you don’t need to take only Gallup’s words. Here is Rep. Strategist Margret Hoover on CNN “I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign amongst the operatives that actually really do know the political wherewithal, the turnout and enthusiasm numbers aren’t where they need to be.”
Questionably regarding horserace politics. If one takes their recent measures of party ID than Republican advantages there might cancel out greater Democratic enthusiasm --but their party ID numbers have yo-yoed so much lately for no apparent reason (and often been redder than in probably any credible nonpartisan poll) that I can't take them seriously on that question. (Imagine if they were still directly polling the presidential horserace...)
But from reports from around the country they may be right, or at least in the ballpark, regarding greater Democratic enthusiasm. Which would of course be great, but we'll need to run well among "independents" (which can of course mean almost anything) in swing states to seal the deal.
And maybe there isn't a Republican party ID advantage. Gallup suddenly bounced in our direction, with a 48 D-47 R showing for October 14-27. By contrast, it was 49 R-42 D for October 1-12.
From my standpoint, I respect Gallup’s polling although if we’re talking about voter enthusiasm being higher than in 2008 I think that’s a stretch.
2008 was in a less polarized environment and Obama was a once-in-a-lifetime presidential candidate who had universal appeal that I believe Kamala Harris, with all due respect, doesn’t have as much. 2024 is in a more polarized environment so enthusiasm toward Harris, while I don’t doubt is high, is in light of the fact that Biden dropped his presidential bid. This is a much different circumstance.
Anyway, I’d exercise caution regarding comparing voter enthusiasm of 2024 vs 2008.
Cool, but is any of Gallup's polling credible?
you don’t need to take only Gallup’s words. Here is Rep. Strategist Margret Hoover on CNN “I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign amongst the operatives that actually really do know the political wherewithal, the turnout and enthusiasm numbers aren’t where they need to be.”
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/there-is-concern-at-the-trump-campaign-veteran-gop-strategist-says-internal-polling-is-giving-them-pause/
Republicans are usually all bluster so this may be a canary in the coalmine of what is to come
I think she’s a never trumpet
And also happens to be the wife of NY-01 Democratic Candidate John Avlon.
Questionably regarding horserace politics. If one takes their recent measures of party ID than Republican advantages there might cancel out greater Democratic enthusiasm --but their party ID numbers have yo-yoed so much lately for no apparent reason (and often been redder than in probably any credible nonpartisan poll) that I can't take them seriously on that question. (Imagine if they were still directly polling the presidential horserace...)
But from reports from around the country they may be right, or at least in the ballpark, regarding greater Democratic enthusiasm. Which would of course be great, but we'll need to run well among "independents" (which can of course mean almost anything) in swing states to seal the deal.
I’ll see your Republican ID advantages and raise you Democratic-leaning Independents & millions of pissed-of women voters (including GOP women).
And maybe there isn't a Republican party ID advantage. Gallup suddenly bounced in our direction, with a 48 D-47 R showing for October 14-27. By contrast, it was 49 R-42 D for October 1-12.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
What happened to cause such a shift? Probably nothing--and their early October figure was likely well off base.
Biggest horserace polling memory of them is them being bullish on Romney in 2012.
Gallup stopped doing horserace polling years ago.
From my standpoint, I respect Gallup’s polling although if we’re talking about voter enthusiasm being higher than in 2008 I think that’s a stretch.
2008 was in a less polarized environment and Obama was a once-in-a-lifetime presidential candidate who had universal appeal that I believe Kamala Harris, with all due respect, doesn’t have as much. 2024 is in a more polarized environment so enthusiasm toward Harris, while I don’t doubt is high, is in light of the fact that Biden dropped his presidential bid. This is a much different circumstance.
Anyway, I’d exercise caution regarding comparing voter enthusiasm of 2024 vs 2008.