Early Vote Update, as of 1pm: Total Early Votes: 1,429,586 • In-Person Early Votes: 346,609 • Mail Ballots Returned: 1,080,187.
Longshoremen’s strike ended thanks to pressure and great bridge-building by the Biden Administration! Next on Biden’s pre-election To-Do List: avoiding a full-scale war between Israel and Iran.
Early Vote Update, as of 1pm: Total Early Votes: 1,429,586 • In-Person Early Votes: 346,609 • Mail Ballots Returned: 1,080,187.
Longshoremen’s strike ended thanks to pressure and great bridge-building by the Biden Administration! Next on Biden’s pre-election To-Do List: avoiding a full-scale war between Israel and Iran.
I would like to make a couple of observations about Pennsylvania, where some of the data is rather striking. Democrats have requested 930,000 mail ballots compared to 408,000 for Republicans, and 171,000 for Independents. Most striking is that 7% of Democrats have already returned their mail ballots, while only 4.2% of Republicans have done so (4.1% for independents).
At least in Pennsylvania, Democrats appear to be heeding the advice to "vote as early as possible". This means Democrats account for 72.8% of votes so far, Republicans 19.4% and Indys 7.8%. In other words, early indications are that we appear to be banking an advantage.
I wouldn't read into the return rates at this stage, as some counties delivered ballots later than others and are processing intake at different rates. That's presumably why Philly and Montgomery are reporting returns above 20% while Bucks, Chester, and Delaware are close to zero. The largest Republican-leaning counties (Cumberland, Lancaster, Westmoreland, and York) have also yet to begin properly reporting, as have most rurals.
That said, the overall proportion of GOP-to-Dem ballot requests isn't that different from 2020 (~41% in 2020 vs ~44%) in 2024, which is encouraging. Philly requests are down quite a bit, but Allegheny and the Philly collar counties are picking up the slack.
I am a little worried about Philly dipping below 80% for Kamala and wouldn't be surprised if the western blue collar counties (Beaver, Washington, Westmoreland, etc.) trend right. But I'd also expect Kamala to build on Biden's margins Allegheny and the Philly suburbs and will be very curious to see how she performs in Cumberland and Lancaster. Those'll be my two must-watch counties on election night--strong performances there could go a long toward neutralizing slippage elsewhere.
Early Vote Update, as of 1pm: Total Early Votes: 1,429,586 • In-Person Early Votes: 346,609 • Mail Ballots Returned: 1,080,187.
Longshoremen’s strike ended thanks to pressure and great bridge-building by the Biden Administration! Next on Biden’s pre-election To-Do List: avoiding a full-scale war between Israel and Iran.
I would like to make a couple of observations about Pennsylvania, where some of the data is rather striking. Democrats have requested 930,000 mail ballots compared to 408,000 for Republicans, and 171,000 for Independents. Most striking is that 7% of Democrats have already returned their mail ballots, while only 4.2% of Republicans have done so (4.1% for independents).
At least in Pennsylvania, Democrats appear to be heeding the advice to "vote as early as possible". This means Democrats account for 72.8% of votes so far, Republicans 19.4% and Indys 7.8%. In other words, early indications are that we appear to be banking an advantage.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/
I wouldn't read into the return rates at this stage, as some counties delivered ballots later than others and are processing intake at different rates. That's presumably why Philly and Montgomery are reporting returns above 20% while Bucks, Chester, and Delaware are close to zero. The largest Republican-leaning counties (Cumberland, Lancaster, Westmoreland, and York) have also yet to begin properly reporting, as have most rurals.
That said, the overall proportion of GOP-to-Dem ballot requests isn't that different from 2020 (~41% in 2020 vs ~44%) in 2024, which is encouraging. Philly requests are down quite a bit, but Allegheny and the Philly collar counties are picking up the slack.
I am a little worried about Philly dipping below 80% for Kamala and wouldn't be surprised if the western blue collar counties (Beaver, Washington, Westmoreland, etc.) trend right. But I'd also expect Kamala to build on Biden's margins Allegheny and the Philly suburbs and will be very curious to see how she performs in Cumberland and Lancaster. Those'll be my two must-watch counties on election night--strong performances there could go a long toward neutralizing slippage elsewhere.
Bucks County is also an important bellwether county.
Yes. A propos of that: https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/04/how-the-white-house-ended-the-port-strike/
Said Zients: “I need the offer today — not tomorrow. Today. I’m going to brief the president in an hour that you believe you can get this done today.”