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Tim Nguyen's avatar

Lately there's been a flood of partisan polls being released, notably in PA. Almost all are Republican sponsored or conservative groups and they give Trump very generous results that border on outliers. This almost feels like 2022 deja vu esp in PA. Also this guy explains how ridiculously bad the Atlas polls are. The crosstabs are wonk with the most egregious findings including Trump winning the female vote in many swing states and somehow winning 47% of the black vote in PA. Yea so just a reminder, don't overreact to polls and treat them with a heavy grain of salt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sz-P4WWnqeQ

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Jonathan's avatar

This is common place now; I would ignore as much as you can

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sacman701's avatar

I omit GOP troll polls from the crude averages I post in these threads from time to time.

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

Too bad many pundits and so called experts like Nate Silver and RCP fall for these "data points" and use them to promote their sophistry. Not sure what can be done to counter this gaslighting.

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DiesIrae's avatar

Not too much, I think, other than proving them wrong. 2022 helped - the right-wing poll brigade failed miserably in so many races - and we'd better make 2024 the same story.

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sacman701's avatar

I don't think anything has to be done. If anything, having poll averages underestimate them may be pushing Dems to work harder.

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ArcticStones's avatar

We should recall that RCP’s Senate projection for the 2022 Midterm Elections was 53–54 Republican seats.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

As for Nate Silver, he isn’t "falling" for these extreme-R-leaning polls; he is making a conscious choice to include them as the results fit his increasingly Republican-tinged narrative. But then again, Nate is now in business with Peter Thiel.

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Paleo's avatar

If you just relied on Trafalgar, Walker, Oz, Masters and Laxalt would be in the senate today.

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

Also Lake and even Dixon may be governors. God that would be nightmarish.

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Jonathan's avatar

I enjoy your averaging the data and your omissions as well; thank you

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