidates are currently running for a full term, so if all of them pile into the special, it’s unlikely anyone will clear 50% of the vote. Should this happen, the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, would advance to the second round.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, meanwhile, has yet to set an election to fill Gonzales’ vacant 23rd District. State law gives him great leeway, but if he refuses to act, a lawsuit could compel him to do so.

CA-40

Republican Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert, who are facing off in an incumbent vs. incumbent battle thanks to redistricting, are fighting over—what else?—which one of them truly loves Donald Trump the most.

Kim, according to Politico, is spending a hefty $3.7 million to make her case on the airwaves ahead of June’s top-two primary. In one new ad, a narrator touts her as “100% pro-Trump—the only candidate with a 100% voting record to prove it.” (No citations are offered on-screen.) The other blasts Calvert, saying he “voted with Pelosi over 5,000 times, sabotaging Trump’s agenda.”

The barrage comes in response to a campaign on behalf of Calvert by a group called Americans 4 Security PAC, which has so far spent $1.5 million on ads and mailers attacking Kim. In one spot, a voice-over calls her a “Trump-hating liberal” who “voted to censure Donald Trump, but voted against censoring Adam Schiff.” (We listened to the ad several times, and yes, the narrator saying “censoring.”)

CA-48

Outside groups are ramping up their spending in California’s open 48th District, a San Diego-area constituency that Democrats are keen to flip after redrawing it last year.

VoteVets, which supports progressive veterans, said on Tuesday that it would spend $225,000 to boost Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, touting his background as a Navy Reserve officer in a new ad.

The move comes in response to a $750,000 outlay from Democratic Majority for Israel, which began airing an ad last week accusing Campa-Najjar of flip-flopping on his views on Donald Trump and abortion, featuring clips of the candidate offering contradictory statements.

Meanwhile, another Democrat, San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, is getting help from Elect Democratic Women, a group founded by several women who currently serve or previously served in the House. The organization said on Tuesday it’s spending $290,000 on an ad that highlights von Wilpert’s background as an attorney and her work to protect abortion rights.

Several other Democrats are vying in June’s top-two primary, but none have been the target of any major third-party efforts so far. The main Republican running is San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who just earned Trump’s endorsement over minor GOP opposition on Tuesday.

GA-01, GA-10, NV-03, OH-01

Donald Trump issued a boatload of endorsements in House races on Tuesday, though only four of his newly blessed candidates have serious opposition in upcoming GOP primaries:

• GA-01: Insurance executive Jim Kingston, the son of former Rep. Jack Kingston, is squaring off against several other Republicans in the May 19 primary for Georgia’s open 1st District, including Chatham County Commissioner Patrick Farrell, Army veteran Brian Montgomery, far-right activist Kandiss Taylor. The race would go to a June 16 runoff if no one wins a majority.

• GA-10: State Rep. Houston Gaines faces just one major rival, wealthy businessman Ryan Millsap, as he seeks Georgia’s open 10th District.

• NV-03: Video game composer Marty O’Donnell, who’s back for a second try against Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in Nevada’s 3rd District, has three notable opponents in the June 9 primary: real estate agent Tera Anderson, former Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, and neurosurgeon Aury Nagy.

• OH-01: Air Force veteran Eric Conroy must first get past dentist Steven Erbeck before he can take on Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman in Ohio’s 1st District.

VA-07

Olivia Troye, a former national security advisor to Mike Pence who left the White House in 2020 to advocate against Donald Trump’s reelection, announced on Tuesday that she’d join the crowded Democratic primary for Virginia’s proposed 7th Congressional District.

Voting is already underway in the April 21 special election for a constitutional amendment that would allow the legislature to implement a new, Democratic-drawn congressional map. Among other things, that map would establish a blue-tilting 7th District without any incumbent, a prospect that has drawn a large number of notable Democrats to run for this prospective seat.

Legislatures

WI State Senate

The GOP’s already narrow path to holding its majority in the Wisconsin Senate grew even narrower on Tuesday when Sen. Jesse James announced that he would retire rather than continue his campaign against a fellow senator, Democrat Jeff Smith, for the redrawn constituency that includes both of their hometowns.

The 31st District in the Eau Claire area backed Kamala Harris by a tight 50-48 margin, making it one of four seats that both parties recognize as pivotal for control of the Senate. The party that wins three of these races is all but certain to win a majority in the chamber, which the GOP controls 18-15.

Three of these battleground districts, which were redrawn in 2024 after the state Supreme Court struck down the old GOP-drawn map, are held by Republicans, but now, just one will be defended by an incumbent.

The departures began in January, when Sen. Rob Hutton said that he wouldn’t seek a new four-year term in the 5th District, which is based in Waukesha County. The next month, another Republican, Sen. Van Wanggaard, announced he, too, would not run again for the 21st District in the southeastern part of the state.

By contrast, James, who was elected to a four-year term representing the old 23rd District in 2022, had initially announced last October that he’d take on Smith, who won the previous incarnation of the 31st that year. The Republican issued a defiant statement at the time, saying, “I’ve been through uphill battles my whole life, and I’m willing to take on challenges.”

That willingness had evidently faded by Tuesday, when James told his colleagues he wouldn’t seek reelection. Since Wisconsin’s candidate filing deadline isn’t until June 1, Republicans do have some time to recruit another candidate to take on Smith, though now he’s the only incumbent running.

One at-risk Republican is still standing firm—at least for now. On Monday, Sen. Howard Marklein said that he’d run once more in the 17th District, a constituency in the southwestern corner of the state that Harris carried by a single percentage point.

Three Democrats are competing in the Aug. 11 primary for the right to take on Marklein. The most prominent of the trio is state Rep. Jenna Jacobson, who has the Senate Democrats’ official campaign arm on her side.

The battle for the Senate is taking place amid a larger struggle this year in which total control of state government is up for grabs. Democrats are also working to flip the Assembly, where the GOP is sitting on a 54-45 advantage, while both sides are determined to win the race to replace Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who is retiring.

No matter what happens, though, the Badger State will have a completely different set of legislative leaders next year. Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said in February that he would not run again, while Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, a fellow Republican, said the next month that he also wouldn’t seek another term.

Poll Pile

• TX-Sen (R): co/efficient:

  • John Cornyn (inc): 44, Ken Paxton: 43.

  • Co/efficient says this poll was “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.”

• NE-Gov: Public Policy Polling for Lynne Walz:

  • Jim Pillen (R-inc): 38, Lynne Walz (D): 33, Rick Beard (Legal Marijuana Now): 12.

• LA-05 (R): Bedrock Polling for the Rainey Center Freedom Project:

  • Blake Miguez: 23, Michael Echols: 20, Rick Edmonds: 10, other candidates 3% or less, undecided: 42.

  • The Rainey Center does not appear to have endorsed a candidate, but the writeup for the poll is favorable to Echols.

  Correction: This story incorrectly stated how long it had been since a Republican last represented New York’s 4th Congressional District before Anthony D’Esposito won in 2022. D’Esposito was the district’s first Republican congressman in 26 years, not 16.