Questionably regarding horserace politics. If one takes their recent measures of party ID than Republican advantages there might cancel out greater Democratic enthusiasm --but their party ID numbers have yo-yoed so much lately for no apparent reason (and often been redder than in probably any credible nonpartisan poll) that I can't take …
Questionably regarding horserace politics. If one takes their recent measures of party ID than Republican advantages there might cancel out greater Democratic enthusiasm --but their party ID numbers have yo-yoed so much lately for no apparent reason (and often been redder than in probably any credible nonpartisan poll) that I can't take them seriously on that question. (Imagine if they were still directly polling the presidential horserace...)
But from reports from around the country they may be right, or at least in the ballpark, regarding greater Democratic enthusiasm. Which would of course be great, but we'll need to run well among "independents" (which can of course mean almost anything) in swing states to seal the deal.
And maybe there isn't a Republican party ID advantage. Gallup suddenly bounced in our direction, with a 48 D-47 R showing for October 14-27. By contrast, it was 49 R-42 D for October 1-12.
Questionably regarding horserace politics. If one takes their recent measures of party ID than Republican advantages there might cancel out greater Democratic enthusiasm --but their party ID numbers have yo-yoed so much lately for no apparent reason (and often been redder than in probably any credible nonpartisan poll) that I can't take them seriously on that question. (Imagine if they were still directly polling the presidential horserace...)
But from reports from around the country they may be right, or at least in the ballpark, regarding greater Democratic enthusiasm. Which would of course be great, but we'll need to run well among "independents" (which can of course mean almost anything) in swing states to seal the deal.
I’ll see your Republican ID advantages and raise you Democratic-leaning Independents & millions of pissed-of women voters (including GOP women).
And maybe there isn't a Republican party ID advantage. Gallup suddenly bounced in our direction, with a 48 D-47 R showing for October 14-27. By contrast, it was 49 R-42 D for October 1-12.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
What happened to cause such a shift? Probably nothing--and their early October figure was likely well off base.