Kim Reynolds deciding to not run for a third term was the best news I've heard on Friday. She almost lost her seat during the 2018 blue wave. I wonder what made her leave, did her husband's cancer come back?
Either way, good riddance. Maybe Iowans can flip that governor's seat and Ernst's seat but it's going to take the right candidate and political headwinds for that to happen.
Kim Reynolds deciding to not run for a third term was the best news I've heard on Friday. She almost lost her seat during the 2018 blue wave. I wonder what made her leave, did her husband's cancer come back?
Either way, good riddance. Maybe Iowans can flip that governor's seat and Ernst's seat but it's going to take the right candidate and political headwinds for that to happen.
The key question is: Does Reynolds dropping out of contention increase or decrease Democrats’ chance of acquiring the next lease on Iowa’s governor’s mansion?
I know federal and state races don't always correlate, but hard to see a state that went for Trump by 13% electing a D statewide absent a major scandal-plagued candidate.
Um, when he's not on the ballot (like in 2018) or termed out, Republicans don't turn out as often as angry Dems and independents do. The MAGA witch in the governor's mansion almost lost her seat in 2018.
Agreed. It’s why I still question the trend towards the GOP for Hispanic voters. They went for Hillary big in 2016 and only started “trending” after the rural-suburb realignment was already solidly happening. Hillary built a reputation with black and Hispanic voters and got us to peak Hispanic Dem. Trump epitomes the American Dream, even though it’s false. I feel like these voters are still very elastic and are very much candidate specific and not party specific.
You mean the fake Trump of The Apprentice in particular epitomizes the American dream, or is there another element of his propaganda that does so? Because as you said, it's fake. He instead inherited a huge amount of money and assets and squandered it.
Iowa is likely to be affected heavily, and in multiple ways, by the tariffs and decimation of the federal government. We've seen certain state legislature and House races becoming competitive again. Likely nominee Rob Sand has won statewide twice, although by small margins. I think it starts as Leans Republican, but I suspect it will move to Toss-Up status by the time the race settles later this year.
In MN, we have Farmfest and it’s a required campaign stop for Gov or Senate candidates with there being a debate/forum for them against their GOP opponent. The Star Tribune has their usual article about how it goes and the common theme is farmers are the toughest constituents bc you damn well better know the price of sugar beets and corn as of yesterday. You need to show up memorized on a whole lot of recent numbers and fit them into your answers at the candidate forum.
This is what legendarily took down our 2006 gubernatorial candidate. Political analysis says it’s untrue and it’s because the gov candidate called some media person a Republican whore a week before Election Day. But, that meltdown probably happened bc the Lt Gov candidate said she didn’t know what E85 is the week before that. E85 was “the new revolutionary” thing where we could substitute gasoline to fill our cars with mostly corn. I heard way more about that blunder of epic proportions vs the Gov candidate being mad about it. How did she not know about corn substituting gasoline?
All of this resulted in the GOP winning their only MN statewide office in 2006, which they haven’t done again since. They sneaked on by in a big Dem wave bc we imploded over corn and we still had a bullshit Independence Party that mostly stole votes from us.
I think it increases, probably not by much. By the time the 2026 midterms roll around next year, Iowan farmers are going to be hurting big time from the Trump tariffs. It doesn't matter how much money he throws at them.
I think her not running definitely increases Dems chances. Whoever the GOP nominates will be tied at the hip to the tariffs and DOGE, whether they like it or not. Reynolds has managed to distance herself from Trump a fair amount over the years and endorsed DeSantis, so she may be less weighed down by the backlash at the federal level than a new nominee will be.
Kim Reynolds deciding to not run for a third term was the best news I've heard on Friday. She almost lost her seat during the 2018 blue wave. I wonder what made her leave, did her husband's cancer come back?
Either way, good riddance. Maybe Iowans can flip that governor's seat and Ernst's seat but it's going to take the right candidate and political headwinds for that to happen.
The key question is: Does Reynolds dropping out of contention increase or decrease Democrats’ chance of acquiring the next lease on Iowa’s governor’s mansion?
I know federal and state races don't always correlate, but hard to see a state that went for Trump by 13% electing a D statewide absent a major scandal-plagued candidate.
Kelly won in Kansas in 2018 after the state went Republican by 20. So it can happen.
Um, when he's not on the ballot (like in 2018) or termed out, Republicans don't turn out as often as angry Dems and independents do. The MAGA witch in the governor's mansion almost lost her seat in 2018.
Agreed. It’s why I still question the trend towards the GOP for Hispanic voters. They went for Hillary big in 2016 and only started “trending” after the rural-suburb realignment was already solidly happening. Hillary built a reputation with black and Hispanic voters and got us to peak Hispanic Dem. Trump epitomes the American Dream, even though it’s false. I feel like these voters are still very elastic and are very much candidate specific and not party specific.
You mean the fake Trump of The Apprentice in particular epitomizes the American dream, or is there another element of his propaganda that does so? Because as you said, it's fake. He instead inherited a huge amount of money and assets and squandered it.
Iowa is likely to be affected heavily, and in multiple ways, by the tariffs and decimation of the federal government. We've seen certain state legislature and House races becoming competitive again. Likely nominee Rob Sand has won statewide twice, although by small margins. I think it starts as Leans Republican, but I suspect it will move to Toss-Up status by the time the race settles later this year.
In MN, we have Farmfest and it’s a required campaign stop for Gov or Senate candidates with there being a debate/forum for them against their GOP opponent. The Star Tribune has their usual article about how it goes and the common theme is farmers are the toughest constituents bc you damn well better know the price of sugar beets and corn as of yesterday. You need to show up memorized on a whole lot of recent numbers and fit them into your answers at the candidate forum.
This is what legendarily took down our 2006 gubernatorial candidate. Political analysis says it’s untrue and it’s because the gov candidate called some media person a Republican whore a week before Election Day. But, that meltdown probably happened bc the Lt Gov candidate said she didn’t know what E85 is the week before that. E85 was “the new revolutionary” thing where we could substitute gasoline to fill our cars with mostly corn. I heard way more about that blunder of epic proportions vs the Gov candidate being mad about it. How did she not know about corn substituting gasoline?
All of this resulted in the GOP winning their only MN statewide office in 2006, which they haven’t done again since. They sneaked on by in a big Dem wave bc we imploded over corn and we still had a bullshit Independence Party that mostly stole votes from us.
I think it increases, probably not by much. By the time the 2026 midterms roll around next year, Iowan farmers are going to be hurting big time from the Trump tariffs. It doesn't matter how much money he throws at them.
I think her not running definitely increases Dems chances. Whoever the GOP nominates will be tied at the hip to the tariffs and DOGE, whether they like it or not. Reynolds has managed to distance herself from Trump a fair amount over the years and endorsed DeSantis, so she may be less weighed down by the backlash at the federal level than a new nominee will be.
Could be that history will repeat itself with the last event that triggered a realignment toward Democrats in Iowa....a farm crisis.
That is quite possible! Iowa is mainly a farm-based state.