"If you're wondering why the return rate edge continues to creep up (for now) + big firewall spikes, the GOP is now trailing behind by up to 10% in large counties with the most R ballots like Allegheny, Montgomery, Bucks, etc. In the rurals, 5-7% behind is more common."
"If you're wondering why the return rate edge continues to creep up (for now) + big firewall spikes, the GOP is now trailing behind by up to 10% in large counties with the most R ballots like Allegheny, Montgomery, Bucks, etc. In the rurals, 5-7% behind is more common."
Absolutely. To have the request advantage is one thing...to have the current firewall be almost half that number is another. There is an enthusiasm gap out there.
Another factor as to why I don't believe the firewall increase will slow down soon is that some medium sized counties are way, way behind. Erie isn't at 1,000 returned ballots out of 35k requests. Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) isn't at 100 ballots out of 40k requests. Both of those counties have a roughly D+11k request advantage each. York isn't at 20% returns yet.
"If you're wondering why the return rate edge continues to creep up (for now) + big firewall spikes, the GOP is now trailing behind by up to 10% in large counties with the most R ballots like Allegheny, Montgomery, Bucks, etc. In the rurals, 5-7% behind is more common."
– Joshua Smithley
Absolutely. To have the request advantage is one thing...to have the current firewall be almost half that number is another. There is an enthusiasm gap out there.
Another factor as to why I don't believe the firewall increase will slow down soon is that some medium sized counties are way, way behind. Erie isn't at 1,000 returned ballots out of 35k requests. Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) isn't at 100 ballots out of 40k requests. Both of those counties have a roughly D+11k request advantage each. York isn't at 20% returns yet.
If we can keep Lancaster and York Counties relatively close, it's a good sign for us in November.