GOP requests have been relatively backloaded (e.g. they requested 3,000 more ballots than Democrats yesterday), so I wouldn't be surprised if their returns ramp up from next week onward. That said, they have a steep path toward achieving return rate parity. The first stretch of counting has gone as well as possible.
Yesterday was the second day Republicans led in requests. Last Tuesday was a R+220 day. I wouldn't be shocked if most or all of the advantage from yesterday was from the Oaks, PA rally/dance party.
Republicans had their best net requests day ever: R+2997. The overall request advantage is now D+525,358. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh & Suburbs) has hit 100k returned ballots while Philadelphia has hit 85k. Both counties are at or near 50% of returned Dem requests but many counties are lagging behind. The firewall growth will eventually slow down but probably not for another week.
"If you're wondering why the return rate edge continues to creep up (for now) + big firewall spikes, the GOP is now trailing behind by up to 10% in large counties with the most R ballots like Allegheny, Montgomery, Bucks, etc. In the rurals, 5-7% behind is more common."
Absolutely. To have the request advantage is one thing...to have the current firewall be almost half that number is another. There is an enthusiasm gap out there.
Another factor as to why I don't believe the firewall increase will slow down soon is that some medium sized counties are way, way behind. Erie isn't at 1,000 returned ballots out of 35k requests. Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) isn't at 100 ballots out of 40k requests. Both of those counties have a roughly D+11k request advantage each. York isn't at 20% returns yet.
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY VOTE UPDATE
📥 631,725 votes cast
– 🔵 DEM: 416,239 - 40.6% returned
– 🔴 GOP: 158,486 - 31.8% returned
– 🟡 IND: 57,000 - 27.6% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 65.9% / 🔴 25.1% / 🟡 9%
🔷 DEM firewall: +257,753
📈 Return Edge: D+8.8
https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq/status/1846547227788853730#m
(McDonald’s Election Project update for Pennsylvania is lagging, still at 415k.)
We seem to be adding to the firewall by about 30k each day.
I’d expect that to slow a bit but it’s an excellent start
GOP requests have been relatively backloaded (e.g. they requested 3,000 more ballots than Democrats yesterday), so I wouldn't be surprised if their returns ramp up from next week onward. That said, they have a steep path toward achieving return rate parity. The first stretch of counting has gone as well as possible.
Yesterday was the second day Republicans led in requests. Last Tuesday was a R+220 day. I wouldn't be shocked if most or all of the advantage from yesterday was from the Oaks, PA rally/dance party.
Republicans had their best net requests day ever: R+2997. The overall request advantage is now D+525,358. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh & Suburbs) has hit 100k returned ballots while Philadelphia has hit 85k. Both counties are at or near 50% of returned Dem requests but many counties are lagging behind. The firewall growth will eventually slow down but probably not for another week.
VoteHub has been updated. https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker
(Not affiliated with them but they're the best interactive resource)
Many thanks! I was not aware of this website.
"If you're wondering why the return rate edge continues to creep up (for now) + big firewall spikes, the GOP is now trailing behind by up to 10% in large counties with the most R ballots like Allegheny, Montgomery, Bucks, etc. In the rurals, 5-7% behind is more common."
– Joshua Smithley
Absolutely. To have the request advantage is one thing...to have the current firewall be almost half that number is another. There is an enthusiasm gap out there.
Another factor as to why I don't believe the firewall increase will slow down soon is that some medium sized counties are way, way behind. Erie isn't at 1,000 returned ballots out of 35k requests. Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) isn't at 100 ballots out of 40k requests. Both of those counties have a roughly D+11k request advantage each. York isn't at 20% returns yet.
If we can keep Lancaster and York Counties relatively close, it's a good sign for us in November.
Won't the margins slow and narrow for the mail ballots but then expand again as actual early vote sites open up??