Morning Digest: GOP-linked group is meddling in a new Democratic primary

An obscure group is spending in Maine congressional race as Democrats decry its involvement in New Jersey

State Sen. Joe Baldacci, Democratic candidate for Congress in Maine. (Credit: Joe Baldacci Facebook)

Leading Off

ME-02, NJ-07

An obscure group Democrats suspect is a Republican meddling operation is now getting involved in the June 9 Democratic primary for a competitive open House seat in Maine.

Real Change PAC is spending at least $300,000 on independent expenditures promoting state Auditor Matt Dunlap and attacking state Sen. Joe Baldacci, the candidate backed by prominent national Democrats. The organization, whose involvement was first flagged by CNN’s Patrick Svitek, has not made its ads publicly available as of Wednesday evening.

Baldacci, Dunlap, and two other Democrats—former congressional staffer Jordan Wood and social worker Paige Loud—are running to replace Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, who is not seeking reelection in Maine’s 2nd District. The Democratic nominee will face former Gov. Paul LePage, who has no opposition for the Republican nomination, to defend a constituency Donald Trump carried in all three of his campaigns.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee believes Baldacci, the brother of former Gov. John Baldacci, is the best candidate for what will be a challenging general election, and it added him to its Red to Blue program earlier this month. Baldacci has also benefited from about $500,000 in outside support from a group affiliated with the Democratic opposition research giant American Bridge.

Real Change’s spending against Baldacci comes as that same group continues to air ads attacking Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett ahead of next week’s Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey’s 7th District.

While there’s still no word on who is funding this PAC, whose barebones website claims it’s devoted to “electing grassroots candidates who are committed to progressive values,” Democrats believe it has a very different purpose.

The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC last week highlighted that the mail firm for Real Change shares a Wyoming address and agent with the one working for “Lead Left,” another ostensibly progressive PAC that just about everyone agrees is a Republican front group.

That case got even stronger on Wednesday when journalist Judd Legum reported in Popular Information that Lead Left has connections to the treasurer of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the largest pro-Republican House super PAC.

But while there’s no information about who is running or funding Real Change—the Portland Press Herald says it “has a Gmail address that doesn’t work and a treasurer with no clear political history or easy-to-identify footprint”—its targets are treating it as another Republican operation.

Bennett is countering the group’s attacks with her own commercials declaring, “MAGA is spending big, spreading lies about Rebecca Bennett because they know she’s the only Democrat who can stop Donald Trump.”

New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill on Wednesday also warned Democratic voters that “Republican dark money groups” were getting involved in both the 7th District as well as the primary for the safely Democratic 12th District. (See the NJ-12 item below for more on that contest.) Sherrill has not taken sides in either primary.

Baldacci’s team, likewise, argued to the Bangor Daily News that he was being attacked because “Washington Republicans know Joe Baldacci is the one candidate who can beat Paul LePage and hold Trump accountable.”

Baldacci and Bennett, though, are unlikely to be the last Democratic primary candidates to face such challenges.

Phil Gardner of Blue Dog Action PAC, which just helped Texas Democrat Johnny Garcia overcome Lead Left’s attempt to prop up his antisemitic primary opponent, told Politico last week he’s urging other candidates to be prepared for GOP interference. Gardner warned that Democrats in upcoming primaries should “budget as if a million might appear in the last week or two to support your opponent.”

Election Recaps

TX Railroad Commission

Far-right extremist Bo French has unseated Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright in the Republican primary runoff, the Associated Press projected Wednesday. French, whose campaign was defined by Islamophobia and his call for the deportation of 100 million people, will face Democratic state Rep. Jon Rosenthal in the general election.

Republicans have controlled all three seats on the Texas Railroad Commission, an influential three-member body that regulates the oil and gas industry, since the 1994 election. Democrats have made serious efforts in recent years to win a statewide race for this panel (which hasn’t had any jurisdiction over train travel since 2005), but they’ve always fallen short.

Democrats, though, hope that French, whom Republican Gov. Greg Abbott said last week “doesn’t know anything about oil and gas,” will give them a better chance to achieve a long-sought breakthrough.

Senate

MN-Sen

Democratic Rep. Angie Craig said Wednesday that she would not compete at this weekend’s party convention and would instead focus on the August primary.

