It's worth noting that Silver's first big success was in creating a predictive tool (PECOTA), which was pretty good, though of course such tools can only be so good as there's just too much data that simply can't be input into an algorithmic model.
I think he got pundit brain because he knows the model can only do so much. On top of that,…
It's worth noting that Silver's first big success was in creating a predictive tool (PECOTA), which was pretty good, though of course such tools can only be so good as there's just too much data that simply can't be input into an algorithmic model.
I think he got pundit brain because he knows the model can only do so much. On top of that, I think the model is just inputting garbage now (because polls are garbage, just universally).
Believe me, I'm aware of Silver's background. But the reason I've been skeptical of him pretty much since day 1 is that I think if you asked baseball scouts, managers, GM's and asked them to predict a player's performance, you'd get just as accurate of information
It's worth noting that Silver's first big success was in creating a predictive tool (PECOTA), which was pretty good, though of course such tools can only be so good as there's just too much data that simply can't be input into an algorithmic model.
I think he got pundit brain because he knows the model can only do so much. On top of that, I think the model is just inputting garbage now (because polls are garbage, just universally).
Believe me, I'm aware of Silver's background. But the reason I've been skeptical of him pretty much since day 1 is that I think if you asked baseball scouts, managers, GM's and asked them to predict a player's performance, you'd get just as accurate of information