We will get our final pre-recount results for WA land commissioner this evening. We got updates from 20 of the state's 39 counties yesterday, adding 5852 votes and reducing Dem Upthegrove's lead from 951 to 192. As I feared, Stevens County came through for GOPer Pederson with significantly more ballots than they'd estimated. Upthegrove o…
We will get our final pre-recount results for WA land commissioner this evening. We got updates from 20 of the state's 39 counties yesterday, adding 5852 votes and reducing Dem Upthegrove's lead from 951 to 192. As I feared, Stevens County came through for GOPer Pederson with significantly more ballots than they'd estimated. Upthegrove owes almost half of his remaining lead to an unexpectedly good result from Whatcom, where he leads by 2%, yet he won the update 27%-14%.
19 counties estimate 1420 outstanding votes, but I expect somewhere from 2500 to 3500 will be counted across the state today. An extrapolation of those outstanding votes would net Pederson 123 votes:
With Benton set to cut Upthegrove's lead in half on its own (and I suspect they'll do worse than that), this is set to be a nailbiter till the end. Upthegrove will need King County to come through and pad his lead, and he may require an unexpectedly positive result, like he got in Whatcom yesterday, in order to pull this off. Top 2 needs to go, or at the very least have the primary converted to ranked-choice.
Right now the lead goes as low as literally 30 votes, with 897 reported to count. Using the same extrapolation in your list, I got Upthegrove gaining 10 in the remaining. So at a 40 vote lead.
Of course assuming the reported remaining numbers are correct. Most time it seems the counties underestimated how many can be cured and counted.
11 counties haven't updated yesterday or so far today, and they're the likeliest to be off from the estimate. Among them, only Cowlitz (31%-7% Pederson) and Jefferson (26%-13% Upthegrove) don't have estimates, and they're among the biggest X-factors left.
The official count is down to a whopping 6 votes?! I think the extrapolation based on known estimates of remaining ballots, stays about Upthegrove +40ish. Yeah, the counties with unknown remaining numbers…
At the moment, Upthegrove's lead is 46 votes with an estimated 902 ballots left to count. Of those 902, the majority will go to candidates other than Peterson and Upthegrove. It will be close. The final will certainly meet the requirements for a machine recount. To meet the requirements of a required manual recount, the lead must be less than 150 votes. https://www.sos.wa.gov/recounts-washington-state
King County finalized its votes, putting Upthegrove ahead by 81 votes with an estimated 65 left to count. Subject to the recount, the Dems seem to have avoided a lock-out in this top-two primary.
Assuming the margin is under 150 votes, there will be a mandatory hand recount with observers. I don't believe that previously rejected ballots are reviewed, but I'm not certain on that point.
King County finalized its votes, putting Upthegrove ahead by 81 votes with an estimated 65 left to count. Subject to the recount, the Dems seem to have avoided a lock-out in this top-two primary.
We will get our final pre-recount results for WA land commissioner this evening. We got updates from 20 of the state's 39 counties yesterday, adding 5852 votes and reducing Dem Upthegrove's lead from 951 to 192. As I feared, Stevens County came through for GOPer Pederson with significantly more ballots than they'd estimated. Upthegrove owes almost half of his remaining lead to an unexpectedly good result from Whatcom, where he leads by 2%, yet he won the update 27%-14%.
A summary of yesterday's updates:
Whatcom: 699 votes, +92 net
King: 323, +56
San Juan: 100, +17
Snohomish, Thurston, Clark, Mason, Kitsap, Okanogan, Clallam, Klickitat, Wahkiakum, Pend Oreille: 1200, -18
Skamania: 113, -11
Kittitas: 345, -22
Lincoln: 68, -23
Spokane: 225, -44
Franklin: 192, -47
Lewis: 206, -56
Stevens: 2381, -703
19 counties estimate 1420 outstanding votes, but I expect somewhere from 2500 to 3500 will be counted across the state today. An extrapolation of those outstanding votes would net Pederson 123 votes:
King: 300, +68
Clallam, Skagit, Walla Walla, Asotin, Stevens, Whitman, Pacific, Island, Ferry, Grant, Garfield, Pierce, Grays Harbor, Kitsap: 338, -40
Douglas: 60, -11
Chelan: 225, -13
Yakima: 120, -29
Benton: 377, -97
With Benton set to cut Upthegrove's lead in half on its own (and I suspect they'll do worse than that), this is set to be a nailbiter till the end. Upthegrove will need King County to come through and pad his lead, and he may require an unexpectedly positive result, like he got in Whatcom yesterday, in order to pull this off. Top 2 needs to go, or at the very least have the primary converted to ranked-choice.