Craig’s decision all but assures Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, whose strength with progressive activists already put her in a strong spot going into the gathering, will capture the party endorsement. This will, among other things, allow Flanagan to use the party’s voter file, but unlike in many other states, the convention has no impact on ballot access.

House

CA-40

A little-known group with ties to Republicans has spent over $600,000 to promote Democrat Esther Kim Varet in next week’s top-two primary for California’s 40th District, but it’s not clear what its motives are.

Most of the focus on the race for this constituency, which Democratic mapmakers made more conservative to strengthen Democrats in other Southern California seats, has been on the titanic clash between Republican Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim.

Kim Varet, the owner of a chain of art galleries, and four other Democrats are also on the ballot, but they’ll have a tough task advancing to the general election—much less winning—in a district Donald Trump would have carried 55-42.

But an outfit called “California Blue,” which Punchbowl News’ Ally Mutnick reports has connections to other entities that have been meddling in Democratic primaries, is taking action to boost Varet. The group is airing ads promoting Varet and pledging she’ll “really fight against Donald Trump and MAGA extremists.”

California Blue’s ultimate goal, though, remains mysterious. The organization may be taking action to help Varet deprive either Calvert or Kim of a place in the general election, but there’s no way to know which Republican it could favor. Indeed, Mutnick characterizes California Blue, which only formed last month, as “untraceable.”

Most of the third-party spending in this contest, however, has gone toward promoting or attacking one of the two GOP representatives.

Outside groups have spent over $4.5 million to attack Kim or promote Calvert, compared to another $1.2 million for Kim’s side. The congresswoman’s campaign, though, has spent considerably more money than Calvert’s in the lead-up to the top-two primary.

Two organizations are responsible for the vast majority of the anti-Kim spending: Americans 4 Security, funded by major defense contractors, and California Conservatives PAC, which received its money through former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s network.

Calvert chairs the powerful House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, so it’s hardly a surprise that Americans 4 Security’s backers want to help him in his time of need. But it’s not clear why McCarthy or his inner circle, whose involvement was first flagged by analyst Rob Pyers, feels a need to take sides in this intraparty clash.

CO-08

Marine veteran Evan Munsing said Wednesday that he was dropping out of the June 30 Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Gabe Evans in Colorado’s swingy 8th District. Munsing did not endorse either former state Rep. Shannon Bird or state Rep. Manny Rutinel, the final two Democratic candidates running in what had once been a packed nomination contest.

FL-24

Speculation about Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson’s plans intensified again on Wednesday when state Sen. Shevrin Jones said he was ending his own reelection campaign—an announcement that came one day after Jones said he was interested in running for Congress should the 83-year-old incumbent retire.

Wilson, for her part, said later that day she’ll make a “special announcement” on Friday at a ceremony renaming a street in Miami Gardens for her.

Jones, who would be the first openly gay person to represent Florida in the nation’s capital, did not mention a possible congressional campaign in his video about his upcoming departure from the legislature, but he still hinted he was looking at higher office. The senator told his audience, “While one chapter of service may be coming to a close in my life, I believe another chapter may just be beginning.”

Physician Rudy Moise, meanwhile, said Wednesday he would run for the 24th Congressional District, a move that came the day after he ended his campaign for the neighboring 20th District. Moise lost to Wilson in both the 2010 and 2012 primaries for prior versions of this safely Democratic constituency.

NJ-12

New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill on Wednesday drew attention to a conservative group’s attacks on Sue Altman, the former head of the state affiliate of the national Working Families Party, ahead of next week’s Democratic primary for the safely blue 12th Congressional District.

“Republicans should stay out of Democratic primaries as we head to the June 2 elections,” the governor said in a statement shared by the New Jersey Globe where she denounced conservative-linked groups for interfering in the Democratic primaries for the 12th District and the swingy 7th District. (See the lead item for more on the latter.) Sherrill has not taken sides in either contest.

Altman is the target of at least $265,000 in outside spending by the Florence Avenue Initiative, an outfit with ties to Republicans. The Globe’s Joey Fox notes that FAI sent out mailers attacking Sherrill ahead of last year’s Democratic primary for governor that accused her of having “Stood against Jewish New Jersey Families.”

