I would attribute these shifts to ancestral Democrats—especially in Appalachian areas—who were already voting Republican, but lagging behind on actually changing their registration status. That was undoubtedly still a factor, but in retrospect probably an overrated one.
These numbers highlight how Trump’s registration gains were made u…
I would attribute these shifts to ancestral Democrats—especially in Appalachian areas—who were already voting Republican, but lagging behind on actually changing their registration status. That was undoubtedly still a factor, but in retrospect probably an overrated one.
These numbers highlight how Trump’s registration gains were made up of two distinct phases. The initial phase took place during his first campaign, when Trump won over Southwest residents and saw a surge of support in rural areas. In the second phase, which began during the 2020 cycle and continued on into 2024, the Trump campaign targeted traditional non-voters, particularly non-white young men, in cities like Allentown, Bethlehem, Lehigh, Philadelphia, and Wilkes-Barre.
In 2024 registered Republicans outvoted registered Democrats in an even-year general election for the first time in Pennsylvania’s history.
My usual commentary on Pennsylvania partisan voter reg: sure, the state has gone from a 12 point Dem edge to just a 2 point Dem edge in the past decade. Does the state actually seem 10 points redder than 2015 though? Compared to Trump's first win, the state only moved a single point to the right, and this coincided with the national popular vote moving 3.5 points to the right. Indeed many other states got far redder in the past decade than PA, including NY and NJ, which did so without any substantial surge in GOP voter registration. As always, I think partisan voter reg is a lagging indicator, just a small part of the story. A lot of attention was placed on FL voter reg the past few years, but amazingly its resulting red shift was almost matched by MA of all states (which retains its lopsided Dem voter reg)...
PA:
I would attribute these shifts to ancestral Democrats—especially in Appalachian areas—who were already voting Republican, but lagging behind on actually changing their registration status. That was undoubtedly still a factor, but in retrospect probably an overrated one.
These numbers highlight how Trump’s registration gains were made up of two distinct phases. The initial phase took place during his first campaign, when Trump won over Southwest residents and saw a surge of support in rural areas. In the second phase, which began during the 2020 cycle and continued on into 2024, the Trump campaign targeted traditional non-voters, particularly non-white young men, in cities like Allentown, Bethlehem, Lehigh, Philadelphia, and Wilkes-Barre.
In 2024 registered Republicans outvoted registered Democrats in an even-year general election for the first time in Pennsylvania’s history.
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/how-donald-trump-changed-pennsylvanias-electorate-tracking-voter-registration-trends-over-the-past-decade/
My usual commentary on Pennsylvania partisan voter reg: sure, the state has gone from a 12 point Dem edge to just a 2 point Dem edge in the past decade. Does the state actually seem 10 points redder than 2015 though? Compared to Trump's first win, the state only moved a single point to the right, and this coincided with the national popular vote moving 3.5 points to the right. Indeed many other states got far redder in the past decade than PA, including NY and NJ, which did so without any substantial surge in GOP voter registration. As always, I think partisan voter reg is a lagging indicator, just a small part of the story. A lot of attention was placed on FL voter reg the past few years, but amazingly its resulting red shift was almost matched by MA of all states (which retains its lopsided Dem voter reg)...