Thanks for doing the muscle work
Nothing like a nail biter Top 2 primary...
This is so good. I tweeted out a link https://x.com/downballotnews/status/1825918925973914074
Reads to me like we're unfortunately more likely than not to be just barely shut out of the top two.
Hopefully I'm wrong and Upthegrove hangs in there.
Within 100 votes?
There's a pretty good chance of it. With Upthegrove and Pederson finishing near 400k votes!
Right now the lead goes as low as literally 30 votes, with 897 reported to count. Using the same extrapolation in your list, I got Upthegrove gaining 10 in the remaining. So at a 40 vote lead.
Of course assuming the reported remaining numbers are correct. Most time it seems the counties underestimated how many can be cured and counted.
11 counties haven't updated yesterday or so far today, and they're the likeliest to be off from the estimate. Among them, only Cowlitz (31%-7% Pederson) and Jefferson (26%-13% Upthegrove) don't have estimates, and they're among the biggest X-factors left.
The official count is down to a whopping 6 votes?! I think the extrapolation based on known estimates of remaining ballots, stays about Upthegrove +40ish. Yeah, the counties with unknown remaining numbers…
Pederson's got a lead now, so it's down to King to pull Upthegrove across the line.
Oy!
We're down to probably only King, Walla Walla, and Whitman having outstanding votes, and the projection has Upthegrove by 2 votes lol.
And King did its job!
Thanks for your work
Update thread:
9AM PDT:
Lewis and Skamania finalized, positive results
Garfield +10 votes, estimate -9, net 0, positive result (net 2 better than expected)
Currently Upthegrove +192, projection Upthegrove +72
9:30AM:
Pacific increases estimate by 54, negative result
Currently Upthegrove +192, projection Upthegrove +66
10AM:
Pend Oreille adds 1 for Pederson, negative result (net 1 worse than expected)
San Juan finalized, negative result
Adams adds 38 votes, net -11, negative result (net 11 worse than expected)
Currently Upthegrove +180, projection Upthegrove +54 (uses rounded figures)
10:30AM:
Benton adds 376 votes, estimate -377, net -91, positive result (net 6 better than expected and removes biggest X-factor)
Kitsap adds 1 vote, estimate -1, net 0, neutral result
Douglas adds 71 votes, estimate -60, net -15, negative result (net 4 worse than expected)
Douglas finalized, positive result
Yakima adds 126 votes, estimate -120, net -28, positive result (net 1 better than expected)
Currently Upthegrove +46, projection Upthegrove +57
11AM:
Benton, Pend Oreille, and Columbia finalized, positive results
Columbia adds 6 votes, net -3, negative result (net 3 worse than expected)
Grays Harbor adds 57 votes, net -12, negative result (net 12 worse than expected)
Pierce adds 202 votes, estimate -5, net -1, positive result (net 1 worse than expected, but removes a big X-factor)
Currently Upthegrove +30, projection Upthegrove +41
11:30AM:
Whatcom finalized, neutral result
Klickitat, Pierce, and Wahkiakum finalized, positive results
Klickitat adds 4 votes, net -1, negative result (net 1 worse than expected)
Stevens adds 11 votes, estimate -25, net -3, positive result (net 5 better than expected)
Currently Upthegrove +26, projection Upthegrove +45
12PM:
Asotin adds 61 votes, estimate -25, net -17, negative result (net 11 worse than expected)
Ferry adds 12 votes, estimate -10, net -3, negative result (net 1 worse than expected)
Asotin finalized, positive result
Clallam adds 59 votes, estimate -100, net -10, negative result (net 3 worse than expected)
Currently Pederson +4, projection Upthegrove +30
12:30PM:
Yakima finalized, positive result
Currently Pederson +4, projection Upthegrove +30
1PM:
Grant adds 47 votes, estimate -10, net -11, negative result (net 8 worse than expected)
Grant finalized, positive result
Island adds 178, estimate -10, net -1, negative result (net 1 worse than expected, could have been much better)