The group is now going after Altman, who in 2024 unsuccessfully challenged Republican Rep. Tom Kean in the neighboring 7th District. FAI has distributed mailers accusing Altman of having “flip-flopped” on Israel and other issues, and casting her as someone “not from our district.”

Fox, though, writes that it’s not clear why Altman, who is one of the 12 Democrats competing to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, is being attacked. Altman, who has long been a prominent progressive figure in state politics, said she wasn’t sure either, telling Fox, “I have a LONG list of enemies.”

FAI’s offensive, though, represents just a fraction of the outside spending in this race.

Physician Adam Hamawy has benefited from around $1.6 million in support from American Priorities, an organization Semafor has characterized as the “anti-AIPAC PAC.” ​​Hamawy, who has outraised each of his 11 rivals, is also getting another $200,000 in support from the Justice Democrats.

The only other notable third-party spending has come from a group called the Servant-Leader Fund, which has spent about $170,000 to promote Somerset County Commissioner Shanel Robinson.

Ballot Measures

LA Ballot

Louisiana’s Republican-dominated legislature this week placed an amendment on the Nov. 3 ballot that would limit governors to two lifetime terms, a change the state’s only living Democratic governor suggested was targeting him in particular.

“I think this is what the kids call ‘living in somebody’s head rent free,’” John Bel Edwards, who led the state from 2016 to 2024, wrote Tuesday in a tweet that ended with an emoji of a smiling face with sunglasses.

The state currently prohibits governors from serving more than two consecutive terms, but they may return after a term has elapsed. The late Democrat Edwin Edwards (no relation to the other Gov. Edwards) took advantage of this rule in 1983 when he successfully challenged David Treen, the Republican elected to succeed him four years before.

John Bel Edwards has not publicly expressed interest in trying the same maneuver next year by taking on Republican Gov. Jeff Landry, but he also hasn’t ruled it out. Edwards told Louisiana State University students in February, “I’m not interested in being in Congress, now and probably ever, but I won’t say that I’ll never run for public office again.”

If Louisianans approve this amendment in the fall, however, Edwards would be one of the two living ex-governors barred from regaining their old office. But Republican Bobby Jindal, who immediately preceded Edwards, appears to be done with electoral politics following his disastrous 2016 presidential campaign.

Poll Pile

• AL-Sen (R): Pulse Decision Science for the Club for Growth (pro-Barry Moore):

  • Barry Moore: 53, Jared Hudson: 36.

• ME-Sen: University of New Hampshire:

  • Graham Platner (D): 51, Susan Collins (R-inc): 42.

  • Feb.: 49-38 Platner.

• ME-Gov (D): UNH:

  • Troy Jackson: 28, Nirav Shah: 28, Shenna Bellows: 13, Hannah Pingree: 12, Angus King III: 7.

  • Feb.: Shah: 25, Bellows: 19, Jackson: 16, Pingree: 10, King: 5.

• ME-Gov (R): UNH:

  • Bobby Charles: 37, Jonathan Bush: 18, Ben Midgley: 11, Garrett Mason: 9, David Jones: 7, Robert Wessels: 6, Owen McCarthy: 2.

  • Feb.: Charles: 28, Mason: 12, Jones: 7, Midgley: 6, Bush: 5, Wessels: 4, McCarthy: 1.

• NM-Gov (R): Public Opinion Strategies for No Doubt About It:

  • Gregg Hull: 33, Doug Turner: 30, Duke Rodriguez: 12.

  • No Doubt About It is a podcast co-hosted by Mark Ronchetti, the 2022 Republican nominee for governor.

• CT-01 (D): Global Strategy Group for VoteVets (pro-Luke Bronin)

  • Luke Bronin: 38, John Larson (inc): 30, Jillian Gilchrest: 10, Ruth Fortune: 4.

• FL-13: Public Policy Polling for Leela Gray:

  • Anna Paulina Luna (R-inc): 41, Leela Gray (D): 39.

Editor’s Note: The most recent Digest incorrectly said a federal appeals court blocked Alabama’s new map; the decision came from a three-judge panel.

In the most recent Digest, the write-up for the poll of the Democratic primary for Maine governor also incorrectly identified Nirav Shah as “Amish Shah.” Amish Shah is a candidate for Congress in Arizona.