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Leading Off
MO-02
The Congressional Leadership Fund just made a late $650,000 ad buy to help Rep. Ann Wagner, whom Republicans hadn’t treated as vulnerable until now, at the same time as a new Democratic poll shows the longtime congresswoman trailing her Democratic opponent.
That survey, conducted by Public Policy Polling for the House Majority PAC, finds Army veteran and podcaster Fred Wellman with a 46-45 edge on Wagner in Missouri’s 2nd District. There’s been no other recent polling of the race, but CLF’s latest move indicates it’s seeing similar numbers.
What’s especially notable about the group’s new investment, which was flagged by Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick, is that Wagner’s district, based in the St. Louis suburbs, voted for Donald Trump by a 53-45 margin in 2024.
Missouri Republicans telegraphed some concern about their hold on the 2nd District when they sought to make it safer under the newly gerrymandered map they passed last year. That version would have supported Trump 55-43, according to calculations by The Downballot.
That map, however, is on hold pending a referendum next month that could repeal it permanently, meaning Wagner must defend the less-red configuration against Wellman this year. The redistricting saga, though, may have made matters worse for her.