I wouldn't read into the return rates at this stage, as some counties delivered ballots later than others and are processing intake at different rates. That's presumably why Philly and Montgomery are reporting returns above 20% while Bucks, Chester, and Delaware are close to zero. The largest Republican-leaning counties (Cumberland, Lanc…
I wouldn't read into the return rates at this stage, as some counties delivered ballots later than others and are processing intake at different rates. That's presumably why Philly and Montgomery are reporting returns above 20% while Bucks, Chester, and Delaware are close to zero. The largest Republican-leaning counties (Cumberland, Lancaster, Westmoreland, and York) have also yet to begin properly reporting, as have most rurals.
That said, the overall proportion of GOP-to-Dem ballot requests isn't that different from 2020 (~41% in 2020 vs ~44%) in 2024, which is encouraging. Philly requests are down quite a bit, but Allegheny and the Philly collar counties are picking up the slack.
I am a little worried about Philly dipping below 80% for Kamala and wouldn't be surprised if the western blue collar counties (Beaver, Washington, Westmoreland, etc.) trend right. But I'd also expect Kamala to build on Biden's margins Allegheny and the Philly suburbs and will be very curious to see how she performs in Cumberland and Lancaster. Those'll be my two must-watch counties on election night--strong performances there could go a long toward neutralizing slippage elsewhere.
I wouldn't read into the return rates at this stage, as some counties delivered ballots later than others and are processing intake at different rates. That's presumably why Philly and Montgomery are reporting returns above 20% while Bucks, Chester, and Delaware are close to zero. The largest Republican-leaning counties (Cumberland, Lancaster, Westmoreland, and York) have also yet to begin properly reporting, as have most rurals.
That said, the overall proportion of GOP-to-Dem ballot requests isn't that different from 2020 (~41% in 2020 vs ~44%) in 2024, which is encouraging. Philly requests are down quite a bit, but Allegheny and the Philly collar counties are picking up the slack.
I am a little worried about Philly dipping below 80% for Kamala and wouldn't be surprised if the western blue collar counties (Beaver, Washington, Westmoreland, etc.) trend right. But I'd also expect Kamala to build on Biden's margins Allegheny and the Philly suburbs and will be very curious to see how she performs in Cumberland and Lancaster. Those'll be my two must-watch counties on election night--strong performances there could go a long toward neutralizing slippage elsewhere.
Bucks County is also an important bellwether county.