Currently Pederson +16, projection Upthegrove +20
1:30PM:
Ferry, Lincoln, and Spokane finalized, positive results
Currently Pederson +16, projection Upthegrove +20
2PM:
Adams and Chelan finalized, positive results
Thurston finalized, negative result
Chelan adds 441 votes, -225 estimate, net -2, positive result (net 11 better than expected)
Currently Pederson +18, projection Upthegrove +32
2:30PM:
Skagit adds 131 votes, estimate -60, net -10, negative result (net 7 worse than expected)
Kittitas adds 1 vote, net 0, neutral result
Pacific adds 67 votes, estimate -67, net -9, negative result (net 2 worse than expected)
Jefferson adds 58, net +4, positive result (net 4 better than expected)
Island and Jefferson finalized, negative results
Grays Harbor, Kittitas, Mason, Okanogan, and Skagit finalized, positive results
Currently Pederson +33, projection Upthegrove +27
3PM:
Snohomish adds 2 votes, net -1, negative result (net 1 worse than expected)
Cowlitz adds 123 votes, net -24, negative result (net 24 worse than expected)
Snohomish finalized, neutral result
Clark, Pacific, and Stevens finalized, positive results
Currently Pederson +58, projection Upthegrove +2
3:30PM:
Garfield finalized, positive result
Currently Pederson +58, projection Upthegrove +2
3:45PM:
Cowlitz finalized, positive result
King adds 681 votes, estimate -300, net +139, great result (net 71 better than expected)
Currently Upthegrove +81, projection Upthegrove +73
4PM:
King finalized, negative result
Currently Upthegrove +81, projection Upthegrove +73
4:15PM:
Whitman adds 119 votes, estimate -15, net -10, negative result (net 9 worse than expected)
Walla Walla adds 110 votes, estimate -50, net -20, negative result (net 13 worse than expected)
Walla Walla and Whitman finalized, positive results
Clallam, Franklin, Kitsap, and Mason (de-finalized?) are still not finalized, but I don't expect they will produce additional votes.
Possibly final result: Upthegrove +51
5:30PM:
And now all counties have finalized their results, meaning Upthegrove should enter the manual recount with a seemingly comfortable lead of 51.
Is the "projection" what you projected the result to be at this point or your projection of what it will ultimately end up as?
The projection figure uses counties' estimated outstanding votes at the time of the update for a guess at the final result.
At the moment, Upthegrove's lead is 46 votes with an estimated 902 ballots left to count. Of those 902, the majority will go to candidates other than Peterson and Upthegrove. It will be close. The final will certainly meet the requirements for a machine recount. To meet the requirements of a required manual recount, the lead must be less than 150 votes. https://www.sos.wa.gov/recounts-washington-state
Upthegrove now leads by six votes. 395,915 to 395,909.
Wow! How close is that to a final initial tally?
King County finalized its votes, putting Upthegrove ahead by 81 votes with an estimated 65 left to count. Subject to the recount, the Dems seem to have avoided a lock-out in this top-two primary.
And it looks like we may have a final margin, at Upthegrove +51.
So we may have dodged a bullet, but I hope Democrats learn a lesson from this.
Agreed.. They need to have the state lege tweek the rules
There's a role for voters to play, regardless of legislation.
What are the WA recount rules and processes?
Assuming the margin is under 150 votes, there will be a mandatory hand recount with observers. I don't believe that previously rejected ballots are reviewed, but I'm not certain on that point.
It seems that Chelan finalized with Pederson gaining only two votes? Your projection should have Upthegrove lead almost doubles to 40? Lol
King County finalized its votes, putting Upthegrove ahead by 81 votes with an estimated 65 left to count. Subject to the recount, the Dems seem to have avoided a lock-out in this top-two primary.
Wow!