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GoUBears's avatar

Update thread:

9AM PDT:

Lewis and Skamania finalized, positive results

Garfield +10 votes, estimate -9, net 0, positive result (net 2 better than expected)

Currently Upthegrove +192, projection Upthegrove +72

9:30AM:

Pacific increases estimate by 54, negative result

Currently Upthegrove +192, projection Upthegrove +66

10AM:

Pend Oreille adds 1 for Pederson, negative result (net 1 worse than expected)

San Juan finalized, negative result

Adams adds 38 votes, net -11, negative result (net 11 worse than expected)

Currently Upthegrove +180, projection Upthegrove +54 (uses rounded figures)

10:30AM:

Benton adds 376 votes, estimate -377, net -91, positive result (net 6 better than expected and removes biggest X-factor)

Kitsap adds 1 vote, estimate -1, net 0, neutral result

Douglas adds 71 votes, estimate -60, net -15, negative result (net 4 worse than expected)

Douglas finalized, positive result

Yakima adds 126 votes, estimate -120, net -28, positive result (net 1 better than expected)

Currently Upthegrove +46, projection Upthegrove +57

11AM:

Benton, Pend Oreille, and Columbia finalized, positive results

Columbia adds 6 votes, net -3, negative result (net 3 worse than expected)

Grays Harbor adds 57 votes, net -12, negative result (net 12 worse than expected)

Pierce adds 202 votes, estimate -5, net -1, positive result (net 1 worse than expected, but removes a big X-factor)

Currently Upthegrove +30, projection Upthegrove +41

11:30AM:

Whatcom finalized, neutral result

Klickitat, Pierce, and Wahkiakum finalized, positive results

Klickitat adds 4 votes, net -1, negative result (net 1 worse than expected)

Stevens adds 11 votes, estimate -25, net -3, positive result (net 5 better than expected)

Currently Upthegrove +26, projection Upthegrove +45

12PM:

Asotin adds 61 votes, estimate -25, net -17, negative result (net 11 worse than expected)

Ferry adds 12 votes, estimate -10, net -3, negative result (net 1 worse than expected)

Asotin finalized, positive result

Clallam adds 59 votes, estimate -100, net -10, negative result (net 3 worse than expected)

Currently Pederson +4, projection Upthegrove +30

12:30PM:

Yakima finalized, positive result

Currently Pederson +4, projection Upthegrove +30

1PM:

Grant adds 47 votes, estimate -10, net -11, negative result (net 8 worse than expected)

Grant finalized, positive result

Island adds 178, estimate -10, net -1, negative result (net 1 worse than expected, could have been much better)

Currently Pederson +16, projection Upthegrove +20

1:30PM:

Ferry, Lincoln, and Spokane finalized, positive results

Currently Pederson +16, projection Upthegrove +20

2PM:

Adams and Chelan finalized, positive results

Thurston finalized, negative result

Chelan adds 441 votes, -225 estimate, net -2, positive result (net 11 better than expected)

Currently Pederson +18, projection Upthegrove +32

2:30PM:

Skagit adds 131 votes, estimate -60, net -10, negative result (net 7 worse than expected)

Kittitas adds 1 vote, net 0, neutral result

Pacific adds 67 votes, estimate -67, net -9, negative result (net 2 worse than expected)

Jefferson adds 58, net +4, positive result (net 4 better than expected)

Island and Jefferson finalized, negative results

Grays Harbor, Kittitas, Mason, Okanogan, and Skagit finalized, positive results

Currently Pederson +33, projection Upthegrove +27

3PM:

Snohomish adds 2 votes, net -1, negative result (net 1 worse than expected)

Cowlitz adds 123 votes, net -24, negative result (net 24 worse than expected)

Snohomish finalized, neutral result

Clark, Pacific, and Stevens finalized, positive results

Currently Pederson +58, projection Upthegrove +2

3:30PM:

Garfield finalized, positive result

Currently Pederson +58, projection Upthegrove +2

3:45PM:

Cowlitz finalized, positive result

King adds 681 votes, estimate -300, net +139, great result (net 71 better than expected)

Currently Upthegrove +81, projection Upthegrove +73

4PM:

King finalized, negative result

Currently Upthegrove +81, projection Upthegrove +73

4:15PM:

Whitman adds 119 votes, estimate -15, net -10, negative result (net 9 worse than expected)

Walla Walla adds 110 votes, estimate -50, net -20, negative result (net 13 worse than expected)

Walla Walla and Whitman finalized, positive results

Clallam, Franklin, Kitsap, and Mason (de-finalized?) are still not finalized, but I don't expect they will produce additional votes.

Possibly final result: Upthegrove +51

5:30PM:

And now all counties have finalized their results, meaning Upthegrove should enter the manual recount with a seemingly comfortable lead of 51.

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Jseal's avatar

Is the "projection" what you projected the result to be at this point or your projection of what it will ultimately end up as?

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GoUBears's avatar

The projection figure uses counties' estimated outstanding votes at the time of the update for a guess at the final result.

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hilltopper's avatar

At the moment, Upthegrove's lead is 46 votes with an estimated 902 ballots left to count. Of those 902, the majority will go to candidates other than Peterson and Upthegrove. It will be close. The final will certainly meet the requirements for a machine recount. To meet the requirements of a required manual recount, the lead must be less than 150 votes. https://www.sos.wa.gov/recounts-washington-state

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hilltopper's avatar

Upthegrove now leads by six votes. 395,915 to 395,909.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Wow! How close is that to a final initial tally?

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hilltopper's avatar

King County finalized its votes, putting Upthegrove ahead by 81 votes with an estimated 65 left to count. Subject to the recount, the Dems seem to have avoided a lock-out in this top-two primary.

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GoUBears's avatar

And it looks like we may have a final margin, at Upthegrove +51.

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michaelflutist's avatar

So we may have dodged a bullet, but I hope Democrats learn a lesson from this.

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Jonathan's avatar

Agreed.. They need to have the state lege tweek the rules

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michaelflutist's avatar

There's a role for voters to play, regardless of legislation.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

What are the WA recount rules and processes?

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GoUBears's avatar

Assuming the margin is under 150 votes, there will be a mandatory hand recount with observers. I don't believe that previously rejected ballots are reviewed, but I'm not certain on that point.

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axlee's avatar

It seems that Chelan finalized with Pederson gaining only two votes? Your projection should have Upthegrove lead almost doubles to 40? Lol

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hilltopper's avatar

King County finalized its votes, putting Upthegrove ahead by 81 votes with an estimated 65 left to count. Subject to the recount, the Dems seem to have avoided a lock-out in this top-two primary.

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axlee's avatar

Wow!

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